The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) are prepping for the Baltimore Ravens (7-3), an important game for positioning atop the division. Pittsburgh is on a four game winning streak, currently providing a great balance in terms of AFC North Data Points. Baltimore’s offense is tops in the league in several regards, with a strong run defense but struggling against the pass, and on a two-game winning streak. Let’s dive into the matchup.
QUARTERBACKS – Raven Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber year, still doing his thing with his legs, along with making serious strides as a passer. 2,669 pass yards (second), on 288 attempts (13th), 69.1 completion rate (seventh), 9.3 YPA (first), 8.9 ADOT (ninth), a whopping 24 TDs (T-first) and just two INTs (T-fifth) out of 39 QBs (min. 83 attempts).
Impressive marks, leading to Jackson topping several stats. Included are passer rating (RAT) and TD/INT ratio (TIR):
Jackson ranks first in both, with an excellent 123.2 RAT (second-best is 108.1), and a whopping 22 TIR, two more than any other qualifier. Their passing game has become one of the most prolific in the NFL and will be a big challenge for Pittsburgh’s pass defense success.
Steeler Russell Wilson can’t compete with Jackson’s season totals, playing in just three games, hence the lower five TIR (6 TDs, 1 INT, T-15th). That is more than Justin Fields (six games played) already. Wilson’s encouraging play is highlighted by a third-ranked 105.9 RAT, bringing life to Pittsburgh’s pass game.
They take a longer time to throw than most: Jackson (second), Wilson (sixth). The latter has attacked downfield 10.8 ADOT (third) with 8.7 YPA (third). The flipside to the encouraging aggressiveness is a 58.8 completion rate (second-worst). More air yardage than Jackson, who’s leading the NFL in YPA, so shorter and YAC from playmakers.
Jackson has avoided tight coverage (third-least), while Wilson has fourth-most. Takeaways for Pittsburgh’s defense could come via fumbles, while Baltimore’s struggling pass D could have more opportunities on the ball.
Then, Jackson’s rushing. Here are QBs with 350-plus rush yards:
Jackson has the most QB rush yards (538), the only one with 500-plus. Pittsburgh just faced Washington’s Jayden Daniels, who ranks second and were successful in limiting him to just five rush yards in Week Ten.
Jackson is in a league of his own though, but this recent success, along with limiting Jackson in the past is encouraging to that hope. He does have six fumbles (T-fourth most), facing Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt (T-first in FF).
RUNNING BACKS – Baltimore added another MVP-level player in Derrick Henry, who’s flourishing. Here are the NFL’s top rushers:
Henry is the NFL’s only thousand-yard rusher through ten games (1,120), wow. Having leaders at both running back and QB equals a number-one rushing offense. Pittsburgh’s run defense ties for third in YPA, and this tough test will be a bloodbath. Can’t wait to see who comes out on top.
Henry also has a league-leading 184 attempts, 6.1 YPA, and 12 TDs. The latter is four more than any other RB. This could be the case again considering his special talents, and how things played out against a similarly structured Commanders offense, with Pittsburgh allowing three red zone touchdowns to RBs. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
Steeler Najee Harris has 645 rushing yards, ranking 15th through Week Ten. 157 attempts (eighth), 4.1 YPA (31st) and three TDs (T-24th) out of 48 qualifiers (min. 55 attempts). Pittsburgh has more of a committee approach, particularly Jaylen Warren: 55 attempts, 217 yards, 3.9 YPA. He’s questionable though (back), and is really fighting injuries in 2024.
That of course affects Harris’ totals, but could lean more on him if Warren’s out, and leave more opportunity for Cordarrelle Patterson.
Let’s look at eight men in the box rates (8MIB) and efficiency (lower numbers = north/south runners):
It hasn’t been a lack of trying on Henry, with defenses employing 36.3 8MIB, tops in the league. This emphasizes another layer to his impressive year. Henry has also been one of the most vertical runners, with the third quickest EFF.
So, not a lot of dancing around, getting to where he wants to go quickly. Interestingly, his time to the line (TLOS) is lower at 24th. Bottling him up before he gets a head of steam should be Pittsburgh’s priority.
Harris has seen 22.3 8MIB (15th), above average, but over ten-percent less than Henry. The former also has the worst EFF in the matchup (35th), part of that due to Pittsburgh’s heavier outside zone schemes, while Baltimore has a closer split with inside runs. This also puts Harris’ TLOS at 39th, so much more east/west than Henry.
Warren has seen the least 14.5 8 MIB (40th) of the matchup. One reason is his higher usage in passing situations and is also below the mean in EFF (27th). That’s 12 spots higher than Harris’ rank, and 30th TLOS (10 spots), so we’re seeing Warren get north/south quicker in OC Arthur Smith’s system.
Baltimore has the NFL’s top YPA defense (3.4), compared to a league-worst in pass yards. While the Steelers have a run-first mentality, leaning on the passing game may be more advantageous and required.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Much better Ravens room than in the past. Zay Flowers leads the matchup with 73 targets (11th), along with 50 catches (T-ninth), 688 yards (fifth), and three TDs (T-23rd). HC Mike Tomlin has a ton of respect for Flowers and will be interesting to see his coverage plan.
For comparison, Steeler George Pickens has 65 targets (18th), 40 catches (T-19th), 639 yards (ninth), and two TDs (T-48th) out of 89 qualifiers (min. 28 targets). Fresh off a game providing spectacular plays, hopefully reoccurring against a secondary littered with strong names, but poor results.
Baltimore’s Rashod Bateman has been their second-most targeted at 47 (T-43rd), with 31 catches (T-42nd), 501 yards (22nd), and four TDs (T-15th). Quality over quantity, and could have a big day with everything Pittsburgh’s defense has to account for.
They also traded for former Steeler Diontae Johnson, who has just six yards, on two targets in as many games in Baltimore. Was with Carolina (via CB Donte Jackson trade), and has 60 targets (T-23rd), 31 catches (T-42nd), 363 yards (53rd), and three TDs (T-23rd) total in 2024. You know he’d like more involvement being back in the Steel City.
Calvin Austin is Pittsburgh’s other qualifier: 31 targets (T-79th), 16 catches (T-85th), 277 yards (69th), and two TDs (T-48th). Though he’s made some plays, connection with Wilson has been spotty (51.6, 79th), on my radar for hopeful improvement.
Here are average separation (SEP) and yards after catch (YAC) for WRs this season:
Flowers has provided a scary combination, with 4.2 SEP (third) and 6.8 YAC (13th). Only outlook player above average in both (comfortably). Pittsburgh’s defense has played a lot of zone, but manned up more on a more mobile QB last week. Expecting similar, and if CB1 Joey Porter Jr. covers Flowers most, his first-ranked separation allowed would hopefully limit his impact.
Bateman is also an above the mean separator, at 3.5 (14th), so not a one-man job for Pittsburgh. Not as lethal in YAC (4.1, 45th), just below NFL average, but very close to Pickens (4.2, 41st), who we know has some great YAC contributions.
Though most of Johnson’s 2024 was in a different uniform, we see clearly below average 2.6 SEP (66th) and 3.0 YAC (69th). He has those abilities, but issues in results that also existed in his Pittsburgh days.
Both Steelers qualifiers have below-average SEP, Austin at 2.7 (59th), and particularly Pickens 2.4 (81st, ninth-least). Unsurprising on the latter, the contested go-ball king. His route tree is more varied, and would like to see it improve as well though.
A refreshing, and hopeful reoccurrence is Austin’s 7.4 YAC, tenth-best league-wide. Busting off big plays like his 55-yard TD in Week Three aid this number of course. Calling for explosives from Wilson and company, given that Baltimore’s potent offense leads the NFL in explosive plays.
TIGHT ENDS – The challenges continue. Baltimore has strong TEs: Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Both are utilized often with 36 and 34 targets, each in the top 25. Andrews has 30 catches (T-15th), 357 yards (13th), and five TDs (T-second). Likely’s caught 24 (26th), 271 yards (22nd), and three TDs (T-fifth) out of 31 qualifiers.
The Ravens lead the NFL in red zone offense, with a dangerous 76.7 TD rate, and tied for second-most attempts. The majority of TEs scores have come here, while they’re also explosive play threats.
Steeler Pat Freiermuth sits at 34 targets (T-21st), 29 catches (T-17th), 283 yards (20th), and three TDs (T-fifth). Wilson is spreading the ball around, but want to hear more Muth chants.
Three targets last week was the most Wilson’s thrown to him, and connected for their first TD, in the low red zone. Pittsburgh’s red zone offense ties for 25th this season, well below their opportunities (T-12th), and the Ravens’ results. Big key.
Both teams use heavy TE formations, as I highlighted in this Steelers personnel grouping post a couple of weeks ago. At that time (through Week Eight), Baltimore ran 12 personnel (1RB, 2TE) fourth-most, with the best EPA league-wide. Pittsburgh ranked 11th and sixth, so whichever team can win the 12-personnel battle may be the victor.
Not to say they’re unsuccessful in other groupings, like 11 personnel and 21 which often includes their 300-pound FB Patrick Ricard, but possibly the best TE duo on the field together and often will be challenging.
Here are average intended air yards (IAY) and catch rates (CTH):
This emphasizes how different the two teams have utilized their TEs. The Ravens go downfield with theirs. 9.5 IAY for Andrews leads the NFL, and 8.5 for likely ranks fourth. Big difference in connection: Andrews 83.3 CTH (fourth), Likely 70.6 CTH (20th).
Freiermuth’s 4.9 IAY is well below average (26th, sixth-least), over four yards less than Andrews. These higher percentage throws aid an 85.3 CTH, tying for first among qualifiers. His sure hands are encouraging, but we know Wilson has no problem throwing deep. Let’s give the TEs some action there.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
PBLK grades clearly favor Baltimore overall, and centers lead the matchup in RBLK.
Ravens OL:
LT Ronnie Stanley: 68.2 RBLK (29th/66), 79.7 PBLK (19th).
LG Patrick Mekari: 64.9 RBLK (32nd/62), 75.8 PBLK (8th).
C Tyler Linderbaum: 90.1 RBLK (3rd/32), 71.6 PBLK (5th).
RG Daniel Faalele: 56.7 RBLK (52nd/62), 66.8 PBLK (25th).
RT Roger Rosengarten: 55.5 RBLK (57th/66), 59.2 PBLK (53rd).
The right side of their line clearly has worse grades. That’s Watt’s side, so hoping for a big day. Also getting DL Cam Heyward matched up with Faalele should be a priority, as opposed to Linderbaum: third in RBLK, fifth PBLK among qualifying centers (min. 300 snaps).
EDGE Alex Highsmith unfortunately won’t play (hamstring), but Nick Herbig is set to return and sured up more depth at the trade deadline with Preston Smith. Hopefully step up in his absence, on the stronger side of their o-line.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 68.4 RBLK (28th/66), 74.1 PBLK (27th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.4 RBLK (18th/62), 54.5 PBLK (54th).
C Zach Frazier: 79.8 RBLK (5th/32), 65.2 PBLK (15th).
RG Mason McCormick: 51.9 RBLK (59th/62), 58.9 PBLK (46th).
RT Broderick Jones: 57.8 RBLK (50th/66), 46.9 PBLK (62nd).
Frazier and Moore have the best-balanced grades. Seumalo’s top 20 RBLK is great to see. He has taken lumps in pass pro, but graded worse than his overall play IMO. The same can be said for McCormick, particularly RBLK.
Jones is coming off his best game of 2024, a low bar mind you. Given high grades, including an 82.7 PBLK that I thought was generous, ranking third at the position (min. 50 snaps). Fifth-worst on the season though. Keep your momentum going big fella.
DEFENSE – Ravens EDGE Kyle Van Noy leads them in sacks (7.0, T-eighth), more than Watt’s 6.5 (T-13th). He switches sides fairly often, but if history repeats would line up most with Jones. DL Nnamdi Madubuike is having a good year, including five sacks (T-24th). The interior line will be challenged, and could see him showing Pittsburgh’s two rookies a thing or two, particularly McCormick.
Baltimore LB Roquan Smith has a team-leading 97 tackles (T-fifth). The reunion with new Steeler Patrick Queen, who’s on a roll, will be intense for bragging rights. CB Marlon Humphrey has ten passes defensed (T-fourth) and four INTs (T-third), while Steelers CBs Donte Jackson and Beanie Bishop Jr. tie for eighth with three. Watt leads the matchup with ten TFLs (T-seventh), and will need to have that impact in their stellar backfield.
Here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Pittsburgh’s defense has clearly been more balanced: 13th pass EPA, and even better fourth run EPA. Baltimore’s third in run defense though, but much worse pass defense (30th). Thankfully Wilson has been cooking, and can hopefully join that success that have the Ravens licking their wounds currently.
In this fierce rivalry, the physical running games will be prominent and key, with Baltimore being top three on both sides of the ball, while Pittsburgh is on defense. In comparison, the Steelers rushing offense is the weakest run-game element, but will hopefully buck that trend. That would be huge to fueling the offense, along with keeping it away from Baltimore’s potent one.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Ravens
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