The excitement and expectations are high entering the 2024 season for the Pittsburgh Steelers, especially at the quarterback position.
After struggling through a season with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph in 2023, the Steelers overhauled their quarterback room this offseason, bringing in Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kyle Allen and undrafted free agent John Rhys Plumlee.
Despite the boost the Steelers have, at least on paper, at the quarterback position along with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, ESPN’s Mike Clay doesn’t see Wilson or Fields being the answer for the Steelers in 2024.
Projecting stats and game results for ESPN.com, Clay took a shot at the Steelers’ projections for the upcoming 2024 season. In his projections, the numbers weren’t kind for Wilson or Fields. So, I wanted to take a closer look and flesh out those projections to determine if the players will go over or under their projections in 2024.
Let’s take a look.
Russell Wilson — 2024 projection from ESPN: 264-for-415 (63.6%), 2,913 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs, 58 carries, 267 yards, 2 TDs
As I said, those projections for Wilson aren’t pretty. It’s not just for Wilson, either. Clay’s projections for the passing game in Pittsburgh — and the offense as a whole — are a bit ugly, even with Smith now overseeing the offense. It’s important to remember they are just projections.
Still, that’s a bit concerning. Wilson is coming off a season in Denver in which he threw for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions with almost no run game to speak of behind him. In Pittsburgh, he should have a very strong run game to lean on, which will open up the play-action passing game, giving Wilson more time and space to try and dice up defenses.
The one thing working against him currently is the lack of depth and talent in the receiver room outside of George Pickens and rookie Roman Wilson. It’s a far cry from the talent he had to work with in Denver over the last few years with names like Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims and more.
But even with questions about the depth and talent in the wide receiver room for the Steelers right now, those projections seem very low. Wilson wasn’t in a great situation in 2022 or 2023 and still surpassed those numbers, so it seems rather strange that he’d come to a better situation in Pittsburgh and regress, but that’s what Clay’s numbers lay out.
If Wilson throws for just 2,900 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions, the entire season will have likely gone off the rails. That doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen, and Wilson will be a steady presence that the offense has needed under center the last few seasons.
My Verdict: Over
Justin Fields— 2024 projection from ESPN: 75-for-120 (62.5%), 835 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 39 carries, 223 yards, 1 TD
While there is plenty of excitement for Wilson as the starter in Pittsburgh, there is even more excitement and anticipation for Fields, whom the Steelers acquired for a conditional sixth rounder in the 2025 NFL Draft in a trade from the Chicago Bears.
The No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has flashed quite a bit as a passer and especially as a runner in the NFL, showing off his dual-threat abilities. But he hasn’t been able to put it all together consistently, which had the Bears moving on to select Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
So, Fields heads to Pittsburgh where he gets a chance to reset under head coach Mike Tomlin and learn from a veteran quarterback he models himself after in Wilson.
For now, Fields appears to be the backup, but if he is able to win the job, the projections from Clay’s model will be far, far under. Based on everything that’s been said so far this offseason regarding Fields and Wilson, it seems like Wilson will be the guy all season unless of injury or very poor play.
So, while the Steelers will absolutely need to have some special packages for Fields to get on the field and utilize his skill set, the passing projections seem a bit high, and the rushing projections seem a bit low. I don’t see Fields getting enough consistent playing time to surpass the overall numbers —at least right now.
My Verdict: Under
