The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) have lost two rough games and continue their tough stretch Christmas Day against the NFL’s best 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Chiefs Patrick Mahomes is a scary talent, facing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has regressed against playoff caliber teams. Doesn’t have the stat dominance he has in past seasons, but has a great supporting cast that he point guards efficiently.
This includes things they are great at, ranking first in third down conversion rate, and success rate (fourth). Creating negative plays, capitalizing with splash play turnovers, and situational stops will be key for a regressing Steelers defense against the NFL’s best record.
Mahomes has 543 attempts (second), 3,608 pass yards (seventh), 66.9 completion rate (14th), 23 touchdowns (eighth), 11 interceptions (T-33rd), and 91.2 pass rating (19th) out of qualifiers (43 QBs, min. 120 attempts).
KC also is below average with a 5.8 ANY/A (19th). Adjusted Net Yards Per Passing Attempt is a predictive stat historically great at predicting Super Bowl winners, emphasizing the team efforts around him.
Speaking of which, let’s look at completed and intended air yards:
This visual illustrates Mahomes facilitating to his playmakers quickly. His 3.9 completed air yards and 6.3 intended air yards each rank 41st out of 43 players, and is still top ten in pass yards and touchdowns. Thank goodness Pittsburgh’s defense is getting healthier because they have a stacked deck to account for.
More methodical than explosive air yardage, including the Steelers. For comparison, Russell Wilson has 6.3 completed air yards (tenth) and 7.9 intended air yards (17th), with the former 2.4 yards more than Mahomes. More surprising is Justin Fields’ larger numbers, in what felt like a very conservative opening six weeks, compared to Wilson’s deep ball reputation.
So, we see the quick/short game is ever apparent and lethal for the Chiefs. You’d think a quick release would match such low air yards, but Mahomes still creates magic with play extension. Usually to throw, but also can use his legs if advantageous.
TIGHT ENDS – Speaking of which, Travis Kelce is his security blanket. They have a fantastic chemistry, en route to 122 targets, second-most at the position. The narrative of a less than season is more in yardage (739, fifth), 73.0 catch rate (20th), and only two touchdowns (17th) out of 34 qualifiers (min. 38 targets) after dominating many stats in prior seasons.
In comparison, here are Steeler Pat Freiermuth’s numbers: 59 targets (T-19th), 510 yards (14th), 84.7 catch rate (second), and six touchdowns (T-fourth). Sure hands has been a steady theme. The latter is an encouraging development, with three TDs in the last four games, but none in last week’s loss. Hopefully gets back on the board Week 17.
Interesting things are revealed when looking at intended air yards and yards after catch:
Although Mahomes has a low intended air yards number, the position is targeted at an average distance compared to the rest of the league. Also surprising is Kelce’s low 3.5 yards after catch this year, third least of 34 qualifiers.
Freiermuth is below average in both, with 4.7 YAC being closer to the mean, and 5.9 intended air yards each rank 23rd. Hopefully he has a great game, but their second level on defense will be a tough challenge.
Considering Pittsburgh’s recent missed tackle issues, it would be huge to hold him and their eligibles to low yards after catch. Kelce has a 6.7 intended air yards number (16th), and their TE2 Noah Gray has been targeted similarly, at the following rank (17th). He has the best 5.5 at the position in the matchup, just above the mean and ranks 18th.
Pittsburgh’s defense allowed TEs to go wild last game, but reinforcements hopefully keep that from becoming the storyline. Namely S DeShon Elliott, which allows Minkah Fitzpatrick to return to his best position on the back end.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Perhaps the biggest storyline is Steeler George Pickens set to return following a three-game absence (hamstring). Very opportune time against the two-time defending champs.
He will hopefully ball out, with Wilson likely chomping at the bit to have his top weapon back. Pickens has 90 targets (T-34th), out of 95 qualifiers (min. 38). 61.1 catch rate (60th), 850 yards (24th), and three TDs (T-53rd).
Calvin Austin stepped up most admirably in his absence. Hopefully the unexpected jump in play continues as a formidable complimentary piece moving forward. He now has 52 targets (73rd), 61.5 catch rate (56th), 517 yards (58th), and four TDs (T-42nd).
Chiefs Xavier Worthy has had a strong rookie year, leading their position with 89 targets, 36th Part of this is due to injuries, but the speedster presents a big challenge for Pittsburgh. He has a 57.3 catch rate (75th), 559 yards (50th), and five TDs (T-31st).
They also acquired Deandre Hopkins prior to Week 8, and has been a key part of their successful plays and top rank in third down conversions. On the season, 76 targets (46th), 71.1 catch rate (19th), 611 yards (46th), and five TDs as well (T-31st). Paired with Kelce, superbly reliable targets.
While Pittsburgh is much healthier overall, thankfully, CB Joey Porter Jr. has been ruled out (knee) suffered last game and this quick turnaround. The position must step up to these tough challenges, unlike recent weeks.
Lets look at separation (distance between receiver and nearest defender at catch/incompletion) and yards after catch:
These stats highlight where Worthy has been successful. He is well above average in each, with 3.6 in separation (seventh) and 6.8 yards after catch (tenth). This is extremely concerning considering recent Steelers games, and they must respect and be ready for the youngsters top ten skillset. In comparison, Hopkins is below-average in each; 2.7 separation (64th) and 2.6 YAC (84th).
Pickens 2.3 separation is least of the matchup (91st), which is fourth-least. Illustrates the respect and plastering from defenses, and makes his other stats more impressive. We know from his highlights he’s one of the best contested catch artists in football, and also makes his more average 4.5 YAC (40th) admirable.
Austin 2.8 separation (57th) is below average, but 5.0 YAC is still above the mean (31st). It was even better earlier in 2024, and hopefully positively trends with less attention upon Pickens return.
RUNNING BACKS – A familiar name in Kareem Hunt (former Brown) leads them with 191 carries (18th), 708 yards (28th), 3.7 average (41st), and six touchdowns (T-20th) among qualifiers (49 RBs, min. 75 carries). Isaiah Pacheco’s workload is increasing after injury, and has started 5-of-6 games he’s appeared in, with 3.8 yards per attempt (T-40th).
As a team, they average 4.0 per carry, right at the successful play mark per play. Mahomes has a 5.2 average on 57 attempts, WR Xavier Worthy 5.2 on 18, and RB Samaje Perine 17 carries for 4.8, so a team effort to their success. With Pittsburgh coming off their worst run defense performance of 2024, stopping it against the Chiefs is high priority.
Here’s Pittsburgh’s stats for comparison:
Najee Harris – 238 attempts (T-seventh), 933 yards (14th), 3.9 average (T-35th), five TDs (T-23rd).
Jaylen Warren – 103 attempts (37th), 419 yards (38th), 4.1 average (T-31st), one TD (T-last).
Stats don’t tell the full story, particularly to Kansas City’s success, but a glimmer of hope is revealed in yards after contact and elusive rating (impact of rushing independent of blocking):
Clear advantage for Pittsburgh, but much more success in these terms earlier in 2024. The Steelers need to get back to that against such a strong team, controlling time of possession and keeping their offense on the sidelines. KC’s defense is great against the run though, allowing the third least yardage of 2024. A key battle.
Harris’ better season mark is an above average 79.8 elusive rating, ranking 14th in the NFL. He’s landed above 100 on four occasions this season, Weeks 6-8, and a 118.5 number last week. Bests in the same games with three plus yards after contact in each, 3.56 last game, compared to his below average 2.89 number in 2024 (31st).
Considering the Chiefs strong defense, these numbers will likely need to be strong in hopes of victory. Warren is slightly above the mean in each, with 3.09 yards after contact (23rd) and 72.6 elusive rating (18th). Both Pittsburgh backs are top 20 in the latter, creating more than what’s there. Encouraging, but also hope the o-line plays better. Tough task in competition, third game in 11 days, and so late in the year.
Flipping sides, we see Kansas City rushers have been towards the bottom of the NFL in these terms. Of 49 RBs, Pacheco has the absolute worst 24.3 elusive rating, and Hunt at fourth least (35.2). Yards after contact has also lacked: Hunt 2.51 (44th), Pacheco 2.4 (second-least). When they are successful, it has been more dependent on blocking.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades for the starters (min. 500 snaps) through Week 16:
Clear edge to KC overall, including the only three expected starters in the matchup above the mean in both. Key to their success in rushing, and four of their snaps leaders above the mean as pass blockers. There are injuries and uncertainty at tackle, which will hopefully bode well for Pittsburgh’s edge rushers.
Chiefs Week 16 starting OL:
LT Joe Thuney (13 starts at LG): 75.0 RBLK (16th/92), 82.5 PBLK (1st)
LG Mike Caliendo (172 snaps): 46.9 RBLK (75th/79), 61.3 PBLK (53rd)
C Creed Humphrey: 91.5 RBLK (2nd/47th), 90.1 PBLK (1st)
RG Trey Smith: 80.2 RBLK (10th/79), 68.9 PBLK (26th)
RT Jawan Taylor (questionable-knee): 58.0 RBLK (63rd/92), 73.1 PBLK (36th)
I’m sure many NFL draft fans “love” seeing Humphrey as one of the best graded linemen in football. Thuney is also a top ranked PBLK alongside him, but has only started twice at left tackle the last two games, with worse grades. EDGE Alex Highsmith will hopefully take advantage. Smith is also top ten in RBLK, so their interior provides their rushers good opportunities.
But Caliendo has barely played, and been a weak link in comparison along with Taylor. The latter is the key RT position to watch, drawing a key matchup against star EDGE T.J. Watt. Hopefully he looks spryer, on a short week following an ankle injury he’s played through a couple game ago. Also need Cam Heyward and company that’s returning Larry Ogunjobi to win matchups, and chess match on their weak link if Caliendo plays again.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 64.7 RBLK (46th/92), 69.2 PBLK (45th)
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.2 RBLK (22nd/79), 61.6 PBLK (51st)
C Zach Frazier: 78.1 RBLK (6th/47th), 63.5 PBLK (25th)
RG Mason McCormick: 52.4 RBLK (68th/79), 60.1 PBLK (59th)
RT Broderick Jones: 61.8 RBLK (55th/92), 52.1 PBLK (75th)
Frazier still is one of the top graded in RBLK as a rookie, but a clear PBLK edge to Humphrey. The only other decent rank is Seumalo’s RBLK. While the grades are subjective, it is inarguable the unit has regressed as of late. On paper, the circumstances don’t bode well, but they no doubt hold blame for the teams two-game losing streak. Here’s to hoping this, and hearing how the Chiefs are a better team have them ready to prove doubters wrong.
DEFENSE – Pittsburgh faces another tough unit once again, deserving a ton of credits for their league-leading best record.
One of their best in DL Chris Jones is questionable (calf). Practiced limitedly in sights of Christmas Day, and his availability and effectiveness is obviously huge if he plays. Chamarri Conner is out in their secondary, but they are still formidable there and across the entire unit.
Pittsburgh is much healthier, thankfully, and hopefully better results follow. Can’t assume that, as I’ve discussed their regressions, that includes 27 points or more allowed in the last four games. Step up men, or another long day is in store.
Let’s look at some stats:
Pass Yards: Kansas City (17th). Pittsburgh (20th).
Rush Yards: Chiefs (3rd). Steelers (8th).
Rush yards stand out, with KC a stout top three unit. Pittsburgh is still top ten, but plummeted from a fourth rank after getting demolished by Raven Derrick Henry. The Chiefs result is in part to being up in some games, but not the whole story since many games have been close as well. Pittsburgh has a good history in those types of games, and hopefully rekindle that against another great team at closing them out.
Situational success (or lack thereof) is obviously key. Here are season ranks:
Third down: PIT (5th). KC (20th).
Fourth down: Chiefs (T-6th). Steelers (28th).
Red zone: Kansas City (T-8th). Pittsburgh (T-13th).
KC is a top-ten unit in fourth down and red zone, not what you want to see with Pittsburgh struggling there on offense. More advantageous could be on third downs, where the Chiefs defense has been weaker. Any given Sunday though, but that would be huge in the hope for Pittsburgh’s offense to sustain drives, and keep the ball away from Mahomes and company.
The Steelers defense has a fifth rank in third down defense, facing Kansas City’s number one offense. One of the biggest keys to the game, fingers crossed. Red zone has regressed for Pittsburgh as of late, but one of the Chiefs surprising issues on offense. Must get this right in sights of the playoffs, and better laser focus despite that stat.
Fourth down conversions allowed have been abysmal for the Steelers defense, and if they are able to limit KC on third down, must get out of the bottom five in this heartbreaking stat to get off the field. They would definitely welcome that after the last two games.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Week 16 Pass Defense EPA: Pittsburgh (10th). Kansas City (17th).
Week 16 Run Defense EPA: Chiefs (8th). Steelers (16th).
Kansas City is top ten in run defense again. Jones’ availability is obviously a huge factor, but Pittsburgh really needs to focus on their presumed run first identity in hopes of victory. Their pass defense has been more susceptible in comparison, and really hope Pickens return, along with Wilson eliminating dire mistakes makes for an impactful passing day.
Painful to see Pittsburgh’s downward spiral in run defense, compared to being as high as second earlier in 2024. Pass defense is top ten, but has felt worse as I highlighted in the ANY/A article I linked earlier. Returning to their defensive identity will be huge or dire to the outcome of Week 17 Christmas Day.
Here’s to hoping for a win, a nice gift for all of Steelers Nation.
