With such a radical change of the NFL’s kickoff rules, there’s no consensus on what the results will be throughout 2024. Some believe the touchback rate will decrease but not drastically so. Others, like Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton, think it’ll become one of the most exciting plays in football.
As shared by The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider, Payton believes the change will produce “significant” results.
“You’re going to see double-digit touchdowns,” Payton said via Kosmider.
Presumably, Payton is referring to leaguewide scores and not per team, something that has never happened in NFL history. The single-season record is four, set by the Houston Texans in 2007, and though these changes are huge, they shouldn’t more than double the record.
During the league meetings in March, the NFL adopted the XFL model in an attempt to make the play safer and more exciting. Now, the return and coverage teams will stand just five yards apart, neither side able to move until one of the two returners in the “landing zone” fields the ball.
Some coaches are treating it as a running play and each team figures to have its own approach to the new rule. Perhaps offensive linemen will be used as blockers. Running backs could gain value as return men. Regardless, Payton thinks the number of scores will skyrocket.
In 2023, there were only four by three teams. The Houston Texans had two while the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots each had one. It’s a number that’s shrunk over the years, not hitting double digits since the 2012 season.
NFL Kick Return Touchdowns This Century
2023: 4
2022: 6
2021: 9
2010: 23
2000: 15
In the 1980s and ’90s, kick-return touchdowns weren’t as prevalent with numbers similar to the past few seasons. They picked up around the turn of the century before peaking around the 2010s. Since then, returns – and touchdowns – have declined before bottoming out in 2023. Now, the fair-catch touchback rule is gone, and the formation radically altered.
Will Payton’s prediction come true? Probably. If there were nine kick-return touchdowns in 2021, there can probably be double digits under these new rules. But there could be one misconception. One popular narrative is the idea that a return man will have daylight if he can break through the “wall” of coverage players. While that could be true in moments, special teams coaches probably won’t be foolish enough to send all 10 of their coverage players moving on the same plane in a straight horizontal line. Like the old formation, the furthest-most outside players, L1 and R1, will probably hold back and contain the return as they did under the previous scheme.
Still, the Steelers are probably rooting for Payton to be accurate. They signed Cordarrelle Patterson, the NFL’s all-time leader in kick-return scores with nine. He has a kick-return score in seven of his 11 seasons, the latest coming in 2022. Pittsburgh will still need to find someone opposite him and there’s still the risk of teams simply kicking away from Patterson, but the Steelers are planning on for an active year in the return game.
