Scott Pavelle’s final Pittsburgh Steelers mock draft, predicting what he thinks the team will do during this week’s 2024 NFL Draft.
PICK 1:20 (#20 overall) – OC Graham Barton, Duke
I think this comes down to three names: OT Amarius Mims, T/G Taliese Fuaga, and C/G/T Graham Barton. The Depot scouting reports give all three solid Round 1 value, with grades of 9.1, 8.9, and 8.8, respectively. My personal grades are even tighter, equivalent to something like a trio of 9.0s. I will have zero objections if the team ends up with any of the three. So why predict Barton? It comes down to the current state of emergency at center, and my belief that the team grades Dan Moore Jr. much, much, much, much, much more generously than the fan base.
I don’t believe for a second that Omar Khan thought he’d be heading into the draft without a veteran center. If I had to guess, I’d say the market changed underneath him, and the centers he wanted signed with someone else by the time that trend became clear. It’s only a guess but it does make sense. In any case, that might have been a small mistake, but as with every cautionary war story, it had consequences he’ll never forget. The reality is that Pittsburgh now needs a center while it merely wants to bargain shop in the year’s amazing pool of Round 1 tackles. I have Graham Barton on the board at 1:15, so value at 1:20 is not a concern. One can argue that my two tackle targets deserve to be seen as 1:20 steals instead of ‘just’ a bargain, and that’s a fun discussion to have in some abstract sense, but it’s also the cost to be paid for Omar’s oops. Besides, I want a center anyway for historical reasons and might well have preferred Barton even if he (like the tackles) would have ended up sitting and learning behind an entrenched starter.
| C/G/T Graham Barton, Duke (Senior). 6-5⅜, 313 lbs. with 32⅞” arms and 9⅜” hands. 21, turns 22 in June. [Mtg. at Combine, Pro Day, Visit] Graham Barton is, plain and simple, a phenomenal offensive lineman prospect. He’s going to be picked in Round 1, even if it’s not by the Steelers. How can I say that with such confidence? Because he’s the year’s #1 center, #1 guard, and the class; the #6-8 tackle in the class. True five-position flexibility is incredibly rare and gives him one of the highest floors of any player at any position. Barton can do it because he’s an incredible athlete (“incredible” as in a perfect 10.0 RAS that includes the hard to find agility testing), and an even better football player. Your humble author is a big-time fan, but I’m just a drop in the proverbial bucket of admiration produced by every reviewer who’s taken the time to study his tape. Jim Hester’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 1 grade of 8.8) is just one of many that fits Barton into an archetype we only see in occasional years: the fringe-1st college tackle who (a) succeeded on athleticism, attitude, and very advanced technique, but (b) projects better as an IOL because he lacks the desired wingspan for an NFL OT. After a long list of superlative assets, Hester concludes: “For the Pittsburgh Steelers, I don’t just ‘think’ that this guy will be on their radar… he will be [] firmly in their crosshairs… Sometimes, there are guys in the draft who just scream Steeler. To me, Barton is that guy. He is more than capable of playing center and his strengths align very well for the position.” Your humble author agrees completely. (FWIW, this year actually has two in that category, the other being Barton’s long-time comparison twin Troy Fautanu). Examples from recent years include the soon-to-be-fellow Round 1 picks Peter Skoronski and Alijah Vera-Tucker, both of whom started at guard because teams (other than the Steelers!) tend to value that higher than center. However, Pittsburgh wants an heir to Pouncey more than the next DeCastro. Fortunately enough, there is not a credible expert who doubts Barton’s ability to play both positions with plug-and-play expertise. You can start with Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile, which lists Barton as CTR1 by a healthy margin: “Though he played at a high level at left tackle, center will likely be his NFL home.” Quotes during the Combine coverage included “A lock to go Day 1,” and “He’s checked every single box; every box I can even think of… [I expect to see] multiple Pro Bowls at center.” From retired GM Rick Spielman when asked about Barton’s position: “He can play center. He can play guard. He can play football.” According to this article, “it looks like NFL teams are mostly viewing him as a center because he is working primarily at that position at his pro day.” This video from Arthur Moats sees an ideal center as well, with the position flexibility as a major bonus. You can add in Mel Kiper Jr. (“Graham Barton is a plug and play center”), Daniel Jeremiah (“Overall, I see Barton as an athletic center [or guard] with the ability to survive at tackle if needed”), and Dane Brugler as well. The Steelers brass likewise see Barton as a center if Gerry Dulac (who predicts a tackle) can be believed. Bottom line: the talent would justify a Top 5 grade if he played a higher value position but dropped to the back half of Round 1 due to positional value concerns. The assets as a blocker start with rare explosion off the line, physical strength, unbreakable hand strength, pro-ready technique, a renowned work ethic, an enormous football IQ, dominance in the run game… and I could continue on from there but will save the space. . Wow. The downsides all have to do with questions about whether his merely human length would limit his continued success as a blind side tackle – which Pittsburgh would not ask him to do outside of season-ending emergencies. The 2020 freshman shows every center-specific physical skill you look for: quick, clean, and accurate snaps, natural sets after snapping, etc. The freshman tape does not show a fully mature offensive lineman, but those are the skills that stand out most in his subsequent play at tackle. Stitch the two together and you get, well, this. Depot personnel asked Barton about playing center during this interview at the Combine. On snapping the ball, “It’s like riding a bike… a learned skill, and once you have that skill it’s something you carry on.” He also showed a full understanding of the mental aspect of playing center, “Yeah, there’s a lot of thinking going on. You’ve gotta identify fronts, [] get everyone on the same page, flip protections if different things happen, and you gotta command the huddle… You’re almost like a second quarterback of the offense.” I suggest starting the rest of your research with the Draft Network scouting profile (a “textbook” technician and “Pro Bowl caliber” IOL prospect) and the PFN scouting profile (“[Barton’s] combination of athleticism, power, flexibility, footwork feel, anchor strength, football IQ, and physicality allows him to seamlessly transition between roles”). Then, go on to the scouting report by Brandon Thorn, who is one of the best and always deserves a full read. Don’t miss it! Barton fans would like to quote the whole thing, but in the interest of space, I will only sum up: (a) Thorn agrees with every superlative in the Depot scouting report, and (b) he confirms the all-important intangibles. “[Barton has] renowned leadership qualities, work ethic and drive to improve.” This particularly good, December scouting profile from PFN ends with a fringe-1st grade and this intriguing summary: “…Barton’s ability to play any spot in a pinch would be immensely valuable, [b]ut as an interior lineman, his elite athleticism and overwhelming power and physicality grant him an extremely high ceiling.” This solid January scouting profile from NFL Draft Buzz does a good job of explaining the limitations that would make it hard for Barton to be an all-pro tackle and then explains why he does project at that level on the inside: aggression, explosion off the snap, football IQ, coordination with linemates, run blocking, etc. “[Graham Barton also] has the football IQ to handle setting protections at the line of scrimmage, and he displays excellent instincts and awareness after the snap, effectively adjusting to twists and stunts.” Summarizing this New Year’s scouting profile: “In regard to stance, power, and nastiness, Barton is undoubtedly a first-round talent. Smart… explodes upward through his blocks… textbook technique… an absolute mauler in the run game… [but he projects better at IOL than tackle].” Another good New Year’s scouting profile adds, “Excellent mover, [] great grip strength, [] tremendous puller and mover in space, [and] has a mean streak to him.” |
PICK 2:19 (# 51 overall) – WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
Once again, I’m pretty comfortable saying the Steelers will pick a WR in Round 2 if the team walks out of Day 1 with a center. The roster need and the talent simply line up too well. The assets to target are fine route running and excellent hands because they will want a move-the-chains guy, at least good speed to avoid being predictable, some blocking ability, and the tough-minded attitude to let George Pickens hog the big play glory in an Arthur Smith offense where glory is in shorter supply. That leaves me with three main options, one of whom should still be on the board at 2:51: Ladd McConkey from Georgia, Ricky Pearsall from Florida, and Roman Wilson from Michigan.
The Depot scouting report grades are 7.9, 7.9, and 8.1, respectively, close enough for a tossup, especially with how the scouting process has worked out after those reports came out. The descriptions are very similar as well. McConkey is my favorite because he’s the best separator of the group, but he’s also the weakest blocker and the one most likely to be off the board. I find it very hard to separate the other two based on the information available to people in our position. I’m going to predict Roman Wilson instead of Ricky Pearsall only because of height. Pearsall is almost two inches taller and I can see one of the Top 50 teams viewing that as a reason to choose him first. That leaves Wilson as the most likely to be available at 51.
If that sounds like the weakest kind of tea, it is. I would be delighted with any of the three, or with Ja’Lynn Polk for that matter, and I truly have no favorite beyond that finger’s-weight preference for how McConkey’s highlight film made me laugh out loud.
| WR Roman Wilson, Michigan (Senior). 5-10½, 186 lbs. with 30¼” arms and 9⅛” hands. 22, turns 23 in June. [Mtg. at Senior Bowl, Pro Day] A freak athlete with all the speed, explosiveness, and COD you could ever want. Has the potential to be a faster, better Diontae Johnson, but at this point it is only that – potential. Like Johnson, he should start by working in the slot before moving to the outside where longer, physical CB’s might smother him with press coverage techniques. Jonathan Heitritter’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 2 grade of 8.1) adds that Wilson is a very tough kid, and “a tenacious blocker [who] gets after it in the running game…. [who plays] bigger than his listed size.” That would be an important asset for the expected Steelers offense. “[A] technically refined WR who is a true craftsman at the position.” For the warning signs, Jon points to Wilson’s genuine size limitations and “plenty of double catches on his tape” despite “good awareness and strong hands” overall. As expected, Wilson tested as an elite athlete whose RAS is only held back by his lack of exceptional size. The NFL.com scouting profile by Lance Zierlein (fringe-1st) calls Wilson a “smooth strider with alarming speed once he touches top gear… Driving acceleration… Much more sure-handed and natural as a pass-catcher in 2023… Competitive and focused…” His college potential was never realized in Michigan’s ground-and-pound offense. |
PICK 3:20 (# 84 overall) – CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
With center and wide receiver taken care of, I confidently predict the 3.A pick will be one of these prospects:
| CB Mike Sainristil | DT/DE Kris Jenkins | ILB Edgerrin Cooper | OT Roger Rosengarten |
| CB Mike Melton | DT/DE Ruke Orhorhoro | ILB Payton Wilson | OT Blake Fisher |
| CB Andru Phillips | DT/DE Maason Smith | OT Kiran Amegadjie |
I want to pick one of the DTs, but the more mocks I see, the less likely it seems to be selected. The same goes for the two ILBs. That leaves the three slot corners and the three offensive tackles. I like all three corners better than any of the tackles, so that’s the target.
Most mocks have Sainristil going first, but I believe the snap count problem will most likely slide Phillips and Melton ahead. Even the best slot corner plays no more than 600-800 snaps. Mike Hilton was in the 400-600 range during his years in Pittsburgh and barely around 700 in Cincinnati. Corners who can also play on the outside can play 800-1100, a significant increase. Mike Sainristil stands in at 5903, which makes him a slot-only player. One of the best slot-only prospects I’ve seen, but that’s still the verdict. Andru Phillips and Mike Melton have inside/outside versatility, which means that NFL teams will tend to pick them first. Bottom line: the odds of Mike Sainristil are much better than people think, and when it happens the Steelers should pull the trigger fast.
| Slot CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan (RS Senior). 5-9⅜, 182 lbs. with 30⅞” arms and 8½” hands. 23, turns 24 in October. [Mtg. at Combine, Pro Day] Born in Haiti. Sainristil is an experienced corner on a championship defense who is short enough to be considered a slot-only prospect by the NFL. He’s also a perfect specimen of what someone at that position should be. The assets include an endless motor, excellent quickness, good speed, a deep understanding of team defense, and every intangible you could hope to see. Sainristil has been described as a leader for offense and defense alike, with teammates giving him credit for helping to create Michigan’s championship culture. Intelligence, charisma, toughness, production, a scrappy playing style… he’s got it all. Sainristil played WR until 2022, and it shows in his good hands and ability to make the most out of interceptions. He stood out at the Combine for his movement skills and overall athleticism; everything looked smooth, easy, and natural even as others struggled. The RAS came in at 8.48 due to huge debits for size, but that can be written off if he’s viewed purely as a slot corner. He’s said that Mike Hilton is his on-field role model. As Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile puts it, even though Sainristl “has spent just two years as a cornerback and requires more seasoning… [he is] reliable and tough with the athleticism and upside to keep getting better as a nickel corner.” Projects as an excellent special teams player no matter what. Jonathan Heitritter’s gif supported Depot scouting report (Round 3 grade of 7.7) extols his position flexibility with experience as an outside corner, inside corner, and versatile, do it all safety. You’ve got to love his conclusion: “When coming up [with] a pro comparison for Sainristil, former Steelers CB Mike Hilton quickly stood out as a player with similar size, athleticism, and skill set.” Note that Sainristil’s grade on this board has gone up from there as his special level of ‘hearts and smarts’ became more clear. This January Bleacher Report scouting profile adds that Sainristil deserves a bump for being an excellent gunner on coverage teams. |
3:35 (# 98 overall) – OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
The Steelers would love to add a Round 1 offensive tackle to bookend Broderick Jones, but they need an OT3 no matter what. A high-ceiling developmental prospect would be ideal. The team struck silver with both Chuks Okorafor (Round 3) and Dan Moore Jr. (Round 4), and they’ve shown real interest in Blake Fisher, so he’s my pick for this spot right in between where those two went. Here’s hoping for more of the same. This pick would be a smashing success even if Fisher ends up as nothing more than a quality swing tackle and backup.
| OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame (Junior). 6-5¾, 310 lbs. with very long 34⅜” arms and 10” hands. Turned 21 in March. [Mtg. at Combine, Visit] The RT running mate to all-world LT prospect Joe Alt, Fisher started at Notre Dame as a true freshman, the only one in Notre Dame history. That shows a ton of promise. But in 2024? Fisher simply doesn’t have the consistent technique to hold up against grown NFL men and almost certainly made a bad choice in leaving school so early. That said, he’s supposed to be an extremely smart and well-rounded athlete who will have as good a chance as anyone to earn snaps after 2-3 years of NFL coaching . Tossing him in before that could help in run blocking, but the team would absolutely have to put a TE next to him on passing downs and probably keep a RB on standby for the inevitable whiffs. Fisher tests as a good but not extra-good athlete across the board, with an overall RAS of 7.72. Brandon Thorn’s late January scouting profile characterizes Fisher as “a young, long and powerful blocker with good athletic ability” who has a lot of boom-or-bust to his game, supported by physical assets ranging from fine to excellent across the board: quick enough feet, good balance, solid strength, long arms with a strong and skillful punch, good hand usage for the most part, etc. It’s just that he can be manipulated into losing his fundamentals; when that happens, he gets beat, and when he gets beat, he gets trounced. Alex Kozora’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 4 grade of 7.5) sees Fisher as an exceptionally young player with a well-rounded but incomplete game that will always be capped by his lack of “the top-end physical or athletic traits of other linemen in this class.” Alex uses Dan Moore Jr. as his comp for style, but with unknowns at the areas where Dan Moore still needs to improve. “Across the board in the run and pass game, Fisher is solid everywhere but not spectacular anywhere. He’s young with a game that can and needs to grow.” Alex disagrees on Thorn about the initial punch, calling it “messy,” and sees a slew of small issues arising from areas where Fisher looks like “a bit of a robotic mover and not super fluid” and fails to show “high-end traits.” Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile offers something more like a late-2nd grade, seeing an athletic prospect who occasionally gets off the ball late, which creates a cascade of glaringly bad moments that make his film look worse than his fundamentals really are. |
PICK 4:19 (# 119 overall) – Buck ILB/TEAMS Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
The Steelers have shown a consistent midlevel interest in linebackers during the predraft process, with coach Aaron Curry hitting a slew of pro days, including Eichenberg’s. The team also had a formal interview with him at the Combine. So pretty much everyone agrees he’s dead center on the Steelers’ draft board. But… Round 4? I think the answer is “yes” because the sheer fit is too good to ignore. Indeed, there is only one thing missiing: in the ideal world you’d find a cover-capable Mack type to back up Patrick Queen and replace the injured Cole Holcomb. Eichenberg is more of an extra-agile Buck who will play closer to the line with an emphasis on run support. Sort of like (and this is what sold me) a combination of Elandon Roberts with extra agility and Tyler Matakevich’s tackling, attitude, and special teams potential.
Eichenberg will start his NFL career as an instant special teams ace – a role that has never been more important for ILBs due to the new kick return rules. He’s also got a football IQ advanced enough to immediately compete with Mark Robinson for the Buck ILB backup role. And he will instantly fit the team culture as an emotional leader and glue guy. That adds up to fine value for a Round 4 pick. The measurements and testing in this class say an equivalent athlete could be around in Round 6, but those intangibles push Eichenberg over the top.
PICK 6:02 (# 178 overall) – WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
I haven’t dug down into the later-round prospects anywhere near as much as I usually do. I’m not sure why, but there it is. When I have looked, there is really just one name that stuck out: an early draft crush who would fit in perfectly as a backup returner, gadget guy, inspirational spark plug for the WR room, and bowling ball tough guy for the coverage unit. That’s Ainias Smith.
The Steelers have shown no particular interest, the roster already includes several smaller receivers, and the meeting numbers suggest that a safety would make more sense. Tough. If the young Mr. Smith has charms enough to hold my attention for all these long months and to earn an impressive grade from a tough reviewer like Tom Mead, he’s bound to be on the Pittsburgh radar as well. Besides, Pittsburgh’s other short receivers have games built around speed, while Ainias Smith plays more like a miniature Hines Ward who’s out there looking for trouble. The Steelers WR room has bothered me for years because it’s felt short on intangibles like grit, fire, and discipline. The combination of Roman Wilson in Round 2 plus Ainias Smith in Round 6 would turn that completely around. Accuse me of wishful thinking all you want, but most mock drafts project a fall to about this point in the draft, and if that happens, I will hope and believe that Ainias Smith would be the pick.
| WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M (RS Senior). 5-9⅜, 190 lbs. with 29¼” arms and 8½” hands. Turns 23 in May. Team captain. Ainias Smith plays like an unusually short but very solid punt returner who studied Hines Ward for inspiration when it comes to blocking, fiery demeanor, and doing all the little extras to help his team win. He ended his college career with a pass caught in 36 consecutive games. His style is built on very good agility, power, and speed. The weaknesses amount to merely professional speed, limited size (which shows in play strength), and the fact that he isn’t an acrobat in the air or the next Barry Sanders on the ground. Yin and yang. Toughness… the toughness and team-first attitudes are off the charts. The new kickoff rules require two return men for each play, and Smith would make a great #2 across from Cordarrelle Patterson. This late-January scouting profile has a good summary: “Ainias Smith is an electric playmaker [and return man] with the versatility to align all over the formation… A nightmare to cover in man… a mature and nuanced route-runner but lacking the hips to snap off routes and explosion to threaten more experienced corners. Natural hands… and isn’t afraid to go over the middle.” This PFN scouting profile is the one that got me excited: “A coach’s dream (does ALL the dirty work… Willing run blocker against LARGE humans… Experience at both WR and RB… [and even a] very willing pass protector.” Oh yes. Please, yes. Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile (Round 4-5 grade) says Smith is “a possession slot… with a somewhat unusual blend of elusiveness and power… who can run more complicated routes underneath while also offering the courage to work successfully into the middle of the field.” In the weaknesses section, Zierlein notes that Smith “appeared to be missing his second gear in 2023 after recovering from a fractured leg suffered in 2022… but started looking more like himself later in the season.” Tom Mead’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 4 grade of 7.4) ends with player comps to the likes of Christian Kirk and Skyy Moore “as a route runner, plus the general toughness he displays… players who have clearly defined roles in the NFL but could contribute right away in multiple ways to a team.” Including the locker- and WR-rooms, which really does matter. |
PICK 6:19 (# 195 overall) – DT Jaden Crumedy, Mississippi State
I found Jaden Crumedy almost as early in the process as Ainias Smith, but it wasn’t because of his play so much as his measurements. I ran down the list of prospects, cross-referenced it against the Steelers’ list of desired assets, and highlighted everyone who might be a fit. Jaden Crumedy and Gabe Hall popped right up as the best Day 3 targets. Crumedy seems more likely to fall, so he is my prediction for Pick 6B.
FWIW, I personally believe the team should go big or go home when it comes to DT/DE. Land Ruke Orhorhorho, Kris Jenkins, or Maason Smith in Round 3, or else wait to spend a Round 1-2 pick on the position in 2025. I’m done picking JAGs (Just A Guys) in the hope of finding the bargain who will ‘get it’ with some professional coaching. But the tea leaves suggest otherwise. One has to believe the Steelers used a 30-visit on Crumedy for a reason, and that would be Round 6.
| DT Jaden Crumedy, Miss. St. (RS Senior). 6-3⅞, 301 lbs. with 33” arms and 10½” hands. 23, turns 24 in July. [Mtg. at Visit] He looks the part even by Pittsburgh’s strict standards if you allow for slightly shorter than desired arm length. One has to imagine it is within the looser standards for a Day 3 pick, right? Crumedy is very athletic (RAS 9.10), with excellent foot speed, good explosion, and skill for the run defense part of his job. The issue? He doesn’t seem to “get it,” he’s shown very little pass rush, and he has a reputation for disappearing from a game or (worse) appearing in the wrong gap. Definitely on the radar as a Day 3 developmental prospect if the team can’t find someone better in Rounds 1-4. The gif-supported Depot scouting report by Jonathan Heitritter (Round 4 grade of 7.1) describes Crumedy as a reliably solid run defender from the physical POV, who already plays with low pads, but whose shown little more than the occasionally impressive flash as a run defender. |
CONCLUSION
This would be a good, solid draft and isn’t all that different from my wish list version. They only diverge in Round 3, where I gave us the DT/DE at 3A, got a slot corner at 3B, and then snagged a developmental tackle in the 4th. Hoping for DT/CB/OT, versus predicting CB/OT/ILB. Regardless, I like the picks in both and really hope to see a similar result.
1:20 (#20 overall) – C/G/T Graham Barton, Duke
2:19 (# 51 overall) – WR Roman Wilson, Michigan
3:20 (# 84 overall) – CB Mike Sainristil, Michigan
3:35 (# 98 overall) – OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
4:19 (# 119 overall) – ILB/TEAMS Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
6:02 (# 178 overall) – WR/GADGET/TEAMS Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
6:19 (# 195 overall) – DT Jaden Crumedy, Mississippi State
