The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) are coming off a tough AFC North loss to Cleveland and are set to face another divisional opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals (4-7). They are in a must-win situation, coming off their bye week and a two-game losing streak.
My recent AFC North Data Points point to defensive struggles, while their passing game and ability to score points on offense are the scariest propositions.
QUARTERBACKS – Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is playing very well overall. Leads the NFL with 408 attempts, one of three QBs with 3,000 pass yards (3,028), tied for first in TDs (27), but nine interceptions (T-31st, 40 qualifiers). Calling Pittsburgh’s defense, who tied for sixth in picks (11).
Steeler Russell Wilson has now played in five games, 4-1 as the starter. 149 attempts, 1,212 yards, seven TDs, and two INTs.
Here are passer ratings and average air yards to the sticks for the matchup:
While Wilson has played far fewer games, we can see both QBs have fared well in the stats among their peers. Burrow has a third-ranked 106.9 passer rating, and Wilson’s 98.6 comes in at tenth. Considering that factors completion rate, yards, TDs, and INTs, both being in the top ten points to a tough battle in the passing game.
Air yards to the sticks are also interesting in the matchup. Wilson ranks fifth at 0.2, one of only six quarterbacks with an average past the sticks. Burrow is close (-0.09), ranking eighth. Both quarterbacks are willing and able to push the ball downfield, leaning to Wilson’s favor and partially game circumstance for Burrow.
On paper, they are facing the tougher defense in Pittsburgh, so I’m hoping Wilson can shine brighter in the matchup against their weaker defense.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase is a beast.
Chase is the only WR in the NFL with over 1,000 receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns through Week 12, impressively. He has three more touchdowns than any other receiver, which is more than Steeler George Pickens has himself (two). Wow. This hasn’t been a lack of effort, with Wilson struggling to connect with Pickens and, in general, in the red zone. Big key.
Let’s gain some context as to how Chase’s success has occurred. Here are the percent of teams air yards and average yards after catch above expected:
Lots of things jump out, like Chase being the most comfortably above the mean in each. While his 30.8 TAY is respectable (18th, 88 qualifiers), a 2.7 YAC above expected ranks fourth. That is a scary proposition, with Pittsburgh CB Joey Porter Jr. likely to get the bulk of that matchup. He has had success in the past, so hopefully, that repeats itself in an up-and-down season for him in coverage. Team tackling will also be huge.
That isn’t limited to Chase and will be key for both teams. Three other players in the matchup are above the line in YAC above expected: Steeler Calvin Austin (2.4, seventh), Bengal Tee Higgins (1.8, 10th), and Pickens slightly (0.7, 32nd). The latter has the second-most air yards, 47.9 percent of teams, notably higher than Chase, and gives context to the different challenges they present.
As you’d expect, the rest are below average in team air yards. Higgins is as strong of a WR2 as you’ll find. He has 489 yards and four TDs. Andrei Iosivas is below average in both stats on the visual, with 274 yards. But he’s also put up four TDs, aiding Cincinnati’s third-best red zone offense (Steelers, 30th). Also means three Bengals WRs have at least doubled Pickens TDs. Let’s change that this week, men, or it could be a long and frustrating day.
RUNNING BACKS – Steeler Najee Harris leads the matchup with 191 attempts (fifth) and 749 yards (13th), but three TDs (T-27th) and 3.9 yards per attempt (36th, 47 qualifiers) will hopefully improve against Cincinnati’s defense who’s allowed 4.4 (T-15th).
Teams have committed eight men in the box, often against Harris. Here’s that stat, along with the average time to the line of scrimmage this season:
The Bengals’ lead back, Chase Brown, is the fourth-quickest and only above-average in the matchup time to the line. Pittsburgh better be ready for him at the point of attack. Part of his below-the-mean 19.3-percent eight men in the box is his receiving prowess in their potent pass game, with 42 targets (seventh) and two TDs. 140 rush attempts (T-21st), 607 yards (20th), 4.3 yards per attempt (22nd), and outlook-leading five TDs (T-16th) are scary.
Zach Moss was their RB2, placed on injured reserve. Earlier this month, they traded for Khalil Herbert, who did nice things with Chicago but has yet to get a carry in Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see his utilization, as Moss was getting 31.1 packed boxes (third-most) and ran mostly gap runs to Brown’s zone schemes. The latter makes his TLOS even more challenging.
Harris and Warren land below the mean in time to the line, what you’d expect from a primary zone scheme under OC Arthur Smith. Similar to Brown, Warren has seen below average 18.7 eight men in the box (28th). Has benefited with a healthier 4.0 yards per attempt (32nd) than Harris, on 75 attempts (37th), 303 yards (40th), and a TD. Winning the ground game, and time of possession are essential to hopeful victory.
TIGHT ENDS – Mike Gesicki is their leading receiver at the position, with 47 targets (17th), 72.3 catch rate (35th), 383 yards (16th), and two TDs (T-16th, 44 qualifiers). He presents a matchup problem in stature and athleticism, including 23.6 wide-out alignment (second), so how Pittsburgh’s second-level is employed, and fares will be interesting.
For context, Steeler Pat Freiermuth has just 38 targets (T-24th), 354 yards (20th), but better 92.1 catch rate (second) and three TDs (T-eighth). One of six TEs with a 20-plus wide-out rate (20.1).
A big difference in their utilization is the average depth of target, so let’s look at that, along with yards per reception, for more context:
We clearly see that Gesicki has been targeted deepest downfield, with a fourth-ranked 9.4 ADOT, well above the rest of the outlook and the mean. Freiermuth is next, but 5.5 ADOT is stale in comparison (T-32nd). Seeing him and Darnell Washington above the trendline (diagonal line) points to better YAC than Cincinnati, which hopefully remains true.
Targeting Freiermuth downfield more is something I’ve been clamoring for and have seen sprinkled in a bit lately. At least it’s not to the extreme of Bengal Erick All, who ties for the lowest 3.1 ADOT, and 7.9 yards per reception (second-least) though.
I hope Wilson can attack TEs downfield more. He missed at least one opportunity to Freiermuth last week, perhaps leading to a big game like he had against the Bengals last season.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Obviously, key to any matchup.
Here are PFF blocking grades:
What stands out right away is that no Bengal has an above-the-mean RBLK, facing a strong Steelers run defense. However, they do have a couple that lead the way in PBLK.
Bengals expected OL:
LT Orlando Brown Jr.: 50.4 RBLK (64th/67), 82.5 PBLK (12th).
LG Cordell Volson: 63.4 RBLK (34th/63), 50.1 PBLK (60th).
C Ted Karras: 49.3 RBLK (30th/32), 77.3 PBLK (3rd).
RG Alex Cappa: 55.0 RBLK (55th/63), 53.1 PBLK (56th).
RT Amarius Mims: 55.8 RBLK (54th/67), 58.5 PBLK (57th).
Karras is a top-three pass-blocking center, along with Brown, the only 80-plus PBLK in the matchup. Yes, the grades are not scripture, but they point to Brown’s questionable status (fibula, last appeared in Week Eight) being huge for them. Who Steelers star T.J. Watt would face in an injury-riddled room behind him would be advantageous as he looks to dominate following a quiet game against Cleveland last week.
That will surely be needed, with running mate Alex Highsmith likely to miss another game (ankle, doubtful). That is unfortunate, so the rest of the room will need to step up again, hopefully making things difficult for Burrow and company. It’s a seemingly tasty matchup for Pittsburgh’s defensive line, so Cam Heyward should stack another consistently strong game in his consistent 2024 that defies father time.
Pittsburgh OL:
LT Dan Moore: 63.0 RBLK (41st/67), 72.5 PBLK (34th).
LG Isaac Seumalo: 73.8 RBLK (17th/63), 54.5 PBLK (53rd).
C Zach Frazier: 81.2 RBLK (4th/32), 58.4 PBLK (23rd).
RG Mason McCormick: 52.3 RBLK (59th/63), 64.2 PBLK (33rd).
RT Broderick Jones: 59.9 RBLK (50th/67), 50.2 PBLK (63rd).
The best mark is impressively Frazier’s RBLK, fourth at the position as a rookie and tone-setter. Cincinnati has ruled out DT Sheldon Rankins (illness), so a man down and not the stoutest run defense to begin with. Pair that with Seumalo and McCormick, whose grade has been harsh, in my opinion, advantage Pittsburgh (on paper).
Moore is coming off a tough outing against Browns star Myles Garrett, and is set for another in Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson, the league-leader in sacks (11.5), and respectable run defender too. Hopefully, Moore can bounce back against this challenge, as he’s fared well overall in his best season to date.
The Bengals have a tough tandem, with Sam Hubbard on the other edge. Jones played better last week in an overall rough 2024, and though Hubbard hasn’t been as productive, it’s still a tough task. The unit must do a better cohesive job than last week, taking control of the running game and the tougher task of keeping Wilson clean. Specifically, it has to help Moore out better.
DEFENSE – Let’s start with broad-scope yardage stats:
Pass Yards: Steelers (13th). Bengals (19th).
Rush Yards: Steelers (4th). Bengals (19th).
Pittsburgh has been stronger in each, particularly in run defense, which came up through the article. Cincinnati is 19th in each, below average, but not the worst either. What about situationally?
Third down: Pittsburgh (fourth). Cincinnati (27th).
Red zone: Steelers (12th). Bengals (31st).
This is where Cincinnati’s weaknesses rear their head most. Pittsburgh’s offense has been respectable on third downs, but the bugaboo has unfortunately been red zone (30th). Steelers O – Bengals D in the red zone is a big key to whoever comes out on top.
To close, here’s a visual of defenses pass and run EPA (measures overall scoring impact):
Pass Defense EPA: Steelers (ninth). Bengals (25th).
Run Defense EPA: Steelers (ninth). Bengals (29th).
Another edge on paper goes to Pittsburgh, which is a top-ten unit in each. Cincinnati is well below average in each, a bottom-eight unit, particularly in run defense. This is encouraging to see, considering the impact of EPA on the scoreboard on any given Sunday, though, particularly in AFC North play.
Such a tough loss for Pittsburgh against the Browns last week, who were 2-8, has them hungry against a better Bengals team than their record (4-7) and clawing for any hope of the postseason. If Pittsburgh’s offense can step it up, particularly overcoming their troubles on fourth down if that arises, along with the red zone on offense and defense as of late.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Bengals
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
