Continuing the series learning about the new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, I wanted to dive deeper into an important aspect of successful offenses – third and longs (>= seven yards).
Of course, the main objective is to avoid this undesirable situation on the money down, but today’s goal is to see how the new QB room fared in the situation along with former Steeler Kenny Pickett for comparison.
Looking at third and long QB drop backs (pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles), here are conversion rates and expected points added (EPA = performance compared to expectation) for players with at least 250 total drop backs:
Right away, we see Fields had the best balance of both data points, landing above the mean in each. His 29.3 third and long success rate ranked impressively at tenth, well above average among the 33 qualifying quarterbacks at sustaining drives in less-than-ideal circumstances on third down. Very refreshing to learn.
Fields’ EPA was also respectably ranked at 13th, but was a negative number (-0.035). This emphasizes that QBs generally had less positive plays in the poor situation with only 11 quarterbacks having a positive EPA stat. Fields being close to that group is also encouraging overall.
This came on 82 third and long drop backs though, tying for 23rd, with lower attempts obviously the preference. So, while Fields’ quality was quite respectable compared to his peers, limiting the quantity with more successful early down results will hopefully trend positively in future opportunities in Pittsburgh.
Let’s compare this to Pickett: 67 third and long drop backs (10th), 25.4 conversion rate (21st), -0.004 EPA (12th).
Pickett’s drop backs get an asterisk considering eh appeared in just 12 games, but are a fair comparison to Fields, who played in 13. This emphasizes the Bears offense getting in poor third down situations even more than Pittsburgh in 2023. Hopefully the latter is the case for Fields in the Black and Gold if he receives ample playing time.
We also see Pickett’s conversion rate was stale in comparison, but EPA was very comparable between the two QBs.
The most unfortunate part of the study is Wilson’s results, below average in both data points on third and longs. His 23.7 third and long conversion rate ranked 25th, along with a -0.200 EPA that landed 24th. Each landed in the bottom ten of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks. So, Wilson’s recent resume on third and longs were noticeably the worst quality of the three QBs in our sights.
There were some clashes in Denver with Wilson and coach Sean Payton’s offense struggling to mesh, leading to a late season benching after 15 games played. In that span, Wilson had 76 third and long attempts (T-16th), so while the quality in the situation was worst, Wilson facing the situation less that Fields on more total drop backs, encouragingly.
The hope for both new QBs is with a change of scenery, and all the investments Pittsburgh made on offense will lead to a much more efficient offense in 2024, that will hopefully include strong third and long results.
