If there has been one surefire bet in the NFL the last two decades, it’s that Mike Tomlin does not have losing seasons. In Tomlin’s 17 years as the Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, he’s never finished the regular season with a losing record, at least reaching the eight- or nine-win threshold no matter the injuries, talent issues, or level of competition in any given season.
The Steelers won 10 games last season, despite abysmal quarterback play for most of the year and a midseason firing of their offensive coordinator. Yet after a few splash acquisitions this offseason – chiefly Patrick Queen, Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields – the Steelers’ win total has been set at just 7.5 by DraftKings.
Adam Caplan, an NFL insider for Pro Football Network, joined the “Ferrall Coast to Coast” podcast with Scott Ferrall on Monday, urging fans to bet on the Steelers’ win total going over.
“Tomlin’s never had a losing record,” Caplan said. “They’ve significantly upgraded the quarterback room. That right there is going to be worth nine wins.”
It’s hard to imagine the Steelers falling short of the 7.5-win total in 2024. They managed 10 wins while averaging 17.8 points per game (28th in the NFL) in what was the best division in football last season. Bringing in Wilson and Fields doesn’t necessarily place the Steelers in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders, as far as we know, but the quarterback room — which has been the Steelers’ most significant area of concern the past few seasons – undoubtedly improved this offseason.
The AFC is as strong as it’s been at any point in the last decade, but injuries will happen, teams will falter, and one thing will stay consistent: Tomlin will find ways to win games.
“If you like these over totals get them early before the team rises,” Caplan said. “There’s going to be some hype on Russell Wilson, they’re going to continue to improve the offensive line. I know they have to address the receiver position. They do have [George] Pickens, who’s a stud. They know they’re going to have to do that, that’s the number one need on the football team. They’re going to get all those pass rushers back healthy. They’re going to be better than they were last year, number one reason why: they’re better at the quarterback position.”
He breezed through several significant reasons without providing too much detail, but his simplified explanation pretty much hits the nail on the head. The offensive line improved throughout last season, and it will look a bit different this year. But once the team fills holes at center and right tackle, the line should get back to doing what it did so well in the second half of last season, spearheading one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL.
Caplan notes that the wide receiver position is an issue that needs to be addressed, but the Steelers’ track record of drafting instant-impact wide receivers should inspire confidence. Yet more than anything else, Wilson is a proven winner with experience and poise that Kenny Pickett lacked. Even if Fields becomes the starter, it’s already clear early in his career that he’s more athletically capable than any quarterback in the Steelers’ locker room the past few years. The quarterback spot has improved, and the Steelers’ record should reflect that.
I won’t advise anyone to gamble, but if I had to bank on one thing in football, it would be Mike Tomlin’s Steelers winning more than 7.5 games next season.
