I’ve done four mocks up to now, all designed to explore various options and expose our readers to players worth a second look. There will be one more mock after this one: my best effort to predict what will actually happen. This is the one about what I want to happen. There are only two rules. LUCKY IS FINE BUT OUTRAGEOUS IS NOT, and NO TRADES ALLOWED.
Free Agency Has Left A Problem
The 2024 offseason offers us a scene I have never really seen before. The Steelers will enter the draft actual holes in the roster. Say what you want about Kevin Colbert, but he was a past master at dumpster diving well enough to focus on BPA throughout the draft. I’ll even go so far as to say this is the first blot on Omar Khan’s regime. The 2024 offseason will become a favorite war story he’ll use as a cautionary tale in the many years to come. “To heck with the market, I should never have let us be cornered into actually needing a starter at any position, let alone two or three.”
I don’t like the feeling. In fact, I dislike it so much that I will hereby unload all of our fan-level guns in a single volley: “Tut, tut Omar. Tsk, tsk! Make sure to learn from your mistake.”
Oh, the power! The glory of being an Internet tough guy! I hope you feel as much better as I do. Smell those armpits.
Wants And Needs
- Starting Center. There’s just no choice. Mason Cole is the best option left if the team fails to get a true, starter-capable player in the draft, and even Mike Tomlin has said they’re very thin on the ground.
- Starting WR2. I’m old enough to remember football back in the days when every team ran something that looked like an Arthur Smith offense: two WRs plus some combination of TEs and RBs for the other ball carrying. This team has its John Stallworth, but it needs to find Lynn Swann.
- INSERT PAUSE. Those two are actual needs, and Pittsburgh will be a 2024 bottom dweller if they do not get addressed. What follow are “wants.” Some are bigger, and others smaller, but they aren’t the same as those needs.
- Slot Corner. This is another empty spot on the roster, but there are veterans on the street who could fill the hole as one-year stopgaps. If there is no other choice, at least. Patrick Peterson is the obvious example, and it would not surprise me if he and Omar Khan have an informal, “if this happens” understanding in place. Other slot-capable options include the likes of J.C. Jackson, Chandon Sullivan, Tre Herndon, and a few more. A talented draft pick is the best long-term answer, but the failure to find a slot CB wouldn’t be the stroke of doom.
- OT3 and/or Future Starter. People tend to focus on whether Dan Moore Jr. (a) should be drawn, quartered, and staked on an anthill with his eyes glued open, or (b) serves as a viable stopgap until someone better happens along. That misses a bigger question. Who is the OT3? The odds say that Moore and/or Broderick Jones will miss at least a few games this year. Who would step in? I see no one on the roster but unproven, late-round picks and UDFAs. Then comes another big question that people have glossed over: Who will be the OT2 in 2025? Moore is going into a contract year and will expect to be P.A.I.D. He’s an NFL tackle with several years of starting experience, and there’s just no way around it. Then comes another fact: tackle prospects with any kind of ceiling get picked in the top 10-20 selections, or else require something like a year or more of coaching before they’re ready to play against veterans. (Exhibit 1 = Broderick Jones). Moore will have the team over a barrel if it fails to have someone ready to step in.
- Future DT1. In a way it’s much like the OT situation, with Cam Heyward’s age as the impending threat in place of Dan Moore’s second contract; and with better options for 2024. The Steelers could field a powerful defensive line tomorrow with just the men on the roster. Things will only start to look very bleak once Heyward (turns 35 in early May) start his inevitable decline. Pick a developmental DT in 2024 or plan on spending a Round 1-2 pick there in 2025. It’s just that simple. Keeanu Benton in 2023 was a fine start but the process must continue.
- ILB Depth. The team would be in great shape if Cole Holcomb was ready to play alongside Patrick Queen and Elandon Roberts. He isn’t, and I have the strong impression he won’t be until sometime around December, if then. That leaves Queen (yay!), Roberts (yay!), Mark Robinson (still hoping!), and a gap.
- Special Teams. The new kickoff rules will require players with the size and athleticism to run, block, and tackle other NFL athletes in open space. That puts a premium on teams-capable linebackers, safeties, big corners, big receivers, big RBs, and TEs. Maybe an occasional OL or DL if the gods are kind, but they are too rare to count on. The safety, corner, and TE rooms look adequate for the task, but Robinson is the only ILB (you want 2-3), and I see basically no contributors at all from the OLB, WR, and RB rooms. The team needs more athletic bodies.
Summing up, I believe the team has been forced, willingly or not, to pick a center and a WR with two of its first three picks. It could be OT/C/WR, C/WR/DT, WR/C/CB, or any other permutation, but two of the first three spots are preordained. I don’t like it. Tut, tut, and tsk, tsk.
PICK 1:20 (#20 overall) – OC Graham Barton, Duke
Yes, he’s my guy. Anyone who hasn’t figured that out has their head in the sand. But please, rest assured, I gave serious consideration to other options too:
Center | Tackle | Cornerback | Receiver |
Graham Barton Jackson Powers-Johnson |
JC Latham Amarius Mims T/G Taliese Fuaga OL Troy Fautanu |
Terrion Arnold Cooper DeJean Kool-Aid McKinstry Nate Wiggins |
Brian Thomas Jr. |
The problem? No trades allowed.
I simply cannot stomach skipping a great center prospect in Round 1 if I cannot trade up in Round 2 to cover that hole. For the sake of full disclosure, I’d be on the fence even if trading was allowed. My grade on Graham Barton puts him in a dead heat with Mims and Fuaga and a hair ahead of everyone else. Tackle JC Latham strays behind because I question his suitability for an outside zone attack; Fautanu because I worry about his size; and everyone else because I prefer to bolster the OL. There are no bad names on that list. Every one would help this team in significant ways. But eventually a GM needs to pick his choice for best of the best, and Graham Barton is mine.
Looking deeper, say I did pick Fuaga or Mims (my No.’s 2 and 3) instead. I project a 0.0001% chance we could trade up to get Barton because the IOL-hungry Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick at 1:24, 1:25, and 1:26. That will be that.
JPJ might fall into Round 2. He is a center-only prospect, after all, who would play guard at a lower level. In the ideal world he would fall just enough for the Steelers to move up and snag him at 2:37. It’s hard to see him dropping much further, however. As Dave Bryan documented last week, the low 40s present a second murderer’s row of teams eagerly waiting to snatch him up.
The final prospect in line would be Zach Frazier. He presents a tougher dilemma. I adore Frazier’s hearts and smarts, but that doesn’t blind me to the concerns about his lack of length and his severe tendency to commit what NFL reps would call a holding penalty. You simply can’t grab a man’s chest plate and lever him over your hip, even if it’s well away from the play. (Note: Sedrick Van Pran-Granger has the same habit.) This means that Frazier really could fall to No. 51. But say we call it 60/40 that he does. Is waiting worth the risk with the entire 2024 season on the line? Or does it make sense to “overpay” in order to buy some security?
Getting back to this mock, I most of you know by now why I’m so high on Graham Barton, but here is a summary for those who don’t:
- Anyone who doubts Barton’s ability to play center is living in his fears. I’ve watched the film, and I do not. Neither do the Depot scouting report, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Rick Spielman, Brandon Thorn, Dane Brugler, Mel Kiper Jr., nor any other respected expert I’ve been able to find. Not. A. Single. One! Pittsburgh’s brass likewise agrees that Graham Barton is a center according to recent reports. “Conversion worries” just aren’t an issue outside of Steeler fans suffering from Kendrick Green-related PTSD.
- If center does somehow turn out to be an issue, Barton could be a DeCastro-level guard prospect with swing tackle versatility. That’s not exactly a bad pick on its own, especially with James Daniels going into a contract year. I wouldn’t invest the 1:20 pick just for that safety net, but it’s certainly a nice piece of insurance.
- The man is a beast. Make no mistake, Barton has as good a chance to be a consistent Pro Bowler, at either IOL spot, as any offensive lineman in the draft regardless of position.
- A list of Barton’s talents would exactly track the Arthur Smith/Pat Meyer wish list. His fluid mobility makes him a much better fit for this offense than JPJ. And… a thought just occurred to me that hasn’t been discussed: Please imagine your ideal center prospect: size, strength, length, athleticism, mobility, technique, etc. Now ask yourself this: What position would that paragon have played in college? The answer isn’t center; it’s left tackle. No college coach focused on wins would leave an offensive lineman with that kind of talent at the pivot position. Barton, of course, played left tackle for most of his college career. So is that really a negative? Or is it a commercial?
The only real argument against Graham Barton comes down to “positional value,” a concept that most people seem to misunderstand. Positional value does not mean that good tackles increase your odds of winning a game by more than good centers or guards! At least not by more than a percentage akin to saying 6-2 WRs are better than 6-1. It may be logically true, but the difference between very good and only good drowns that out by a ton. Tackles get paid a premium because of supply and demand. The body type and skill set are just too rare. Look up the “planet theory” if you have any doubts.
Let’s put it another way. The NFL requires some 65 centers: 32 starters and 32 backups. There are probably 70 or so men who can do the job at a backup’s level, which means that almost no team will find itself frozen out. By contrast, the league needs about 100 competent tackles (32 teams with two starters and a backup). Arguably more. And there are fewer men who can do it. Call it 25 in the world that we’d call “good,” a similar number of solid journeymen, and then another set (including Dan Moore Jr.) who can say, “what do you mean by ‘okay?’” Do the math. Those numbers mean that mean that 15-20 teams have a below the line starter and/or an actual hole at OT3, and almost every team can improve its depth. Limited supply and high demand equals inflated salaries, and would even if tackle’s contributed less toward winning percentage than IOLs.
Never forget that bad players at any position hurt a team much more than good ones at any other spot can help (quarterback being the sole exception). Success is a chain, and weak links stand out more than extra strong ones. This is another way to look at Pittsburgh’s current situation.
Starting centers can almost always be found, but the Steelers are the “almost” that proves the rule. Our team has two startable tackles. It has zero startable centers, and no way to find even a top 40 player in the current market. (I put Mason Cole in the 40-50 range). In other words, starting centers are more rare for the 2024 Steelers, not less, which puts a temporary premium on their value. Wine is worth more than water, unless you have no water.
If you doubt the equivalency of IOLs and OTs to on-the-field results, ask any QB if he’d prefer to get pressure from the edge or up the middle. The answer will be, “Neither, but if it has to be one or the other, I’d prefer to have them coming off the edge.” At this point the 2024 Steelers have an open gate running right between the guards. So I really do believe it’s a case of center-or-die; I’m not exaggerating or falling into a panic; and yes, I believe that removes the normal finger on the scale that favors tackles over centers – if only for this team, in this particular year.
The other “positional value” argument goes to guard versus center. Most teams place the higher value on guards and will move someone who’s equally capable at both away from the pivot. Hence the idea that Barton “should” be seen as a guard since both IOL spots suit him just as well. I, a devoted Pittsburgh fan, have just one response: Mansfield to Webster to Dawson to Hartings to Pouncey; and six Super Bowl rings. Those other teams have it wrong. Center, not guard, is the more important spot. Please share your thoughts in the comments if you disagree.
In any case, the choice comes down to (A) a safe, starter-ready, Pro Bowl-caliber prospect at center, versus (B) riskier but equally high-ceiling, Pro Bowl-caliber prospects at tackle. It’s a tough choice because of the planet theory concerns for 2025 and beyond, especially if you consider the cap benefits of productive tackles on a rookie contract. But I vote for option “A”. Here is the current Big Board entry.
C/G/T Graham Barton, Duke (Senior). 6-5⅜, 313 lbs. with 32⅞” arms and 9⅜” hands. 21, turns 22 in June. [Mtg. at Combine, Pro Day, Visit] Barton just plain good, and is going to be picked in Round 1 by someone even if it’s not the Steelers. How can I say that with such confidence? Because he’s the year’s No. 1 center, No. 1 guard, and the class; the No. 6-8 tackle in the class. True five-position flexibility is incredibly rare, and it gives him one of the highest floors of any player at any position. Barton can do it because he’s an incredible athlete (“incredible” as in a perfect 10.0 RAS, a score that includes the hard-to-find agility testing) and an even better football player. Your humble author is a big-time fan, but I’m just a drop in the proverbial bucket of admiration produced by every reviewer who’s taken the time to study his tape. Jim Hester’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 1 grade of 8.8) is just one of many that fits Barton into an archetype we only see in occasional years: the fringe-first college tackle who (a) succeeded on athleticism, attitude, and very advanced technique, but (b) projects better as an IOL because he lacks the desired wingspan for an NFL OT. After a long list of superlative assets, Hester concludes: “For the Pittsburgh Steelers, I don’t just ‘think’ that this guy will be on their radar… he will be firmly in their crosshairs… Sometimes there are guys in the draft who just scream Steeler. To me, Barton is that guy. He is more than capable of playing center and his strengths align very well for the position.” Your humble author agrees completely. (FWIW, this year actually has two in that category; the other being Barton’s longtime comparison twin Troy Fautanu). Examples from recent years include the soon-to-be-fellow Round 1 picks Peter Skoronski and Alijah Vera-Tucker, both of whom started at guard because teams (other than the Steelers!) tend to value that higher than center. Pittsburgh wants an heir to Pouncey, however, more than the next DeCastro. Fortunately enough, there is not a credible expert who doubts Barton’s ability to play both positions with plug-and-play expertise. You can start with Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile, which lists Barton as CTR1 by a healthy margin: “Though he played at a high level at left tackle, center will likely be his NFL home.” Quotes during the Combine coverage included “A lock to go Day 1,” and “He’s checked every single box; every box I can even think of… [I expect to see] multiple Pro Bowls at center.” From retired GM Rick Spielman when asked about Barton’s position: “He can play center. He can play guard. He can play football.” According to this article, “It looks like NFL teams are mostly viewing him as a center because he is working primarily at that position at his pro day.” This video from Arthur Moats sees an ideal center as well, with the position flexibility as a major bonus. You can add Mel Kiper Jr. (“Graham Barton is a plug and play center”), Daniel Jeremiah (“Overall, I see Barton as an athletic center [or guard] with the ability to survive at tackle if needed”), and Dane Brugler as well. The Steelers brass likewise see Barton as a center if Gerry Dulac (who predicts a tackle) can be believed. Bottom line: the talent would justify a top-5 grade if he played a higher value position but drops to the back half of Round 1 due to positional value concerns. [INSERT ¶ BREAK] The assets as a blocker start with rare explosion off the line, physical strength, unbreakable hand strength, pro-ready technique, a renowned work ethic, an enormous football IQ, dominance in the run game… and I could continue on from there but will save the space. Wow. The downsides all have to do with questions about whether his merely human length would limit his continued success as a blind side tackle – which Pittsburgh would not ask him to do outside of season-ending emergencies. The 2020 freshman shows every center-specific physical skill you look for: quick, clean and accurate snaps, natural sets after snapping, etc. The freshman tape does not show a fully mature offensive lineman, but those are the skills that stand out most in his subsequent play at tackle. Stitch the two together and you get, well, this. Depot personnel asked Barton about playing center during this interview at the Combine. On snapping the ball, “It’s like riding a bike… a learned skill, and once you have that skill it’s something you carry on.” He also showed a full understanding of the mental aspect of playing center, “Yeah, there’s a lot of thinking going on. You’ve gotta identify fronts, get everyone on the same page, flip protections if different things happen, and you gotta command the huddle… You’re almost like a second quarterback of the offense.” I suggest starting the rest of your research with the Draft Network scouting profile (a “textbook” technician and “Pro Bowl caliber” IOL prospect) and the PFN scouting profile (“[Barton’s] combination of athleticism, power, flexibility, footwork feel, anchor strength, football IQ, and physicality allows him to seamlessly transition between roles”). Then go on to the scouting report by Brandon Thorn, who is one of the best and always deserve a full read. Don’t miss it! Barton fans would like to quote the whole thing, but in the interest of space I will only sum up: (a) Thorn agrees with every superlative in the Depot scouting report, and (b) he confirms the all-important intangibles. “[Barton has] renowned leadership qualities, work ethic and drive to improve.” This particularly good, December scouting profile from PFN ends with a fringe-1st grade and this intriguing summary: “…Barton’s ability to play any spot in a pinch would be immensely valuable, [but] as an interior lineman, his elite athleticism and overwhelming power and physicality grant him an extremely high ceiling.” This solid January scouting profile from NFL Draft Buzz does a good job of explaining the limitations that would make it hard for Barton to be an All-Pro tackle, and then explains why he does project at that level on the inside; aggression, explosion off the snap, football IQ, coordination with linemates, run blocking, etc. “[Graham Barton also] has the football IQ to handle setting protections at the line of scrimmage, and he displays excellent instincts and awareness after the snap, effectively adjusting to twists and stunts.” Summarizing this New Year’s scouting profile: “In regard to stance, power, and nastiness, Barton is undoubtedly a first-round talent. Smart… explodes upward through his blocks… textbook technique… an absolute mauler in the run game… [but he projects better at IOL than tackle].” Another good New Year’s scouting profile adds, “Excellent mover, great grip strength, tremendous puller and mover in space, [and] has a mean streak to him.” |
PICK 2:19 (# 51 overall) – WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
Here are my all-targets board for Round 2:
G/T Jordan Morgan | QB Michael Penix Jr. | ILB Edgerrin Cooper | CB Kamari Lassiter | WR Keon Coleman |
OT Patrick Paul | ILB Payton Wilson | CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | WR Malachi Corley | |
OT Kingsley Suamataia | WR Troy Franklin | |||
WR Xavier Legette | ||||
WR Ladd McConkey | ||||
WR Ricky Pearsall | ||||
WR Ja’Lynn Polk | ||||
WR Roman Wilson | ||||
WR Xavier Worthy |
Those are decent tackle prospects for the long run, but I don’t see any who should be a 2025 asset as both a run and pass blocker, nor a potential starter in 2024. Jordan Morgan creates holes in the run game but has a good way to go as a pass protector. Patrick Paul could start early as a pass protector, but his run blocking is a mess. Kingsley Suamataia…he has a better case, but I can’t recall any mocks where he falls this far. That would be outrageous instead of just lucky, which explains the crossed-out name.
The Steelers have two new QBs to break in, so there simply aren’t enough available snaps to justify a QB pick this high.
ILB and slot CB are on my list of wants, so they remain (assuming a clean bill of health for Payton Wilson).
Enter the giant band of late-first to mid-second WR options. What a class. And the Steelers have met with every single one on that list, so the desire is clearly there. But who would I pick over one of those ILBs or CBs?
I insist on tough guy pass catchers who can block, which rules out Franklin and Worthy, speedy field stretchers rather than multipurpose guys. I also want an early starter, which rules out Corley because he’s never run actual routes. I’m also going to rule out McConkey and Legette, two of my absolute favorites of the class, because (a) it’s hard to see either one falling to 2:51, and (b) both might suffer from the lack of slot-receiver snaps in an Arthur Smith offense. That whittles the Board down to:
ILB Edgerrin Cooper | WR Keon Coleman |
ILB Payton Wilson | WR Ricky Pearsall |
CB Kamari Lassiter | WR Ja’Lynn Polk |
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | WR Roman Wilson |
Coleman has been described as a George Pickens clone who may have run a 4.62 dash at the NFL Scouting Combine but plays at the speed of a 4.50 guy. I can live with that, and he is physical enough… but I don’t want duplicate skill sets, and he’s another who will almost certainly get drafted before the mid-2nd. That leaves Pearsall, Polk, Wilson, and the four defenders.
My personal favorites are the ILBs, no question. I’m an ILB junkie. But it’s just too early in light of the wants and needs analysis. [NOTE: I also expect Edgerrin Cooper to get picked before #51, and I can see Payton Wilson going before Cooper if the doctors provide a clean bill of health]. Slot corner is almost as big a need as WR2 (600 snaps cap versus 900), but the free agency options are better, and the Round 3 depth is awesome.
So WR it is. The Big Board has all three men set down with identical grades. Grrr. The Depot grades are also identical after giving Pearsall a minor bump for what the measurables he displayed after that post was published. Grrr again. Okay… I’m going to decide based on toughness, hands, and the craftiest skill set available. Let’s have a look at the summaries in those departments:
- Ricky Pearsall: “Just a flat-out good football player; has all the measurables; tough as heck, with great hands; and as crafty as you could want.”
- Ja’Lynn Polk: “T.J. Houshmandzadeh 2.0; the perfect Robin; tough as heck, with great hands; and as crafty as you could want.”
- Roman Wilson: “Disciplined, tenacious, and used to a run-first offense; a better receiver than his college film; tough as heck, with great hands; and as crafty as you could want.”
Ooohhh. Aaaahhh. Ohhhh. Aaargh. That was no help either, except to prove there’s no way to lose. Okay. Time to pull out the dice, and… Ricky Pearsall it is, at least this time.
WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida (RS Senior). 6-0⅞, 193 lbs. with 30¾” arms and 9⅛” hands. 23, turns 24 in September. [Mtg. at Pro Day, Visit] Crafty as they come, Pearsall is a smooth, high-IQ player with sensational hands, sophisticated route-running skills, suddenness in stop/start/COD, and overall toughness. I’ve seen him called, “just a flat-out good football player,” which seems to be pretty apt. He’s the sort of prospect who should be a real asset from Day 1 but may be capped at being a fan-favorite, move-the-chains receiver due to never getting all the YAC one hopes for. Why? Simple: He tries, but he’s just not a power forward, make-you-miss, or pseudo-RB type, which adds up to a player who usually goes down when and where he gets hit. Ross McCorkle’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 3 grade of 7.9) balances the “lack [of] top-end athletic traits and long speed” against the basically positive marks for everything else. (NOTE: Pearsall’s super-impressive Combine testing and RAS of 9.0 (held back mostly by height and weight answered a lot of Ross’s questions). Pearsall is plenty fast, though it may be build-up speed more than sudden, field-stretching burst. Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile offers a similar analysis to the Depot scouting report: “Pearsall [is a] dependable slot target with good size and soft hands who might get the stereotypical ‘crafty route runner’ label, but it suits him.” Fair enough. That sounds like an ideal Robin to me, with a promise of early contributions. This good-looking, Giants-oriented profile from mid-March ends in a “solid Day 2 value” grade, while emphasizing that “teams that value receivers as blockers will also likely value Pearsall highly.” Major check mark there. This extensive PFN scouting profile emphasizes that “Pearsall makes his money with truly hyper-elite catching instincts and hands… [which] makes him an asset on money downs.” |
INTERLUDE
Those picks track the top two needs, but that wasn’t the plan. In Round 1, I had Mims, Barton, Fuaga, and Fautanu in a dead tie, with no real edge to go in any direction. The need for a center tipped things over. In Round 2 I had the two ILBs, the two CBs, and three WRs in the kind of tie, with the ILBs being a nostril hair ahead. Again, that’s the kind of moment where positional value takes over. I’m drafting for BPA with need as the tiebreaker, and in this draft the tiebreakers are all it takes.
PICK 3:20 (# 84 overall) – DT/DE Maason Smith, LSU
This one is simple. It’s a best-case mock, so I get to assume that one of my best-case scenarios is going to happen. That means these options for pick No. 84:
CB Mike Sainristil | DT/DE Kris Jenkins |
DT/DE Ruke Orhorhoro | |
DT/DE Maason Smith |
Sainristil exemplifies what I want in a slot corner, both as a player and for the gritty toughness he’ll add to the CB room. But DTs are full time starters, not subpackage players, and it is a serious if longer-term issue to address.
Pittsburgh’s current defensive scheme requires two stars up front who can stuff the run and have an impact in pass rush. Heyward and Tuitt were my platonic ideal. Heyward and Ogunjobi work too, and so does Heyward/Benton. A room with all three is downright terrific. But I wouldn’t be happy with Ogunjobi and Benton unless/until Benton achieves true Pro Bowler status. That leaves a dilemma. Heyward will be 35 in May, and as confident as I am about his 2024 performance, I can’t say the same for 2025, and I’m downright worried for 2026. Even worse, it takes 2-3 years for promising DTs to mature into what the Steelers require. Someone picked in this draft will have that time, but someone in the next will not. That means we’ll be facing a Round 1-2 priority need next year if I can’t fill the pipeline now with a potential star. JAGs (Just A Guys) are all well and good, but they aren’t what the team needs.
These three DLs (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, and Smith) all fit the bill. I wouldn’t take any of them before Round 3 because they are a lot closer to the three-year development curve than two, but in this scenario the one I want is the one that will fall. That would be Maason Smith.
So, should I pick the fiery team leader who will make the entire CB room better from his rookie year on, and immediately contribute a good 600 snaps at a position of need? Or invest in a long-term, high-reward defensive lineman who may see 300 merely rotational snaps as a rookie, and 300-500 more in Year 2, before suddenly arriving as a defensive centerpiece just in time for Captain Cam’s gold watch ceremony? I vote for the trenches. But man, am I ever going to miss Mike Sainristil.
DT Maason Smith, LSU (RS Soph). 6-5⅛, 306 lbs. with (no kidding) 35-inch arms and small 8½-inch hands. 21, turns 22 in October. [Mtg. at Visit] Maason Smith is a pass-rushing DT with fantastic length, very good strength, anchor ability, and motor, and some surprisingly good hands. It’s a long list of assets but offset by problems with his pad level that could take two or even three years of dedicated work to fix. Sounds good for one of the rare players who fits the Steelers mold! Nevertheless, the bottom line is that Smith presents a case of excellent but not awesome traits with very limited experience and concomitantly raw skills. But… a lot of that inexperience happened because he tore an ACL in September 2022. He played through the recovery in 2023, hence the recent film, but Daniel Jeremiah reports that Smith’s recovery wasn’t quite finished. Thus his 2023 tape isn’t as promising as what we saw before the injury, but it’s still pretty darned good. And some reviewers say he was getting back up to full strength by the end of the year. I choose to see the positive side, but the bottom line remains: we’re stuck with projected potential instead of proven production. Here’s another selling point if you need one: add 10 pounds of good, grown-man muscle – which he should be able to do – and Maason Smith would look a lot like Stephon Tuitt. Color me intrigued. Note that Smith moved well, but only well during the Combine and pro day drills, compiling a good but not great RAS of 8.46. The gif-supported Depot scouting report by Jim Hester (Round 3 grade of 8.0) sees enormous potential held back by a lack of “consistency, production, [and] experience.” Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile sounds more like a Round 3-4 grade: “[Smith is a] traits-based prospect with an exciting ceiling but a concerning lack of experience and consistency… Best suited to play as a 3-4 DE…Smith flashes as a pass rusher, which should keep improving… [and is an example of] early-round traits but middle-round tape. Smith requires scheme fit and patience, but he should be no worse than a viable backup.” |
3:35 (# 98 overall) – CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
IMHO, this one amounts to a steal. I’d never predict it in an ordinary year, but this one has such a dense cluster of slot-capable corners for Round 3 that at least a few ought to be available here just before Round 4 begins. Especially since Round 3 will also see the big runs on RBs, ILBs, and TEs, in addition to the final big list of solid WR talent – many of whom could be Round 2 picks in a poor year. Here is my entire list of Round 3 slot CB targets, both ambitious and realistic. Just remember that this is the what-I-want draft, which means I get to pick a bargain.
Max Melton | Kalen King | Renardo Green |
Andru Phillips | S/CB Jaylin Simpson | D.J. James |
Jarrian Jones | Caelen Carson | Chau Smith-Wade |
Kris Abrams-Draine | Josh Newton |
I have no objections to any of those except Kalen King, and that’s an emotional reaction to his awful 2023. (Something’s gone wrong there, and I’ve been burned before by, “It’s got to be some undisclosed injury, and that’s probably healed so…”) I do have three favorites. To me, Melton, Phillips, and Jones stand above the rest. It’s a stretch to guess that any of them could fall down here to the cusp of Round 4, but only that. Lucky but not outrageous. So I’m going to go with Jarrian Jones as the most likely of the three.
Jones offers good size, has worked hard incredibly hard to hone his technique, has improved during every year from outright bad as a freshman to affirmatively good as a senior, and he has inside/outside flexibility. The main flaws I read about have to do with fluidity and moderate length, which would matter more if he was being drafted primarily as a boundary corner. I like it.
CB Jarrian Jones, Florida St. (RS Senior). 5-11⅞, 190 lbs. with 30” arms and 8⅝” hands. Turns 23 in May. A multiyear starter who got abused as a true freshman, eaten like a bag of Wasabi peas as a sophomore and junior, suddenly “got it” as a fourth-year player in 2022, and then looked tremendous in 2023. How many CBs get through an entire season without earning a penalty of any kind? Jones did just that in 2023. No holding, no interference, no nothing. The current version can be described as a top-level cover corner (in college) who wins (in college) on savvy in both man and zone coverage due to his quick reflexes, balance, reliability at getting his head around after the ball is in the air and knack for contested-catch breakups. Jones has good but improvable ball skills and projects equally well to both in the slot and the boundary. Interestingly enough, Jones compiled the best RAS (9.86) of any 2024 cornerback. That suggests some untapped potential that didn’t show up on film. Reviewers seem to be split between early Round 3 and Round 5 grades, apparently because Jones is more twitchy than fluid. A high-end grade would be Jim Hester’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 3 grade of 8.0), which sums Jarrian Jones up as follows: “a CB who is able to play all types of coverages and doesn’t have elite traits in any particular facet…, but does just about everything well… He’s athletic, intelligent, physical, [competitive], and willing to do whatever he can to help a defense.” The NFL.com scouting profile by Lance Zierlein ends with something like a Round-5 grade due to questions about Jones’ athletic ceiling. “[He is an] urgent cornerback with good size [who is] all gas from snap to whistle, [but] can be clunky matching a receiver’s release and has a hard time transitioning through sharp break points…[Jones is] unable to mirror and match release with consistency, [and] struggles to make up vertical separation when beaten.” The typically thorough PFN scouting profile matches up to the testing much better. “Though Jones’ profile isn’t perfect, he has the traits and scheme versatility to be a starting nickel DB… A few select traits underpin Jones’ ability to thrive in coverage. His elite explosiveness, twitch, and recovery speed top the list, [and] he’s also impressively well-versed in off-man coverage, with great vision, click-and-close ability, and physicality at stems… In run and flat support, he’s exceptional…[and] as a blitzer, his searing speed and aggression can catch passers off guard.” |
PICK 4:19 (# 119 overall) – T/G/TEAMS Caedan Wallace, Penn State
I failed to get that Round 1 tackle but remember what I said about the team’s lack of depth. This team could really use a young, developmental OT3, and that’s a perfect type of target for Rounds 3 and 4; an Okorafor or Moore who has starter potential but isn’t there yet. Here are the names on my board:
Blake Fisher, Notre Dame | Christian Jones, Texas | Matt Goncalves, Pitt |
Roger Rosengarten, Washington | Caedan Wallace, Penn St. | |
Javon Foster, Missouri | Walter Rouse, Oklahoma |
The first trio are Round 3 targets who should not last here to Round 4. Of the next four I have clear preference for Walter Rouse and Caedan Wallace. Rouse reminds me more of Okorafor with the education of a Stanford graduate. He already has decent chops already as a pass blocker, but needs to add play strength.
I made the case for Caedan Wallace in my last mock, citing familiarity with his hearts and smarts (he’s best friends with Joey Porter Jr.), his fit with an outside zone run game, and his T/G flexibility. Today I’ll add that his Depot Scouting Grade of 7.6 is higher than every other name on that list, with Rouse and Fisher clocking in at 7.5, followed by Foster at 7.4. Wallace’s 91st percentile athleticism also suggests an ability to contribute on special teams during his journeyman years. But most of all, the recent scouting report by Brandon Thorn, whom I trust, says that Wallace’s issues come down to a problem I grok and know to be fixable.
Thorn says that Wallace has a habit of rising up in mid-movement, which drains whatever edge he built with his get-off, angles, punch, and mobility. He’s got a big old stick of dynamite, he gets it lit with ease, but the fuse burns out right before the thing goes off. I fought the exact same problem several times back in the day, both on my own and then when training others. I promise you – it is 100% fixable. It’s just… slippery, because it amounts to rewiring instead of repairing. This kind of flaw goes back to childhood habits built during games of tag and touch football. It’s easy to fix in principle, but it’s tricky as heck to drive that down into the spine, where thought disappears and reflexes take over. Nevertheless, I solved it for myself; I helped others to solve it on more than one occasion; and I therefore certify that an athlete like Wallace should be able to fix it as well. All it takes is sufficiently obsessive discipline for a sufficiently extended period of time.
If I’m right, 2024 Wallace really needs to be tucked away and left alone until he gets the repair work finished. Use the old wiring before the new set is ready, and the old one regains its strength. So what about 2025, if he’s left alone to drill, drill, and drill some more? Maybe… Even probably. Certainly by Year 3. And once he gets it, he’ll have it, and be ready to start that steady, years-long improvement curve toward whatever his peak may be. A peak that may be surprisingly high given the way improved can fundamentals can unlock the hidden suggested by his testing.
Bottom line: I’m confident that Wallace can grow into a solid, reliable starter if the hearts and smarts are there, and it would be surprising if they’re not. It’s just going to take a year or two of steady and (one hopes) uninterrupted work. He’s your classic diamond in the rough: fair value for a tackle from Pick 80 on, good value from Pick 100 on, and a bargain at Pick 119.
T/G Caedan Wallace, Penn St. (RS Senior). 6-4⅞, 314 lbs. with 34” arms and 10¾” hands. Turned 24 last week. Best friends with Joey Porter Jr. after being his roommate for three years. Guaranteed to be a fan of Thomas Sweets ice cream since he is a huge young man who grew up in Princeton, and it’s some of the best I know. Dark chocolate and mystic mints blend-in, mmmmmm. [Ahem. Sorry, I had a moment there]. Wallace has quick feet and the movement skills to pull and catch defenders out in space. Better at positional blocking that uses his movement skill and general athletic talent (RAS of 9.10), which also shows in a track and field background (shotput and discus). May fit particularly well in the outside zone running attack favored by Arthur Smith. Has improved every year but needs to keep doing so. Tends to be a waist-bender and head-ducker and can be beat around the edge. Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile (Round 3-ish grade of 6.23) calls him “a clock-puncher who plays with better fundamentals and technique than his highly regarded teammate, Olu Fashanu.” High floor, low ceiling. Jim Hester’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 3 grade of 7.6) describes Wallace as a good run blocker and technically inconsistent pass protector who “shouldn’t be asked to start right away, but has a lot of upside to be a productive RT at the next level.” This early-April scouting profile by the estimable Brandon Thorn ends in a Round 4 grade, saying “Wallace is a four-year starter [at RT] in Penn State’s balanced… zone-based scheme.” He’s described as well built, “with good athletic ability, body control, and fluid movement skills along with an understanding of how to play long and maximize his length.” All in all, Wallace has the required talent, but needs to build on his “sizable leap in consistency” last year. The technical flaws have to do with rising up in mid-movement, which is fixable but requires hard work to rebuild basic habits. |
PICK 6:02 (# 178 overall) – ILB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
I’ve been saving this pick until now. The Steelers have looked at a lot of ILBs, including a meeting with Eichenberg himself at the Combine. In their shoes I would prefer a cover-capable Mack type to back up Patrick Queen. That isn’t Eichenberg. But he does compare favorably to two other names that matter to me also: Elandon Roberts athletically (7.88 RAS with great agility for Eichenberg versus 7.39 with great explosion for Roberts) and Tyler Matakevich for overall tackling, attitude, and special teams potential. I expect Eichenberg to start his NFL career as an instant special teams ace, which has never been more important because of the new kick-return rules. That is worth a Round 6 pick. And I believe that Eichenberg has the very real potential to be Elandon Roberts 2.0 as a player, which would be a bargain.
Could he be there in Round 6? Roberts himself got picked in Round 6 at No. 214 overall, and I just ran a half dozen simulations where was “yes” five out of six times. I suspect the Steelers grade him even higher, and might even pull the trigger in Round 4, but if I was the Steelers GM you could rest assured that the stars will align and give us the later round steal.
ILB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio St. (RS Senior). 6-2, 233 lbs. with 31⅝” arms and 9¼” hands. 22, turns 23 in November. [Mtg. at Combine] Two-year team captain. Brother Liam is a backup T/G for the Dolphins. Tommy Eichenberg is a well-tested, extremely smart, multiyear starter whose game might be compared to Elandon Roberts in the sense that he excels as a downhill thumper and holds up in coverage duties because his football IQ helps him to read the play earlier than many others. He isn’t a bad athlete by any means, just someone who is clearly better suited for run support. Indeed, he has elite agility scores and overall 7.81 RAS. Josh Carney’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 5 grade of 6.7) sees a very high floor as a “two-down linebacker [and] great leader” but agrees that “he will likely have to come off the field in sub-package football due to his struggles in coverage.” Ditto for Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile. I find myself wondering about the parallels to Tyler Matakevich in a year when special teams value has suddenly gone up a notch. |
PICK 6:19 (# 195 overall) – [WR/TEAMS Ainias Smith] ILB/SAF/TEAMS Jaylon Carlies, Missouri
Ainias Smith was an early draft crush of mine, and he remains one even though I no longer hope that he could be the WR2 in an Arthur Smith offense. I really, really want to include him here… but I just can’t imagine my luck holding this strong for this long. He’s the sacrifice I make for the sake of verity, in favor of a fallback choice who will add some equally useful pieces of the long term puzzle.
How I wish we could merge Tommy Eichenberg and Jaylon Carlies into a single body! The result would be a Round 1 prospect. Eichenberg excels on the Buck side of the ILB spectrum as a powerful run stuffer who can survive in other roles through tremendous leadership skills and a fantastic football IQ. He’s a good but limited athlete, with elite agility and the knack of playing faster than he measures. The scouting profiles for Jaylon Carlies read like a mirror image for everything but their shared ferocity and skill at tackling. Carlies is more of an oversized box safety with great straight-line athleticism, especially when it comes to speed and explosiveness. The football IQ is good enough but nothing like Eichenberg’s, and he’s never been put in a position where he needed to work those mental muscles. Much more Miles Killebrew than Elandon Roberts.
Some will nitpick that both young men overlap as nominal “ILBs,” but that’s only true at a superficial level on the position chart. They perform roles in a defense – next door neighbors rather than family members – and neither can do what the other one does. With one exception: both will make Danny Smith a very happy man.
SAF/Mack ILB Jaylon Carlies, Missouri (Senior). 6-2⅜, 231 lbs. with long 34⅛” arms and 9⅝” hands. 22, turns 23 in September. A run-stuffing box safety in college, Carlies measured in as a full-sized Mack ILB at the Shrine Bowl even though he continued to play as a DB. A position change would do him good since the scouting reports all say he tackles at just about an ILB level, but covers poorly for a safety (which would be pretty well for most ILBs). The NFL Draft Buzz profile is pretty typical: “Has the good, low backpedal and closing speed to be effective in off coverage. He’s excellent against the run, willing to get physical and fight off blocks on the perimeter, and a sure, wrap-up tackler who plays with a linebacker’s mentality.” Carlies has very good hands regardless of position and measures as an elite athlete with a 9.50 RAS as a safety, and 9.34 if run as an ILB. If that sounds too good for this grade, see Lance Zierlein’s NFL.com scouting profile, which says he is far too linear as a mover to survive as a safety and far too raw if viewed as a true ILB prospect. “He’s very tight in his hips and plays with a debilitating lack of change of direction that causes problems for him in coverage and as an open-field tackler.” |
CONCLUSION
I didn’t intend to follow my list of Pittsburgh’s needs this closely, but only a fool would fight the current when talent and desire match up. Graham Barton has the best chance I’ve seen in years to be Pittsburgh’s next great center, and he arrives in a draft where the team has a season-killing hole at the position and no realistic chance of finding a veteran off the street. I yearn for dancing bears every bit as much as the next guy, but even this year’s impressive tackle crop doesn’t overcome value like that.
In Round 2 I ended up with a set of equally perfect options at WR. Take your pick between Ricky Pearsall, Roman Wilson, and Ja’Lynn Polk, because you can’t go wrong with any of the three. I ended up with the first only because of a literal roll of the dice.
Round 3 gave me a choice between a much coveted slot corner and three equally coveted defensive linemen. I went for the trenches with Pick 3.A, figuring I could land the corner later. Which I did with 3.B: an incredible value who will also contribute as depth on the outside.
The Round 4 pick is an offensive tackle I’m pretty confident about because I understand his problems, and can see a clear path for him to build a long NFL career. And then I finished with two all but sure special teams demons in Round 6: one who has easy parallels to Elandon Roberts, including the potential to grow into a starting Buck ILB, and another who triggers eerie reminders of the team’s current special teams captain.
Every pick also comes with deep experience from an established program; has made his bones against future NFL talent; has both a high floor and a high ceiling compared to his spot in the draft; and has a strong chance of making the roster in one capacity or another. And none are so outrageously ambitious that it pushes my B.S. button. I will admit to some regret about missing my longtime draft crush on the Day 3 Aggie WR, but even wish-fulfillment mocks have their limits. This will do. Color me happy.
1:20 (#20 overall) – C/G/T Graham Barton, Duke
2:19 (# 51 overall) – WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida
3:20 (# 84 overall) – DT/DE Maason Smith, LSU
3:35 (# 98 overall) – SLOT CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
4:19 (# 119 overall) – T/G/TEAMS Caedan Wallace, Penn State
6:02 (# 178 overall) – ILB/TEAMS Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
6:19 (# 195 overall) – SAF/ILB/TEAMS Jaylon Carlies, Missouri
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