Tonight is the 2023 NFL Honors, the league’s annual award show. MVP is the biggest award on the docket and while there’s no Pittsburgh Steeler up for that hardware, there are three who could take home trophies tonight. DL Cam Heyward is the Steelers’ nominee for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, CB Joey Porter Jr. a finalist for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and OLB T.J. Watt is a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.
Watt’s candidacy is the most debated. On paper, he has the best stats of the five finalists and should be considered the favorite. But based off All-Pro voting and known ballots, there’s a strong belief that Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett will come out on top.
We’ll know the final results by the end of tonight. Until then, here’s my prediction of how the Defensive Player of the Year voting will go. We’ll see how close I am to the actual results.
2023 DPOY Voting Prediction
1. DE Myles Garrett – 197 points (30 first-place votes)
2. EDGE T.J. Watt – 143 points (15 first-place votes)
3. LB Micah Parsons – 78 points (4 first-place votes)
4. DE Maxx Crosby – 26 points (1 first-place vote)
5. CB DaRon Bland – 6 points (Zero first-place votes)
I have Garrett winning the award not in a runaway but in convincing fashion. Starting last year, there’s now first, second, and third place votes on each ballot. Here’s my podium prediction.
Garrett: 30 first-place votes, 14 second-place votes, 5 third-place votes
Watt: 15 first-place votes, 20 second-place votes, 8 third-place votes
Parsons: 4 first-place votes, 12 second-place votes, 22 third-place votes
Crosby: 1 first-place vote, 3 second-place votes, 12 third-place votes
Bland: Zero first-place votes, one second-place vote, three third-place votes
Obviously a lot of guessing here but with some foundation. In All-Pro voting, Garrett was on 40 of the 50 first-team ballots. Meaning he didn’t appear on 10. That means 40 should be his ceiling considering it’s illogical to not vote a player first-team All-Pro and also select him to win Defensive Player of the Year. Watt received 32 first-place All-Pro votes and I’ll assume roughly half (many of which didn’t have Garrett first team) choose him to win DPOY. Parsons garnered 22 first-place votes and we know Peter King selected Parsons second place over Watt. Perhaps others will follow. Still, those who didn’t vote for Garrett probably went off basic box score numbers, giving Watt the edge over Parsons. Watt was more productive in every category.
Crosby picks up a handful of votes, he received five first-team selections, while Bland brings up the rear. Maybe someone gives him a second-place vote having a hard time separating the edge rushers and tipping their cap to Bland for his pick-six record.
Comparatively speaking, it’s a closer race than many other years. In 2022, Nick Bosa captured 46 of the 50 first-place votes, winning with 237 points compared to Parsons’ 101 points that earned him second place. But Bosa was also on 49 of 50 first-team All-Pro ballots and we don’t see that level of dominance here. There is the ongoing debate about Garrett’s analytics versus Watt’s top-line numbers. Garrett has gotten far more press about winning the award than Watt, and I have a feeling – right or wrong – that voters believe he’s “due” to win the award to properly reflect his defensive dominance.
Watt’s always had trouble drawing a lot of love from the voters. He lost to Aaron Donald in 2020, 27 votes to 20 (there was no point system back then) and even in 2021, his record-tying year with 22.5 sacks, he still netted only 42 first-place votes. That was less than what Bosa’s 18.5 sacks received in 2022. Yet again, I think he draws the short end of the straw. Not the outcome I’m advocating for; just the one I’m anticipating.
If I could cast a ballot, I’d go: Watt, Crosby, Garrett, Parsons, and Bland. Alas, I’m not one of the 50 voters.
For the other awards, I won’t make a prediction. I don’t think Porter wins DROY, though the field is relatively wide open, and he should receive a couple of votes. Maybe a fourth-place finish there. And for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, fingers crossed it’s Heyward. But who knows what that result will be.
Share your prediction below. We’ll post the actual tallies and winners tonight. The ceremony kicks off at 9 PM/EST.
