If it feels like Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell is putting the ball through the uprights at a historic pace this season, you’d be right. Through six games, Boswell has been a busy man. An effective one, too. He’s made 16-of-17 field goals, only missing from 62 yards on an end-of-half field goal attempt in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Extrapolating that out over a 17-game season, Boswell is on pace to make 45 field goals in 2024. If he were to finish with that figure, it would be an NFL record.
Only three kickers have even made at least 40 field goals in one season. The Arizona Cardinals’ Neil Rackers was the first in 2005, finishing with 41. The Las Vegas Raiders’ Daniel Carlson matched that number in 2021, his final one sending himself and the Steelers to the playoffs.
The record for field goals in a season is held by David Akers, who made 44 of them in 2011 with the San Francisco 49ers. Incredibly, he attempted 52 that season, the only kicker to ever try at least 50 in one season.
Now, aided by a 17th regular-season game, Boswell has a chance to pass him. He has volume and opportunity matching talent. Hitting this many field goals generally means you have to be an accurate kicker without many misses. Not only to save your job but there isn’t much margin for error when attempting to break a record. You also have to be on a team with an offense good enough to move the ball but not good enough to put that ball into the end zone. Enter the Pittsburgh Steelers, the very definition of that.
Boswell has made at least one field goal in every game this season, multiple in four of them, and at least four in two. He opened the season going 6-for-6, responsible for all 18 points in a win over the Atlanta Falcons and made all four tries Sunday in the Steelers’ win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
His best single-season mark is hitting 36 field goals in 2021. That year, he made 11 through the first six weeks, five fewer than he has right now. He’s on pace to at least set a personal best and if this trend continues, he’ll challenge the all-time mark.
What could prevent him? Regression to the mean. This sort of strong start is relatively common for kickers. To date, 42 kickers have made at least 16 field goals in their team’s first six games of the season. The first was decades ago in 1964, a day when kickers weren’t the borderline robots they are today. The Boston Patriots’ Gino Cappelletti made 16 through his first six games of a season but would end the year with a total of 25. In 2023, six kickers were on Boswell’s current pace. Only one finished with more than 35. There are ebbs and flows to a season and this kind of pace is difficult to sustain.
Weather plays an obvious factor. In September and October, cold and wind and snow aren’t factors and kickers’ lives are easier. That 49-yarder from the left hash is a breeze when it’s 70 and sunny. Different ballgame when it’s 27 degrees and there’s an icy wind in your face. Fatigue also plays a factor as fresh-legged kickers feel the impact of a season like any other player by year’s end. Technique becomes harder to maintain, increasing the chance to miss.
Still, there’s reason to believe Boswell can be an exception. For starters, this is a personal best for him. He’s never made 16 through the Steelers’ first six games. In fact, he’s the first to do so in franchise history. Boz has two more games in October with a Week 9 bye. Let’s assume he makes five more field goals across those two, hurting his pace ever so slightly for the season but a realistic target to achieve. That would give him 21 through eight games, a pace that would match Akers’ when he set the record.
Despite November and December’s weather challenges, those are the months when Boswell is his most active. Reverse hibernation, you could say. Here are his monthly splits of how many field goals he makes per game throughout his career.
Boswell Average Field Goals, By Month
September: 1.67
October: 1.78
November: 1.90
December: 1.70
January: 2.14
November and January have been his highest months while even December beats out September. Perhaps that’s because like kickers, offenses can be more challenged in the cold and snow. Harder to throw the ball, harder to run after the catch, and teams settle for more field goals.
Boswell doesn’t lose accuracy in colder months. Here are his field goal percentage splits in the first two months compared to the final three.
Boswell Field Goal %, Warm vs. Cold Months
Sept-Oct: 87.5 percent
Nov-Jan: 87.7 percent
His accuracy is essentially the same. There’s no reason to believe he’ll be greatly impacted by whatever the Pittsburgh winter throws his way.
Granted, Boswell’s current monthly paces won’t be good enough to break the record. If he averages 1.9 field goals in November and 1.7 in December, he’s not going to get there. He’ll have to overperform his numbers. But he already has through the first six weeks – who’s to say he can’t the remainder of the year? It might require another six-field goal day, but Boswell already holds the NFL record for most such games in a career (including playoffs) with three. Why not make it four?
There is one other element of this story to note. Boswelll might break Akers’ record, but he might not be the only one. Boswell isn’t the current NFL leader in field goals. The Dallas Cowboys’ Brandon Aubrey has made one more this season, 17 through his first six games, including a 55-yarder he made look easy at Acrisure Stadium in Week 5. That puts him on pace for 48 this season. But Aubrey also was on pace last season, making 16 through his first six games of 2023, and fell off by year’s end to finish with 36.
Odds say Boswell will do the same. But the Steelers’ ok, far-from-great offense and his own talent along with his November and December track records suggest he’s got a shot to challenge Akers’ record.
