The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 10-3, going 3-1 in the last four all-important AFC North games, and eliminating the Cleveland Browns from the playoffs most recently after losing the first matchup. While not perfect, there’s much to like about the 27-14 victory, including the passing game stepping up in WR1 George Pickens’ absence.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work, which helped me learn much about what I’m using in the visual series. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision and bats at the line of scrimmage. Four throwaways and a bat were removed.
Wilson went 15-of-26 on the stat sheet (57.7 percent) but had four throwaways due to pressure for a 75.0 adjusted completion rate. That’s a telling difference that the baseline stats lack. The offense started rough, including 0-for-5 on third down, including four three-and-outs. 158 passing yards (400-plus Week 13), and some accuracy issues (particularly early) atop my list. In typical fashion, they improved through the game.
Other positives included two touchdowns, red zone improvements, no interceptions, and just one sack, which was impressive in duress often. Rolling, extending, and even read-option keeping. It is not required often, but four explosive pass plays, including two pretty moon balls and two over the middle to TE Pat Freiermuth, refreshingly. They did miss on a couple of go balls, targeting players that lack that skillset, especially compared to Pickens.
Overall, though, putting up that many points, even though it clearly wasn’t the offense’s best day, is encouraging. Hopefully, it will trend that way with a hot 11-2 Eagles team (nine-game winning streak) up next.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 21 charted passes, with the number of throws at each pass distance for Week 14:
#1. Behind-the-Line: 33.3-percent. Seven passes. The first charted pass was a 2nd and 2. Wilson’s play-action rolls right, having to sidearm past the rush and get past TE MyCole Pruitt, who chip released to the flat. Had to backtrack for the catch, and tackled quick for a loss of one.
On drive three, Cordarrelle Patterson went in motion and got the pass five yards behind the line, also tackled quickly behind the line for a loss of two.
Went back to the distance in the second quarter after early failures. This one was a red zone screen to Freiermuth, with Wilson getting it out despite pressure and blocks in front for seven successful yards.
The next drive was an unfortunate 1st and 20 situation, with RB Jaylen Warren getting this screen target, and enjoying good blocking. It was a great burst between two defenders for a nice YAC for an 11-yard gain.
Following play, it’s back to Warren, lined up out wide. The ball took a while to get there, giving the DB time to get downhill for the hit that jarred the ball loose incomplete.
Third quarter now. Wilson fake reverses to Warren then dumps it to him wide open with nice YAC to the red zone for 14 yards on 2nd and 6. Same drive, Calvin Austin got the WR screen with one good block, but three defenders corralled the four-yard gain.
Mixed results.
T-2nd. 5-10 air-yards: 19.0-percent. Four examples. On drive three, it’s 2nd and 12. Nice pickup on an out route to WR Scotty Miller for eight yards. The ensuing 3rd and 4 was a controversial intentional grounding call for the second three-and-out of the game.
3rd and 9, second quarter. Wilson takes the out route to Williams short of the sticks at seven air yards, unable to get any YAC on a conservative drive preceded by screens, settling for a FG.
Next drive, it’s another Williams target. This second and ten was 16 seconds till halftime, a stop route that was also at seven air yards, content going to the locker room with a 13-7 lead and still in their own territory.
A third quarter 2nd was a 6 RPO. Nice play fake from Wilson, then starting to scramble, sees WR Van Jefferson work upfield off of his stop route to the open area for the catch near the goal line and 10-yard red zone touchdown. It’s not the prettiest exchange, bobbling and stumbling in on the low pass, but it’s a huge connection to go up 20-7.
T-2nd. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 19.0-percent. Four more. First drive, it’s 3rd and 3. Wilson is forced into a scramble drill, with TE Darnell Washington allowing pressure solo on star EDGE Myles Garrett. That’s the first problem, followed by a badly inaccurate throw sailing out of bounds to the wide-open Williams at 40 air yards. First three-and-out, ugh.
Early third quarter now, facing 3rd and 10. Wilson eludes the rush again (G Isaac Seumalo/T Broderick Jones), extending the play and throwing a dime to Freiermuth, who made a great contested catch at 21-air yards over the middle for a 22-yard conversion. Sweet play.
Later in the third quarter, it’s 3rd and 6. Beautiful back shoulder go-ball to Williams, using his hands well (not called for DPI like earlier in the game), then plucking it one-handed and securing the catch for the slick conversion to the red zone.
With 5:53 left in the game, 3rd and 7 up 13 points, Wilson delivers a huge go-ball despite a QB hit (T Dan Moore), great job getting it accurately to Miller. He also made a wow catch, filling the void of Pickens’ absence with an impressive toe-tap drag just inbounds. Exciting play before the unfortunate Patterson fumble turnover, that could have set up a bigger lead.
Interestingly, all four explosives air yard passes were 3rd downs, converting on three 3rd-and-longs (six yards or more). Encouraging flipside of early third down struggles.
T-4th. 0-5 air-yards: 14.3-percent. Three passes. Late first quarter, Wilson gets the quick screen to Miller at the line of scrimmage, wide-open with good YAC for nine yards on 1st and 10.
Early second quarter, you guessed it, another quick WR screen. This one was terribly inaccurate, seemingly coming out of his hand wrong, a good three yards ahead of Austin incomplete.
Pittsburgh is in the red zone late in the third quarter. Wilson is able to get it away despite another quarterback hit (Jones), flipping it towards Warren in the flat short, doing well just to avoid the sack on 1st and 10.
T-4th. 15-20 air-yards: 14.3-percent. Also three. 3rd and 1, end of the first quarter. Wilson decisively goes to Miller, but not as you might expect. It’s a fade route, wildly outside of him with no chance on the ball on the third three-and-out of the first quarter. That’s your best play with one yard to gain?
Late third quarter got better. Wilson looked left where the safety followed his eyes, then worked back to Freiermuth who ran a seam up the middle, and the laser throw gets between two defenders at 15 air yards and falls in on the 20-yard red zone touchdown! 27-7 lead in the teams’ nice third quarter.
3rd and 5, early fourth quarter. Wilson’s in an empty set, and it’s another failed fade thrown wide to the receiver out of bounds, this time to Austin. Accuracy/not on the same page, along with having better fits on the roster to run those routes (Pickens and Williams in particular).
#6. 10-15 air-yards: 4.8-percent. Just one play, the encouraging and aforementioned Freiermuth TD.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Mostly ten air yards or less. The between-the-number connection with Freiermuth was great, including the explosive air yardage and the 15-air-yard TD. Go balls included less air yardage, with Wilson having to get rid of the ball quickly. Three targets of 21 air yards and the longest 40 air-yard throw were unfortunately inaccurate to Williams early.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 6/7 (85.7-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 1/3 (84.2-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 4/4 (100.0-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 1/1 (100-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 1/3 (33.3-percent).
Explosive: 3/4 (75.0-percent).
Great rates overall, with 15-20 yards being the exception.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 7/12 (58.3-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 1/1 (100-percent).
Inside hashes: 0/0 (N/A).
Right hash-right numbers: 7/7 (100-percent).
Outside right numbers: 0/1 (0-percent).
Perfect rates between the hash and numbers on both sides of the field which has become a nice theme. Outside the numbers was used far more to the left, with mixed results, and didn’t target the extreme middle of the field between the hashes.
Now for the heat maps for charted passes, then completions only:
Not the most inspiring charts in terms of depth, but quality over quantity considering the long 40-yard attempt was the main drop-off on the completions-only chart.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 343 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 39.7-percent. Previously 41.9-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 24.5-percent. Previously 24.8-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: 15.7-percent. Previously 14.6-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#4. Explosive: 15.2-percent. Previously 14.9-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.0-percent. Previously 9.3-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 7.0-percent. Previously 6.5-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
Behind the line moved up a spot over explosives this week. Both upticked, the former most substantially (1.1 percent). The other increase was 15-20. 0-5 air yards was the biggest downtick (2.2 percent). 5-10 and 10-15 also decreased.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 30/34 (88.2-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 55/71 (77.5-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 27/42 (64.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 9/15 (60.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 9/15 (60.0-percent).
Explosive: 18/31 (58.1-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6-percent).
Fields was stronger at 0-10 air yards, while behind the line and past ten-yard rates have been better with Wilson. Particularly explosives, with his rate more than doubling Fields’. Wow.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 37/62 (59.7-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 35/41 (85.4-percent).
Inside hashes: 8/12 (66.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 33/38 (86.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 28/39 (71.8-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/33 (78.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 20/31 (64.5-percent).
Wilson has stellar rates between the numbers and hashes, over 85 percent on both sides, whew. Outside the right numbers has been better than the more frequent other side, and between the hashes is by far the least targeted and lowest completion rate. Comparing to Fields is also interesting.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
