Priority number one for the Pittsburgh Steelers after six years of subpar quarterback play is finding a long-term solution at the position. Without a franchise quarterback, everything else is just spinning wheels without a true shot at winning the Super Bowl. Of the eight teams in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, all have franchise quarterbacks.
Two of those teams—the Houston Texans and Washington Commanders—offer a glimmer of hope as they went from bottom dwellers to contenders almost immediately after landing their quarterbacks. But they had one thing in common: each were both picking in the second spot of their respective drafts.
Do the Steelers need a high draft pick to find their quarterback of the future? Head coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t think so.
“Lamar [Jackson] wasn’t taken at the top of the draft,” Tomlin said Tuesday during his end-of-season press conference on the Steelers YouTube. “[Jalen] Hurts wasn’t taken in the first round. So I don’t know that I necessarily agree with the question.”
It’s true, Jackson was taken with the 32nd pick of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Baltimore Ravens. But that was back when the jury was still out on athletic, mobile quarterbacks. People spent years arguing if Jackson should be a wide receiver or a running back instead. It wasn’t like he was flying under the radar, either. Jackson won the Heisman Trophy at Louisville. In a lot of ways, Jackson paved the way for a guy like Jayden Daniels to get selected at No. 2 overall.
Hurts is a better example, with the Philadelphia Eagles using the 53rd pick of the 2020 NFL Draft to take him in the second round. But that year had generational talents at quarterback at the top of the draft. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love all went in the first round. There’s been just shy of a billion dollars in second contracts given to the first-round QBs in that draft alone. That makes it more likely that one gets pushed down a little further, which is not the expected situation in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The reality is, there are very few quarterbacks who pan out that aren’t drafted in the first round. There are even fewer picked outside of the top 20. With the Steelers selecting at No. 21 this year, here is a complete list of every quarterback since 2000 who has made a Pro Bowl after getting drafted pick No. 21 or later, including undrafted players.
| Player | Pick | Pro Bowls | Playoff Wins |
Super Bowl Wins
|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24 | 10 | 11 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 32 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 32 | 13 | 9 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 53 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 75 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 88 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 102 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 108 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 135 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Marc Bulger | 168 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew II | 178 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 180 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 199 | 15 | 35 | 7 |
| Derek Anderson | 213 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 230 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 262 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | UDFA | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | UDFA | 1 | 0 | 0 |
There are some obvious outliers like Tom Brady and Tony Romo, but franchise quarterbacks are almost always taken in the top 20 of the first round. I would argue that Jackson, Rodgers, Brees, and obviously Brady are the exception and not the rule.
If you go down the above list, how many would you actually label as franchise quarterbacks? If you toss the single-appearance Pro Bowlers who never won a playoff game, the list of 23 players gets whittled down to 17. If you really nitpick and take out players with one or fewer playoff wins, the list narrows down to 10. That throws out Cousins, who probably deserves to remain on the list, but we will sub him in for Foles, who nobody is confusing for a franchise quarterback. The true list is 10 players long over the last 25 drafts, and I think the jury is still out on Purdy.
Even with franchise QBs, this shows how difficult it is to win in the playoffs. Jackson just logged his third career playoff win while Prescott and Romo only have two apiece. Only five of those 10 have won Super Bowls and seven of those were by Brady, who remains the biggest outlier of all time.
While Tomlin is technically correct, the odds are greatly stacked against teams that look to land their franchise quarterback outside the top 20 picks. Since the Steelers have never fallen below .500 with Tomlin, that likely means trading a big package of picks to move up in the first round to land their quarterback of the future. Is the supposedly weak 2025 QB class the time to do that? Probably not.
Shedeur Sanders, Cameron Ward, Jalen Milroe, Quinn Ewers, Will Howard, Riley Leonard, Kyle McCord, and Jaxson Dart are some of the names that will be talked about. But much like Kenny Pickett’s year, there will be plenty of disagreements on the top guy, and it’s not unthinkable that there will only be two picked in the first round (Sanders and Ward). If the Steelers have one they like, that could work to their advantage, but it doesn’t scream the ideal scenario to find a franchise QB.
