I’m not the first and probably won’t be the last to suggest the idea. In fact, I’ve alluded to it before. The Pittsburgh Steelers have plenty of needs and not enough draft capital to fix them all. Based on current construction, they’re going to come up short filling their needs at one position even if the board breaks as well for them this year as it did last year.
One way to fill that, outside of looking at free agency, is by trading down. As we always say, that sounds and looks good on paper but until you’re in them moment, weighing the board and offers, it’s impossible to say if it’s the right move. But as we floated the idea of trading up last season, which ultimately took place, trading down looks like an attractive opportunity in 2024.
For the Steelers, it’d be a rare move. Since 2000, they’ve only traded down in the first round once. That came in 2001 when Kevin Colbert shifted down three spots and still came away with NT Casey Hampton. But he was conservative when moving down, not wanting to get stuck missing out on his targets, and never did it again throughout the rest of his tenure. Over his last decade, he didn’t trade down in any round during the draft. That streak ended last year under Omar Khan, the Steelers moving down in the third round to recoup a fourth he gave up to get Broderick Jones with their first pick. Perhaps this is the year he breaks the first round trade down drought.
Though it’s just pure speculation (like most everything else draft-related) to flesh out an idea of what trading down looks like, here are two scenarios that make sense.
Trade Scenario No. 1 (with Arizona Cardinals)
Pittsburgh Trades: No. 20, No. 119
Arizona Trades: No. 27, No. 71, No. 138
Why It Makes Sense: The Cardinals are a potential trade-up team with NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein confident Arizona will push up from that 27th pick.
Zierlein thinks they’d be looking for an EDGE rusher so it wouldn’t conflict with any player Pittsburgh is targeting. Arizona has the capital to offer, entering the draft with a league-high 11 picks. And they could acquire even more if they move down from No. 4 if a team is looking for a quarterback, like the New York Giants at No. 6 or Denver Broncos at No. 12.
Beyond the first round, the Cardinals own the No. 35, No. 66, No. 71, No. 90, and No. 104 picks. I doubt they stand pat and make all those selections. Look for them to be aggressive and deal one of those third rounders. Send it to Pittsburgh and the Steelers have three selections in the third round, helping to fill out the roster and address all their needs before depth in the draft falls off.
Using the old-school trade value chart, the Steelers’ return nets them 952 points. The Cardinals return nets them 906 points. A win for Pittsburgh but Arizona will have to give up a little extra to convince teams like the Steelers to come down.
The pick swap helps compensate Arizona slightly since it is giving up a decent price with that 71st pick. Just helps balance things out a little bit while the Steelers maintain having one additional selection in the draft, one key goal of this deal.
Trade Scenario No. 2 (with Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Pittsburgh Trades: No. 20
Tampa Bay Trades: No. 26, No. 92
Why It Makes Sense: As we wrote about yesterday, Buccaneers GM Jason Licht is using the Steelers’ 20th pick as their first line in the sand to determine whether or not they want to trade up. Certainly, no guarantee they actually do it but Omar Khan could get a phone call from Tampa if someone the Bucs like drops.
Tampa Bay has a pair of third rounders, No. 89 and No. 92, and that capital makes it more practical for Licht to move up in the draft. The Steelers get the latter of their picks, giving them No. 84, No. 92, and No. 98 in the third round. And they only have to go down six spots for it.
The trade value chart shows the Steelers getting back 832 points while the Bucs get back 85o points.
Will this happen on draft day? Honest truth is no one knows. It all depends on the board and the offers. But these two scenarios make sense on both sides and the Steelers certainly have plenty of incentive to work the phones and move down on Day 1.
