An unfortunate theme of the last two seasons has been slow starts in the running game for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Today’s goal is to look at some numbers and see if there are any takeaways for future improvements.
First, here’s how teams fared in the entirety of the 2022 (x-axis) and 2023 (y-axis) seasons in success via nflfastR (success = expected points added > 0):
Here we see Pittsburgh was above league mean each season, among several solid teams. Particularly in 2022, with 46.0 percent success (fourth-best), compared to 41 percent last season (11th). In totality, the Steelers had 2,075 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, and 16 touchdowns in 2022. Last year, 2,010 yards, 4.3 YPC, and 16 touchdowns. Overall similar numbers, but consistency throughout each season was a different story.
Here’s a weekly view of the two seasons. Starting with 2022:
Here, we get visual context to the up-and-down nature of the Steelers’ running game. RB Jaylen Warren had 379 rush yards on 77 attempts (4.9 YPC) and one touchdown in 2022, but the game-by-game results have roller coaster vibes. Week 3 sported a perfect success rate on four attempts, 30 yards (7.5 YPC, second-best).
That was the highlight of the first half of the year in these terms, followed by three consecutive performances of 50 percent, all from Warren (Weeks 6-9). Two attempts (two yards), two attempts (seven yards), and the most notable in Week 8 (six attempts, 50 yards, 8.3 YPC). We’re reminded of Warren’s lesser opportunities in 2022, an important context to the better success results he provided in the first half of the year.
RB Najee Harris was the workhorse, with 1,034 rush yards on 272 attempts (3.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns in 2022. His success results are very telling, though, below 50 percent in every game before the bye (Week 9). Weeks 5-8 were his worst success rates, below 30 percent, in which the team had a 1-3 record. Two 40-plus performances, Week 2 (15 attempts, 49 yards, 3.3 YPC) and Week 4 (18 carries, 74 yards, 4.1 YPC). The latter was his best game of the stretch in these terms, which says a lot.
What also stands out painfully for Harris in 2022 are his touchdown splits, with only one in the first half of 2022, compared to six after the bye week.
While Week 10 to the finale still had ups and downs, the results were less volatile. Harris eclipsed his prior season high in rushing yards six times in the second half of 2022, and the alignment with scoring a night and day difference in the pre/post-bye products.
We also see both backs had more similar trends in success from Week 12 on. Week 13 culminated with strong results, with Harris’ 86 yards on 17 attempts (5.1 YPC) and Warren adding a successful five-yard carry. Both backs were each above 50-percent success on one other occasion, Week 17: Harris – 22 attempts, 111 yards, 5.0 YPC. Warren – 12 attempts, 76 yards, 6.3 YPC). This was Harris’ only 100-yard game and most yardage for Warren in the campaign, highlighting the stronger performances to end the year.
Now let’s see how 2023 compared:
With more opportunities, a lack of top numbers on the chart for Warren. More above-the-line results than 2022 overall, though, all coming post-bye (Week 6). Harris did have a 50-percent success rate in the opener, but on his fewest attempts all season (six), for 31 yards and 5.2 YPC (best of 2023) in the blowout loss. Warren had a similar outing in Week 4, with eight attempts, 29 yards, and 3.6 YPC. So, the highest-success games pre-bye weren’t earth-shattering, to say the least.
Week 7 featured a 57.1-success rate from Harris, his best mark of 2023 (14 attempts, 53 yards, 3.8 YPC, and a touchdown, along with a 50-percent success rate from Warren: six attempts, 32 yards, 5.3 YPC, and one touchdown. Week 8 stands out, with Harris shutdown to just 13 yards on seven attempts (1.9 YPC) and a 0.0 success rate. Week 9 is when the run game began to gain footing, and we see Warren spearheaded those efforts.
Warren had a 50-plus success rate from Weeks 9-11. Week Nine: 11 attempts, 88 yards (8.0 YPC); Week 10: 15 attempts, 101 yards (6.7 YPC), and a touchdown. Week 11: nine attempts, 129 yards, a whopping 14.3 YPC, and a triple explosive 74-yard touchdown. 2-and-1 record in these games, with the loss coming in the latter, a 13-10 divisional loss to Cleveland where the rest of the offense struggled mightily.
Harris jumped above the line in Week 12 (53.3 percent) with 15 attempts, 99 yards (6.6 YPC), and a touchdown. Warren followed that up with a nine-attempt, 59-yard (6.6 YPC) Week 13, which began the horrid three-game losing streak in 2023. We see the running game was a culprit within that span. In Week 14, Harris had 12 carries for 29 yards (2.4 YPC) while Warren had seven attempts for just 11 yards (1.6 YPC). Week 15 wasn’t great: Harris – 12 attempts, 33 yards (2.8 YPC), Warren – 10 attempts, 40 yards (4.0 YPC).
A big takeaway from Weeks 14 and 15 was both backs being below 30 percent in success rates in those gut-wrenching losses.
Then, on the three-game winning streak, Harris was the more successful back to close the year. 52.6, 51.9, and 53.8 success rates in the final three contests, which aided a more fluid offense as well. Week 16: Harris – 19 attempts, 78 yards (4.1 YPC), and a touchdown. Week 17: Harris – 27 attempts, 122 yards (4.5 YPC), and two touchdowns. Week 18: Harris – 26 attempts, 112 yards (4.3 YPC), and a touchdown.
All eight of Harris’ touchdowns came post-bye, half of them in the last three games. His top five yardages came in the second half of the year, including his two 100-yard outings in the final two games. While Warren’s opportunities grew, it was Harris still garnering the bulk of the opportunities. This was an encouraging truth to close the season, with 20-plus attempts from Harris in the final two contests (27, 26), and tied for his third most attempts in Week 15 (19) while maintaining a 50-plus success rate.
The entire offense deserves props, starting with the offensive line encouragingly trending in the right direction as the season wore on, allowing Pittsburgh to lean into its desired identity on offense.
Here’s a table of the stats for the Steelers’ running game discussed today, and highlighted in green are games the running back had a touchdown and/or a 50-percent success rate:
Harris’ 2022 season stands out from Week 11 on and considering him taking on most of the opportunities re-emphasizes the overall point: slow starts to strong success by year’s end, a tale of two seasons. While Warren had several games highlighted in green pre-bye week, the low volume is a very important context in how poor the running game felt in totality in the first half of 2022. We also see three games that season with both backs highlighted, each resulting in victories in the back half of the year.
We saw a bit more green for Harris early in 2023, so a slight improvement, but the lone qualifier pre-bye came on six attempts in the season-opening blowout loss. Then we encouragingly see three games with both backs highlighted (Weeks 7, 9, and 10), each resulting in wins. Harris’ last six games are also telling, the Week 13-15 losing streak and closing out the year with three wins heavily aligning with his success or lack thereof. Week 17 was another outing with both backs highlighted, also a victory.
So, what needs to happen in the Steelers’ running game to get more consistent results right out of the gate in 2024?
The obvious is it all starts in the trenches. A high investment at center via free agency or the draft moves atop the offense needs list with the recent release of Mason Cole. That, along with a hopeful upgrade at tackle, could do wonders. The addition and past rushing success of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will hopefully aid this goal as well.
Another takeaway from the last table is Warren’s opportunities increasing in the Steelers’ running game as each season progressed. With Harris’ slower starts the past two seasons, and Warren’s role in the committee approach more solidified, here’s hoping he’s around 10 attempts (or more) out of the gates in 2024. While it’s a high bar, when Harris and Warren each had a 50-plus success rate, and/or a touchdown, Pittsburgh has a 7-0 record the last two seasons.
Here’s to hoping the two-headed monster in the Steelers’ backfield is utilized and successful in these terms right out of the gates in 2024 and that the additions of Smith and offensive linemen will align for an excellent Steelers rushing attack.
