The 2024 regular season is finally here. Pittsburgh kicks things off against the Atlanta Falcons, an anticipated opener with storylines, like new Steelers OC Arthur Smith being their former head coach. Changes to both squads will be interesting to see in games that matter for the first time, including the quarterback position.
- Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins will make his Falcons debut. He is coming off an Achilles injury suffered mid-2023 with the Vikings, and did not appear this preseason. It will be interesting to see how he looks in his return.
Let’s look back to the 2023 season, with quarterbacks completion percentages and air yard differentials (completed – intended air yards):
Here we see some strengths Cousins displayed last season with Minnesota. His 69.5 COMP ranked third-best out of 45 qualifying quarterbacks (min. 135 attempts), along with a -1.1 AYD that landed even better at second.
The latter points to less difference in his passes whether they were caught or not, and suggests lower air yardage overall. That was indeed the case, seventh-least average air distance. It was short and efficient, and with important context to such a strong COMP. The question is if that will look similar in Atlanta.
Russell Wilson was named the starter as expected. He was eased along this preseason after his minor calf injury, with just 12 attempts. The tightness unfortunately reared its head this week, leaving Wilson questionable for the opener. Wilson was also above average in COMP (66.4) that ranked 14th, and quite a difference in AYD (-2.9, eighth-most).
So, he had more air yardage on average, ranking 29th to Cousins 39th. While Wilson had the reputation of dink and dunking in Denver with Sean Payton’s system, we see that was even truer for Cousins.
HC Mike Tomlin stated the Falcons ‘better be ready for a Justin Fields package’. Well, that may be a start instead barring Wilson’s availability. Fields had the lowest 61.4 COMP of the three, ranking 38th out of 45, and a -2.7 AYD that was more comparable to Wilson.
The difference was average air distance, where Fields ranked sixth-most in the NFL. This does add context to his lowest COMP. Pushing the ball downfield more in 2024 is music to the ears of Steelers fans, who’ve endured stale passing schemes for a while. Sure hope that occurs out of the gates Sunday.
- Atlanta also didn’t play their key contributors in the preseason, as they did at many positions. Lead-back Bijan Robinson is set for his second season, paired with Tyler Allgeier as a nice one two punch.
Here are RBs efficiency (EFF=distance traveled per rush yards, measures north/south runners) and average time to the line of scrimmage (TLOS):
Pittsburgh’s rushers had quicker TLOS and EFF numbers on average, compared to Atlanta last season. This is very interesting considering Smith as the Falcons head coach, using wide-zone often in his run schemes, hence taking a bit longer to get vertical. Seeing how this looks for both teams should be fun to watch.
Here are the 2023 numbers and ranks for focused players (out of 49 qualifiers):
Harris – 3.84 EFF (27th), 2.78 TLOS (27th).
Warren – 3.63 EFF (13th), 2.87 TLOS (35th).
Robinson – 4.37 EFF (41st), 2.99 TLOS (46th).
Allgeier – 4.60 EFF (46th), 2.97 TLOS (45th).
Noticeable difference, with Warren providing the best yardage results (5.3 YPA, third among qualifiers). Next was Robinson (4.6, T-ninth), followed by Harris (4.1, T-24th) and Allgeier (3.7, 39th). Can’t wait to see the running games on display.
Along with the RBs returning, but not playing all preseason, the same can be said for Atlanta’s offensive line. So, I will once again provide some data on the group in 2023.
While this was last season, a few things jump out. Atlanta largely had the better marks of the two teams, with particularly strong run blocking, re-emphasizing the hopes that Smith recreates those results with Pittsburgh.
Falcons C Drew Dalman led the focused players with a 90.0 RBLK, third-best at his position in 2023. Chris Lindstrom also had a great 87.5 RBLK, ranking third among NFL guards, along with a ninth-ranked 78.6 PBLK for the best-balanced grades.
Their interior o-line could be the biggest challenge. Here’s to hoping captain Cam Heyward (congrats on the extension) and the DL can continue some encouraging play we saw in the preseason.
Here’s the rest of their projected starters:
RT Kaleb McGary: 76.5 RBLK, 69.5 PBLK. This will be Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt’s primary matchup, and seems to be a favorable one. Particularly looking for a dominant pass rush showing.
LT Jake Matthews: 60.2 RBLK, 80.1 PBLK. Pittsburgh EDGE Alex Highsmith might be quieter getting to the QB, but run defense could stand out most positively in this game.
G Matthew Bergeron: 59.6 RBLK, 57.1 PBLK. This could be a spot that the Steelers look to challenge, and see the IDL hopefully make their presence known.
Four of five starters returned for Pittsburgh this season, and here’s their 2023 grades, along with matchup takeaways:
LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.9 RBLK, 65.5 PBLK. Unfortunately suffered a pec injury, ruled out for the Falcons game by HC Mike Tomlin. Spencer Anderson preps for what will be his first NFL start, after playing only one regular season snap to date. Huge key.
RG James Daniels: 60.0 RBLK, 60.4 PBLK. Not awe inspiring to say the least. Graded well this preseason as a pass blocker (85.3), but a 42.7 RBLK will be interesting to monitor as things get underway.
T Broderick Jones: 62.9 RBLK, 52.1 PBLK. Had clear struggles this preseason, particularly in Game Two allowing three pressures and two sacks. Minor injuries including an arm brace may be limiting, but really need a positive 2024 from him.
LT Dan Moore Jr.: 57.8 RBLK, 39.7 PBLK. Lowest of the group in each last year. Particularly PBLK, allowing the second-most pressures (55) in the league. He looked good this preseason, including an 87.1 PBLK (fourth among all tackles). Regular season is a different animal, but hopefully we see a positive carry over.
Then we have the newcomers. Rookie Zach Frazier will start at center, who had the best 69.8 offensive grade on Pittsburgh’s o-line this preseason. Namely a strong 82.3 PBLK that included no pressures or sacks, along with a 65.1 RBLK. They have quality d-linemen, so a nice test to hopefully pass right away.
Then there’s fellow rookie, T Troy Fautanu. After appearing in the season opener (66.3 RBLK, 53.9 PBLK), he’s unfortunately dealing with a knee, but took live reps for first time since injury this week. Two full practices preceding the game, but seems wise not to rush it, and with the time he’s missed.
- WR. For Atlanta, Drake London is top dog on the depth chart. He was their most targeted wide receiver by far last season, with 106. Next highest was Van Jefferson (42), who came over to Pittsburgh with Smith. That could be a similar split with George Pickens and Jefferson under Smith, if things continue to develop similar to the offseason.
Here are 2023 WRs average separation (SEP= distance in yards measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion) and yards after catch (YAC):
These elements weren’t great for London last year, with a 2.2 SEP and 3.0 YAC, ranking sixth and 14th least among the 86 qualifying wide receivers. YAC is something we saw Pickens make huge strides in (6.6, seventh-best) despite a similar 2.3 SEP (seventh-least). Seeing both players in their second season really accentuates Pickens progression in comparison to London and his peers.
Pickens was the only current Steeler to qualify, with Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and Scotty Miller having fewer than 45 targets, and Roman Wilson (out-ankle) being a rookie. There’s a lot of new, and hefty number of targets to account for after the departure of Diontae Johnson this offseason.
Then we have Darnell Mooney, who Atlanta brought over from Chicago. He had 31 catches on 61 targets (50.8 COMP, sixth-worst) despite landing above the mean in both data points. Mooney had a 6.2 YAC (11th) and 3.1 SEP (24th), pointing to a nice ability of getting open and creating yardage.
Pickens more than doubled Mooney’s catches with 63, making the former’s leap all the more impressive. There’s another tie here, with Fields being the former QB with the Bears. It will be interesting to see if the Cousins to Mooney connection is stronger. Also, rookie Casey Washington was targeted often this preseason, along with former Steeler Ray-Ray McCloud, and KhaDarel Hodge in the fold.
- TE. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts was a No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 draft. After a 1,026 yard rookie campaign, things haven’t gone swimmingly. QB play wasn’t ideal, with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder the primary passers the last two seasons. Their investment at quarterback is obviously in hopes of better results, including Pitts.
Here are TEs SEP and average intended air yards:
Right away, Pitts’ 11.4 IAY comfortably led the 29 qualifiers. Part of that is the Smith factor (utilizes TEs heavily), which hopefully applies to Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth and the position in 2024.
We clearly see that was lacking on Freiermuth’s targets in comparison, with a 6.8 IAY that ranked 15th (slightly below the mean). Had the better 2.9 SEP result, but that was sixth-worst in 2023. Here’s to hoping the big season needed from Freiermuth, and moving forward with a fresh contract extension, includes more of each.
The flipside for Pitts was lacking separation (2.4, second-worst), which surely impacted his absolute worst 58.9 catch rate of the group. Will be enthralling to see Pittsburgh’s defense matchup against Pitts and the Falcons pass game.
Defense. Once again, many Falcons didn’t play this preseason. Some notable names include DL Grady Jarrett, Kentavius Street (trade, mid-2023), last but not least EDGE Matthew Judon (former Patriot).
New faces other than Jarrett, and will certainly be a challenge for Pittsburgh on Sunday. The secondary is also strong, including CB A.J. Terrell, and a new safety duo that looks stout in Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons (former Bronco).
On paper, the new look Steelers offense will seemingly be tested in both the run and pass game. Knock-on-wood they’re up for the task, with no time to waste getting in the win column amidst a tough 2024 schedule at hand. Things look bright for Pittsburgh’s defense, and their potential of dominance will hopefully fuel a W in the season opener.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Falcons
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
