Are you tired of hurrying up and waiting for finality when it comes to San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk? I know we are. It’s been a long week and at the time of this post, there’s no indication that we will get finality on Aiyuk on Thursday. That obviously could change in a hurry. While we await an outcome with Aiyuk, I thought I would write about what I think his contract with the Steelers might ultimately look like should Pittsburgh indeed end up trading for him.
For starters, it’s hard to imagine Aiyuk settling for a new money average of less than $28 million. That, in my opinion, would be his floor, and it would tie him for sixth-highest in the NFL with Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams, according to Over the Cap. As for what the max the Steelers might give Aiyuk when it comes to a new money average, my guess is that amount would be $29 million. Such a new money average would rank Aiyuk fifth in the NFL, one spot ahead of Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle.
I would also assume that Aiyuk’s new deal with the Steelers would be for five years, 2024-2028. That makes the most sense for a contract this big. It also would allow the Steelers to stretch out his signing bonus for cap purposes for the full number of years (five) allowed in the CBA. That signing bonus, by the way, would likely be somewhere around $28 million, give or take.
A new money average of $29 million would make Aiyuk the Steelers’ highest-paid player. A new money average of $28 million, on the other hand, would put him just behind Steelers OLB T.J. Watt. It would be a monumental shift by the Steelers if they brought an outsider in and made him their highest-paid player.
Another big question when it comes to a new contract in Pittsburgh for Aiyuk is the fully guaranteed money, and specifically, if he has any of it past 2024. The Steelers usually only do full guarantees beyond the first year with franchise quarterbacks and their own players who reset the market at their positions as was the case with Watt and S Minkah Fitzpatrick both fairly recently. That was the only way they were going to get those deals done, however, so it might wind up being the same case with Aiyuk.
Should Aiyuk indeed wind up with full guarantees from the Steelers beyond the first year, I would imagine all of his 2025 would get fully guaranteed as well. Once again, this would be a huge story for Steelers fans because, in essence, it would be breaking another precedent. The NFL is changing, however, and the Steelers should start adjusting if they want to be in the running for expensive and talented players moving into the future.
So, what does this all look like in a nutshell when it comes to a possible new contract for Aiyuk? Let me recap it.
I would expect Aiyuk’s new money average to come in at around $28-29 million. That would mean the four new years of the deal would total between $112 million and $116 million. They might have to fully guarantee the first two full years (2024 and 2025), and the contract might have to have strong cash flow through them. The 2024 cap charge for Aiyuk would likely land between $8 million and $10 million, depending on the overall structure. As for the total value of the five-year deal for Aiyuk, it would likely come in between $126.124 million and $130.124 million.
Aiyuk’s cap charges for the final four years, 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028, would likely be right around $29-31 million. Should the Steelers indeed wind up trading for Aiyuk and signing him to such a deal — or one very similar to it — I would expect the team to restructure his contract next offseason, possibly as early as March, in an attempt to considerably lower his 2025 salary cap charge.
Well, those are my thoughts on a possible Aiyuk contract so now we all can get back to waiting to see if the Steelers ultimately trade for him. If that happens, I promise to fully break down Aiyuk’s new deal after the details of it surface. I likely will break down his new deal even if he doesn’t land in Pittsburgh.
