With yet another one-and-done playoff appearance, this time in embarrassing fashion to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ biggest rival, there are going to be a lot of calls for Mike Tomlin to either lose his job or be traded. While I am not sold on either of those outcomes being likely, I think firing him outright with three years remaining on his contract is less likely than a potential trade.
Adam Schefter reported last week that a team has already reached out to the Steelers about a potential trade for Tomlin, learning of a no-trade clause in his contract in the process. That doesn’t mean a trade isn’t possible, just that Tomlin has the right to refuse if he doesn’t like the destination. According to Schefter, there’s been “no indication” that the Steelers are moving on from Tomlin, but the wound from their 28-14 loss to the Baltimore Ravens is still very fresh and I am sure the organization is still formulating a plan to move forward.
One former NFL scout thinks the Steelers need to trade Tomlin now while he still has some value.
“When you look at Mike Tomlin, I don’t think it’s crazy, it’s time,” said John Middlekauff via his 3 and Out podcast on YouTube. “Luckily for them his value is still really high.”
We have all heard various pundits discussing the possibility of the Steelers moving on from Tomlin and their biggest defense of him is that 30 other teams would immediately be trying to figure out how to attract him to their organization. It’s possible that Tomlin’s message has just become stale in Pittsburgh and that a different voice can spark some positive changes. But the longer the Steelers wait, and the more years that they sneak into the playoffs only to get trounced, his trade value could decrease.
“Look at some of these teams that need coaches. The Jag[uars] are a joke. They’d die for Mike Tomlin. The Jets are even a bigger joke…The Bears, can you imagine how excited the Bears would be to have Mike Tomlin as their head coach?” Middlekauff said. “But how many more years can you just [say], ‘Oh we went 9-8 and then we got curb stomped in the first round as the seven seed’ and him still have the same value? It’s eventually gonna get to a point of diminishing returns.”
Of the teams that Middlekauff listed, I can’t imagine Tomlin wanting to deal with the bleak outlook of New York. The other two teams at least have potentially promising quarterbacks.
The reality is head coach trades are extremely rare in the NFL. In the late 1990s and early 2000s they were more common, but 2006 was the last real trade for a head coach. The other two that were more recent (Sean Payton and Bruce Arians) involved two coaches who were retired. The only reason a trade was necessary is because their previous teams still held contract rights.
It’s a bit of a paradox for Steelers fans who want to see Tomlin gone. With how badly a good chunk of the fan base wants him gone, how could he possibly be worth significant draft capital in return?
“These teams are so desperate, could you get multiple second-round picks?” Middlekauff wondered. “Could you get a future one? Could you get like a second this year and a one next year?”
There is no trade deadline for coaches, so any potential trade could happen as soon as this week. Bruce Arians was traded on Jan. 8, 2019, for example. I’m still not sold on this happening, but the Steelers have to be at least talking through every possible option. If teams are actually reaching out about Tomlin, like Schefter has reported, then it is obviously at least in the back of their minds following another playoff disaster.
