What is going to happen with San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk between now and the 2024 NFL Draft? That’s a question on the minds of Pittsburgh Steelers fans as the month of March begins to wind down, and it’s a legitimate one at that. At least on the surface, it appears as though the 49ers might be destined to trade Aiyuk at some point before the 2024 NFL Draft gets underway. That, however, certainly is far from guaranteed to happen. I recently did a deep, yet rough, dive into the 49ers’ current financial situation in an attempt to see if a trade of Aiyuk is guaranteed to happen before the draft, and I will share with you all what that uncovered.
For starters, Aiyuk seemingly wants a new contract this offseason, and because of that, there’s a chance he could hold in later this summer if he doesn’t receive one from the 49ers. The 49ers, however, don’t seemingly appear to be guaranteed to give him that new deal because of their current financial situation, as they currently have a top-heavy roster that includes several high-priced players under contract.
Moving on, many speculate that the 49ers might need to find more salary cap relief at some point between now and Week One of the 2024 regular season, and trading away Aiyuk would seem to be the perfect solution to accomplish just that.
Now, let’s look at the 49ers’ projected salary cap situation as things stand right now on this first Saturday of March Madness. According to Over the Cap, the 49ers are estimated to be $12,794,910 under the cap right now. Let me point out, however, that the amount that they list right now does include the forthcoming workout bonus placeholder charge of $907,200. Additionally, Over the Cap is not currently accounting for $153,445 in signing bonus proration that sits outside the top 51 players they have listed under contract currently. While that’s a small amount, it matters in the official Rule of 51.
I must now also point out that the 49ers’ current salary cap situation includes Arik Armstead counting as a $28,353,236 cap charge. He, however, was designated as a post-June 1 termination not long ago and has since signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. So, come June 2, the 49ers will recoup $18,039,412 in 2024 salary cap space. That’s significant in the grand scheme of things but once again, that savings must wait until June 2.
Here’s something else to consider when it comes to the 49ers’ current salary cap state. Over the Cap is still awaiting full contract breakdowns on seven recently signed players: Isaac Yiadom, Brandon Parker, Joshua Dobbs, Chase Lucas, De’Vondre Campbell, Zeke Turner, and Leonard Floyd. The deals signed by Yiadom, Parker, Dobbs, Lucas, Campbell, and Turner were all for one year so there’s a good chance they each won’t eat up much available salary cap space. Some, just the same, but probably not much overall. However, the deal that Floyd signed was for two years, and it reportedly totals out at a $20 million contract and includes $12 million guaranteed in the first year. In short, there will be an impact on the 49ers’ available salary cap space once the details of that deal and others are made known, with Floyd eating the most into it.
Now, the 49ers, like all NFL teams, still have forthcoming offseason costs that they must be able to accommodate before Week One of the 2024 regular season. Probably no less than $15 million on the conservative side. Maybe as much as $19 million. It’s really hard to nail down that amount, however, as I don’t know for sure how much salary cap space they normally like to have free come the start of an NFL season. Those forthcoming salary cap costs include them needing to add a 52nd and 53rd player, their draft class signing offset amount, a full practice squad, and whatever free room amount they wish to enter the season with.
Now, the 49ers have already restructured the contracts of several players this offseason, and that list includes George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, Fred Warner, and Javon Hargrave. While the 49ers still have the ability to restructure the contracts of Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, Charvarius Ward, and Christian McCaffrey, the odds are very strong they won’t, especially when you look at each of those deals individually. In short, it feels like they are finished restructuring contracts this offseason after already doing so with four players, which is quite a number, by the way.
It also appears as though the 49ers are done cutting players this offseason who would significantly move the salary cap needle. Their big cut so far this offseason was the aforementioned Armstead.
Looking at the 49ers’ salary cap situation currently, and if it were now June 2, they are roughly $31 million under the cap pending the contracts of those seven outstanding players being filed. Once again, however, their forthcoming estimated offseason costs of at least $15 million, plus whatever the sizable 2024 cap charge on Lloyd winds up being, must be accounted for.
Now, from the best I can calculate, the 49ers seem to be on pace with their current roster construction to spend somewhere around $245 million in cash in 2024, and that amount takes into account Aiyuk being on his fifth-year option, all restructures, draft class signings and ultimately the practice squad. That’s nearly 96 percent of the 2024 NFL cap total in cash. An extension for Aiyuk could result in another $10 million or so in 2024 cash being spent, and if that estimate is close, that would put the 49ers on course to spend right around 100 percent of this year’s league cap number in cash. That’s plausible math in totality and not an unthinkable outcome, and especially with such a roster makeup that includes several high-priced players.
Finally, I think it is worth noting what 49ers GM John Lynch said nearly a month ago when he was asked about the possibility of the organization signing Aiyuk to a lucrative contract extension this offseason.
“We have some challenges,” Lynch said near the end of February, according to Pro Football Talk. “We have a lot of good players, a lot of good players who we’ve rewarded. Brandon’s one that we think incredibly highly of, one of my favorite guys around our building, the way he approaches the game. He’s a competitor. He’s a warrior. He plays with such physicality, also with grace, in the way some of the positions his body can get into.
“And then he’s got a flair for making plays when [they] matter most, and he’s served us very well as a franchise. And I think we’ve got a nice track record of extending the players that are important to us, and Brandon’s the guy we want to keep around for a long time.”
How much of what Lynch said was just GM speak? It’s obviously hard to say. That said, I do believe that the 49ers would like to sign Aiyuk to an extension this offseason if at all possible.
In closing, the 49ers could conceivably sign Aiyuk to a fair yet lucrative contract extension this offseason. I do, however, think that the 49ers would likely want to get such an extension done before the 2024 NFL Draft gets underway. Even if they are unable to do so, it’s not out of the question that they get a deal done with him before training camp gets underway.
After this deep dive into Aiyuk and the 49ers, my conclusion is that the 49ers do indeed seem to be in a financial state where they could sign Aiyuk to a contract extension this offseason. However, this does not mean it’s guaranteed to happen, and thus, the possibility that he gets traded before the 2024 NFL Draft remains in place. All told, Aiyuk’s contract demands might play the biggest role in whether he remains a member of the 49ers this offseason.
Based on what the Kansas City Chiefs received as compensation from the Tennessee Titans in the trading away of CB L’Jarius Sneed on Friday night, that might not bode well for what the 49ers could ultimately get in trading away Aiyuk before the 2024 NFL Draft. I’m sure that Lynch would much rather sign Aiyuk long-term rather than give him away to a team such as the Steelers for pennies on the dollar. We’ll see how it all plays out.
