Back with another series you guys seem to enjoy. Evaluating what I got right and got wrong with my Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 NFL Draft predictions. As usual, there was a mixture of both. I’ll base this largely off my final mock draft and my “seven things I think” post I wrote shortly before Round 1.
What I Got Right
O-LINE IN FIRST ROUND, CORNERBACK BACKUP PLAN
At least, this was sort of right, even if “they’re drafting o-line in the first round” was kinda obvious. The real debate was center versus offensive tackle, which I did get wrong, choosing Duke center Graham Barton in my final mock draft. It would’ve been interesting to see what the Steelers would’ve done had Troy Fautanu, their No. 7 player, not been available at their pick. Would they have taken Barton, Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton, or would they have gone corner or even traded down? We know they had offers.
While o-line was sort of a layup, not everyone in the national media predicted it. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager seemed convinced they would take a wide receiver, chiefly LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. Schrager’s mock draft was the most accurate of any insider this season, but he was off the mark on Pittsburgh’s pick.
INSIDE LINEBACKER IN MIDDLE ROUNDS
This one I’ll take a hearty victory lap on. Since March 30, I’ve been talking about this team drafting an inside linebacker even after signing Patrick Queen to a large contract. By following ILBs Coach Aaron Curry and correlating his three trips to the team’s high draft rate, it was clear they would add an inside linebacker in the middle rounds.
“History says the Steelers will use a pick on an inside linebacker. Based on the data and understanding team needs (we aren’t beholden to the numbers), a pick in the third or fourth round makes sense,” we wrote.
My final mock draft nailed the location though the wrong player. I mocked North Carolina’s Cedric Gray to them at No. 98. Instead, their pick was NC State’s Payton Wilson at that spot, a talented player who fell due to age and medical concerns.
SIMILAR, SMALL UDFA CLASS (MAYBE ONE VISITOR)
The draft fun doesn’t end even after Mr. Irrelevant’s name is known. The undrafted free agent frenzy can be a fun process…for the other 31 teams. Pittsburgh never chases the top names because of its signing bonus-only philosophy for these players, not offering base salary guarantees to entice the top names.
As of this writing, they had only agreed to terms with five UDFAs, an even smaller pool than the six they had last season. And there was one pre-draft visitor on that list, West Virginia CB Beanie Bishop, who was clearly the team’s top add and should have a legitimate chance to make the 53-man roster.
In my mock, I landed one pick correctly, giving the team Iowa DL Logan Lee at No. 178 in the sixth round. I also had them taking an inside linebacker in the correct spot at No. 98.
What I Got Wrong
CENTER BACKUP PLAN…HUNTER NOURZAD
Ultimately, a moot point with the team drafting West Virginia center Zach Frazier in the second round. We had pegged Frazier as a Steelers type of guy, but I still wasn’t ultimately convinced any of the “Big Three” centers would drop all the way to No. 51. At the least, it was a gamble. Kudos to them for pulling it off, even if that probably requires a bit of good fortune.
SPECIAL TEAMS VALUE REFLECTIVE IN SOME PICKS
This one is a bit debatable because almost every draft class has some products who can help on special teams. Payton Wilson, Ryan Watts, and maybe even Logan Lee (he blocked a field goal at Iowa), but I thought there would be a more “true” special teams guy. Someone with a heavy background there like Rutgers CB Max Melton and his four career blocked punts. Or someone with a strong return background. Even someone like Cedric Gray played a lot of special teams snaps in college and would’ve fit here. They did seem to focus on “teams” in UDFA RB Daijun Edwards but with an o-line heavy draft, it was less of an emphasis.
THEY WANT A BIG/YAC RECEIVER
A miss here, at least for the draft. The team landed on Michigan’s Roman Wilson in the third round, and he certainly doesn’t qualify as a big receiver. His speed and quicks offer YAC, but I thought the team would look at more of a true outside receiver to pair opposite George Pickens. Instead, Wilson is a slot type who can play some on the outside. I don’t want to typecast him exclusively to one spot, but most of his work has come along the interior.
I’d still expect the team to find a veteran outside receiver closer to what I was looking for, and the rumor mill is hot right now, but it didn’t come via a draft pick.
HALF THE SELECTIONS WILL BE PRE-DRAFT VISITORS
In the end, I underestimated this number. A whopping five of the team’s seven selections came in for pre-draft visits, the only exceptions being Roman Wilson and Ryan Watts. Omar Khan has primarily drafted from that 30 list in his two years so keep that in mind for next year’s mock drafts.
One final note. Going through my full NFL seven-round mock, there were a couple picks I got right. Most of it, naturally, was a disaster, but I landed lucky on a handful of picks, which are always fun to check out. Some of the notable ones I got right aside from a couple at the top like Caleb Williams No. 1 and Jayden Daniels No. 2. Some of these aren’t correct on the exact pick but for team and player, I’ll take it.
WR Rome Odunze/Washington – Chicago Bears (No. 9)
OT Amarius Mims/Georgia – Cincinnati Bengals (No. 18)
WR Xavier Legette/South Carolina – Carolina Panthers (No. 33 in my mock, No. 32 in real life)
DT Michael Hall/Ohio State – Cleveland Browns (No. 85 in my mock, No. 54 in real life)
K Joshua Karty/Stanford – Los Angeles Rams (No. 196 in my mock, No. 209 in real life)
C Dylan McMahon/NC State – Philadelphia Eagles (No. 210 in my mock, No. 190 in real life)
CB Myles Harden/South Dakota – Cleveland Browns (No. 227 in my mock, No. 227 in real life)
And maybe a couple others but it’s not worth going through name by name.
