Though the Pittsburgh Steelers have punched their ticket to the playoffs, there’s plenty of uncertainty over where they’ll finish and who they’ll see on Wild Card weekend. New data from ESPN analytics whiz Seth Walder helps clear up the picture.
In projection data he shared Monday, the Steelers’ most likely seeds for the playoffs are the No. 3 and No. 5 spots. Here are the odds for each slot, minus the No. 1 seed they’ve already been eliminated from.
No. 2 seed: 1.7 percent
No. 3 seed: 36.2 percent
No. 4 seed: 9.2 percent
No. 5 seed: 42.3 percent
No. 6 seed: 9.3 percent
No. 7 seed: 1.3 percent
The No. 3 versus No. 5 seed will be determined by whether or not they hang on to win the division. Winning out or the Baltimore Ravens losing out clinches the AFC North for Pittsburgh. The Steelers and Ravens splitting losses get more complicated.
Using that chart and assuming the Steelers grab the No. 3 or No. 5 seed, their two most likely opponents are the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans. Those are the teams that have the highest chance of being the No. 6 seed, which Pittsburgh would play if it ends up the No. 3 seed, and the No. 4 seed, which Pittsburgh would play if it ends up the No. 5 seed.
The Steelers beat the Chargers once this season, back in Week 3, dominating the second half in a 2o-10 win. That came against a hobbled QB, Justin Herbert, who was unable to finish the game with a high ankle sprain, and a healthy Herbert changes the complexion of a rematch. Of course, Pittsburgh wasn’t starting Russell Wilson then, either. Both defenses have faded in recent weeks after hot starts.
The Texans have locked up the AFC South but don’t look nearly as potent as a season ago. QB C.J. Stroud has regressed and just lost one of his top targets, WR Tank Dell, who was injured Saturday with a torn ACL and dislocated kneecap. Still, they bring a top-10 scoring defense with a strong pass rush that could give Pittsburgh’s o-line fits.
Of course, the Steelers could end up in some other scenario in which they have a different seed and play a different opponent. With two weeks to go, much is unsettled. Though Pittsburgh can’t clinch or lose the division by the end of this weekend, it could have a better idea of its playoff path by next Monday.
