2024 NFL Draft

Pavelle: 2024 Mock Draft 3.0

By Scott Pavelle

Posted on February 24, 2024 at 6:00 am

This will be my last mock until we’ve seen both the NFL Scouting Combine and the first wave of free agency, which means it’s also the last time I will need to waste space on…

Assumptions About Free Agency

OT – Chuks Okorafor will be replaced by an experienced swing tackle such as the Raiders’ Jermaine Eluemunor.
CTR – Mason Cole has a year left on his contract, so Pittsburgh will honor it. (Ed. Note. This was written before Cole’s release. We will now assume the team signs a veteran free agent of some sort)
QB – Mason Rudolph will be replaced by a comparable journeyman such as Ryan Tannehill. Mitch Trubisky will not be replaced, leaving only two QBs on the roster.
CB – Levi Wallace and Chandon Sullivan either remain, or get replaced by comparable journeymen; i.e., there is no actual hole on the roster for either a boundary or a slot corner, but there’s plenty of want. The Steelers and Patrick Peterson fail to rework his deal so he departs. Angst, consternation, and gloating ensue in equal measures.
SAF – Damontae Kazee remains, Keeanu Neal departs, and Terrell Edmunds comes back on a three-year, $5.4 million contract, which is slightly above the veteran minimum. His Philadelphia deal last year was for a single year at $2 million, and he barely played.
NT – Armon Watts or Montravius Adams will remain but not both.
ILB – Cole Holcomb gets a thumbs up from Pittsburgh’s doctors, and is inked in as the starter. Kwon Alexander departs.
PUNTER – The Steelers make their equivalent of a splash, and sign a free agent punter before the draft. It would have been Matt Araiza if the Chiefs hadn’t got there first.

One final rule: This is a no-trades draft.

Introduction

I more or less like that free agency scenario. I hate the draft you are about to see.

I don’t write these mocks as either predictions or wish lists. I do a series of them to illustrate possible scenarios, and to highlight particular players I find intriguing. Sometimes that leads to results I would not enjoy. Case in point…

Pick 1:20 – CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

I recently wrote about my approach to Round 1 picks, and ended with the following list of realistic Pittsburgh targets. Those who are unavailable in this mock have been crossed off:

QB Drake Maye	OT Joe Alt	C/G/T Graham Barton	CB Terrion Arnold
QB Caleb Williams	OT Olu Fashanu	C/G Jackson Powers-Johnson	CB Nate Wiggins
QB Jayden Daniels	T/G Taliese Fuaga		CB Quinyon Mitchell
J.J. McCarthy	OT Tyler Guyton		CB Cooper DeJean
QB Bo Nix	OT J.C. Latham		CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
QB Michael Penix Jr.	OT Amarius Mims

Mock 1.0 chose C Graham Barton at 1:20, with OT Amarius Mims getting picked in Mock 2.0. That’s why both are crossed off here. In Mock 3.0 we explore a scenario where the Steelers choose to pick an exceptional corner.

Anyone who objects to Quinyon Mitchell on value grounds had better go back and do some research. The young man is a tremendous prospect who, with Joey Porter Jr. on the other side, would give Pittsburgh a more dominant pair of outside CBs than I have ever known in my life as a Pittsburgh fan. Those two, with Minkah Fitzpatrick roaming as a single-high safety, would allow the Steelers to use a run-stuffing Buck ILB or pack the box with an extra box safety on almost every play. Better pass defense, better run defense, and an injection of youth to help ensure the future.

Yes, one can legitimately worry about the opportunity cost. “But I’d like a center or tackle or QB even more!” Fair enough. That’s why we do multiple mocks.

There’s also a legitimate argument based on playing the board. “But there are lots of good CBs to be found in Rounds 2-4, while the OL options are more top heavy!” True enough, but (a) those later options are “later” for a reason, and (b) let’s see how that actually works out as the mock moves forward.

CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (RS Junior). 6-0⅜, 195 pounds with 31⅛-inch arms and 8¼-inch hands. Turns __ in _. Dominated vs. moderate competition in a scheme involving mostly zone and off coverage. His stock shot up after a spectacular Senior Bowl, but one has to apply at least a little salt because the same was true of now-Steelers CB Darius Rush (projected as a Round 2 talent, picked in Round 5). Great ball skills, good route recognition, and a quick trigger put him in the action more often than might be expected. Short-burst recovery speed on double moves hasn’t been tested because press was so uncommon, but his long speed is top notch. Has the aggressiveness and COD to play in the slot. Excellent special teams gunner as well, which lends optimism to the idea that he can become an adequate tackler in run support. Came in at No. 19 on Daniel Jeremiah’s initial top 50: “Mitchell is a feisty competitor with outstanding speed and a history of ball production.” A spectacular showing at the Senior Bowl vaulted his stock upward. As Jonathan Heitritter wrote, “Mitchell was the best and most consistent DB in Mobile on both teams… sticky in coverage in nearly every situation he faced… Mitchell has likely cemented himself as a top-25 selection and possibly the top CB in the entire class.” Jon’s gif-supported Depot scouting report (Round 1, 8.6 grade) ends with a comp to Darius Slay based on his all-around game, size, and sticky coverage ability.

Pick 2:19 (#51 overall) – OT Troy Fautanu, Washington.

Every human being on the planet understands that Pittsburgh is going to pick a center in Round 2 after a defensive pick in Round 1. But who? Daniel Jeremiah’s recent mock draft sent Jackson Powers-Johnson to the L.A. Rams at 1:19, Zach Frazier to the Lions at 1:29, and Graham Barton to the Niners at 1:31. The man’s a prophet. The same thing just happened in Pavelle Mock Land. That leaves only Sedrick Van Pran-Granger to target. And he’s on the board waiting as pick 48, 49, and 50 go by…

Then this happens. OTs Patrick Paul, Kingsley Suamataia, and Jordan Morgan jump the line, leaving the young man Jeremiah just sent to the Steelers at 1:20 available to them at 2:51. SVPG is a fine prospect, but Fautanu is a better one. I 100% believe in picking players rather than positions, so this kind of steal just can’t be ignored.

T/G Troy Fautanu, Washington (RS Senior). 6-4, 317 pounds. with 35”(?) arms and ___” hands. Turns 24 in October. A solid OT prospect who projects as a very good guard with tackle flexibility. His No. 1 asset is fundamental athleticism so good that he’s also played DL and even as a volleyball player. Excellent length that he knows how to use would be a special asset if he moves inside and can learn to keep his center of gravity down. Brandon Thorn’s late November scouting profile describes him as a “dynamic run-blocker… with very good athletic ability, quickness, power and length, [who is] a weapon on the move,… [and] extremely agile and quick in pass protection.” Ross McCorkle’s gif supported Depot scouting report (fringe 1st, grade of 8.5) also admires everything to do with Fautanu’s native athleticism and movement skills and argues that he could succeed at tackle if his arms turn out to be long enough to compensate for merely human height. The movement skills would certainly suit Arthur Smith’s preference for outside zone runs. Daniel Jeremiah sees a very good OT prospect, having him at No. 16 overall in his initial top 50.

Pick 3:20 (#84 overall) – Mack ILB James Williams, Miami

First things first. Sedrick Van Pran-Granger got drafted by the Jaguars, Eagles, Bears, Chargers, or Dolphins before our pick at 3:84. Grrrr. That leaves several options in play:

For C – The prospect must project as a stronger player than the 2023 Mason Cole.
For WR – I would love to get a tough guy in the middle who could be the WR3 as a rookie and be good enough to challenge Johnson and/or Pickett if they insist on being prima donnas. Calvin Austin III isn’t as good a system fit.
For DL – They must fit the Pittsburgh specifications, which basically limits the pool to Maason Smith and Ruke Orhorhoro. They’re gone too.
For ILB – The prospect must excel in the Mack role more than the Buck.
For S – The combination of Terrell Edmunds and Damontae Kazee fills a lot of holes inside the box, but there’s still room for extra youth, a S/CB to play against quicksters in the slot, or for a deep SAF2 better than Damontae Kazee.
For CB – We got an ideal boundary corner in Round 1, but there’s still room for that CB/S type in the slot.
For QB – Four QBs were picked in Round 1, three in Round 2, and another two in the early part of Round 3. Not an option.

Here’s the board I will work from, with the already-taken prospects and prior mock selections crossed off:

C	WR	DL	EDGE	ILB	S	SLOT CB
[Crickets]	Brenden Rice	Maason Smith	Austin Booker	Payton Wilson	Calen Bullock	Renardo Green
	Malachi Corley	Ruke Orhorhoro	Adisa Isaac	Ty’Ron Hopper	Jaden Hicks	D.J. James
	Ladd McConkey	Justin Eboigbe		James Williams	Cole Bishop	Kalen King
	Ricky Pearsall				James Williams	Max Melton
	Malik Washington					Josh Newton
						Mike Sainristil

There’s a lot of wonderful names on that board, but Miami’s James Williams stands out as the only one who appears in two columns. Everyone’s talking about ILB/S Payton Wilson from NC State, and for good reason. His recovery in 2022 and 2023 from season-ending injuries in 2018, 2019, and 2021 makes for an amazing story. Overcoming to the point where he won the Chuck Bednarik Award for the nation’s best linebacker? It’s straight out of a movie script. But for my money the ILB/S out of Miami (Fla.) isn’t far off.

James Williams is a bigger version of Terrell Edmunds, playing in college at 225 pounds rather than 215. Both men had skills centered on strong safety with good ability to cover TEs and big slot WRs plus the ability to play nickelbacker. But here’s the difference: Williams weighed in at 230 for the Senior Bowl and played well when stationed as an ILB. He’s also exceptionally tall, at just under 6-5, which makes him much harder for QBs to avoid when he’s playing a midfield zone. My free agency scenario assumes that Cole Holcomb will be back at full strength but has neither a good backup nor developmental depth. Williams fills that hole perfectly. He can learn under Holcomb while playing extensive snaps in nickel and dime packages and also contributing on special teams.

Would I have picked him if a DT was available? Maason Smith’s equally high ceiling probably would have won the day, but I would prefer Williams over the safe, reliable, but more limited Orhorhoro. The two EDGE prospects would rank higher on an all-teams board, but for this team and this mock I will pass them by. It hurts to pass over the CBs and WRs too, especially Malachi Corley, but the coin flip fell on heads so Williams won that comparison too. At least for this mock.

ILB James Williams, Miami (RS Soph). 6-4⅜, 230 pounds with 33⅛” arms and 9¼” hands. Turned 21 earlier this month. In college he played at 220-225 pounds as a 50% strong safety, 50% cover-ILB and was considered an elite athlete whose only limitation is long speed from the safety point of view. By the Senior Bowl he was up to 230 pounds and spent almost all his time in Mobile as a cover-capable linebacker. That’s where he’s projected for this board. James Williams could also grow into being a really great ILB if he can build his football IQ and instincts. It’s even a reasonable thing to hope for in light of his constant, steady improvement in college. His stock falls to Round 3 because moving to ILB full time is going to add a year to that process. Whoever picks him needs to expect nothing from his rookie year except serious special teams ability and the occasional learning snaps to get his feet wet.

ALERT: There was just a major run on corners and WRs. Not a single name from the Round 3 list has fallen this far, and neither did either of my two break-glass-in-case-of-emergency centers. That leaves the board for 4:19 and 4:20 looking like this:

C	WR	DL	SAF	SLOT CB
Beaux Limmer	Josh Cephus	Jordan Jefferson	Jarius Monroe	Chau Smith-Wade
Drake Nugent	Jacob Cowing		Malik Mustapha	Johnny Dixon
	Luke McCaffrey			Jarrian Jones
	Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint			Nehemiah Pritchett
	Ainias Smith
	Jamari Thrash

Pick 4:19 (#120 overall, plus 3rd-round compensatory picks) – S Malik Mustapha, Wake Forest

I want to split these two picks between offense and defense. The defensive side is the tougher choice.

My first impulse was to grab a DT. The Steelers could really use a high-end, Round 1-2 talent who can learn his position while understudying behind Captain Cam. But is Jordan Jefferson that guy? To me he seems more like a bigger and better version of Henry Mondeaux and Isaiahh Loudermilk; a high-floor, moderate-ceiling contributor to the D-line rotation. That’s much less important, so I choose to wait for 2025 instead. An actual Round 1-2 pick then will help much more than a Round 4 talent now.

The safeties and corners offer more upside. My free agency moves left the team with superstar Minkah Fitzpatrick, the veteran Damontae Kazee (about whom I have my doubts), and a returned Terrell Edmunds, who profiles as a pure box safety with the ability to blanket TE’s in coverage. Between Edmunds, Holcomb, and Round 3’s James Williams the Steelers also have sideline-to-sideline run stuffers galore for nickel and dime sub-packages. The only remaining wants are for young talent to compete with Kazee and young talent to compete for a CB/S hybrid role.

That brings the CB options into view as well. JPJ and Round 1’s Mitchell lock down the edges, especially with potential contributions from 2023 rookies Cory Trice and Darius Rush. But who will cover the sort of super-quick slot weapons that Tom Brady used to such deadly effect? It calls for either a Polamalu type or a Mike Hilton type.

Jarius Monroe played corner for his entire college career until the coaches surprised at the Shrine Bowl with a move inside – at which point he went on to win that week’s Defensive MVP award. Malik Mustapha is a mid-draft clone of Troy Polamalu. Penn State’s Johnny Dixon is a slot corner who can add depth on the outside. And Jarrian Jones is simply one of those guys who “gets it” so well that he covered all comers in 2023 season without incurring a single penalty.

There’s not a bad pick in the bunch, so for this mock I will choose the young man who sounds like the most fun to watch on TV and can act as both a slot DB and a backup for Kazee.

DB Malik Mustapha, Wake Forest (RS Junior). 5-9⅞, 210 pounds with 30⅛-inch arms and 8⅞-inch hands. Turns __ in ___. Team captain. Tore an ACL in the 2022 bowl game and played through the rehab period for all of 2023, which means he could be better than on his most recent film. Mustapha is an extremely fun player with only a single real problem: he is three-to-five inches too short. In fact we have a handy Pittsburgh comparison you may remember: Malik Mustapha is a quarter-inch shorter than Troy Polamalu and three pounds heavier. Troy succeeded because he was an absolutely absurd, super-freak athlete with 4.33 long speed, more acceleration than a jackrabbit, and a legendary football IQ that people talk about even today. Just ask Pat McAfee! ROFL. Mustapha is a Feldman Freak athlete, but it would take a pretty amazing combine to put him even close to Troy level, and we have no way of knowing if the football IQ is more than “very good.” He played everywhere from slot corner to free safety in college but projects best for the NFL as an untitled “Defensive Back” with enough coverage skills to hold up in the slot, enough pop to hold up as a sub-package box player, and enough overall athleticism to also drop back in Cover 2 looks. I.e., the Polamalu role. A good tackler who loves the hitting part of the game, Mustapha’s greatest asset may be the infectious energy he brings to the game; a true hair-on-fire type who will require vastly more whoa than sic ‘em. There’s that similarity again. He’s also going to be an exceptional special teams player, just like… I’ve got to stop this.

Pick 4:20 (#120 overall, plus 3rd round compensatory picks)

Well, I can’t go with Ainias Smith again, because y’all got to read about him in Mock 1.0, so I’m going to target someone else who hits the same buttons: a slot-capable, savvy, self-sacrificing player who may lack elite measurables but promises to make up for that with toughness alone. This time it’s Christian McCaffrey’s baby brother. Many people project him as a Round 5 target, but I think his fit is good enough to provide excellent value here in the back of the 4th.

WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice by way of Nebraska (RS Junior). 6-1¾, 202 pounds with short 29⅞-inch arms and 9 ½-inch hands. Turns 23 in April. Team captain. Son of Ed McCaffrey, the longtime Giants WR. Christian’s little brother played quarterback from 2019-2021 then moved over to WR for 2022 and 2023 where he did pretty well. Fits the big-slot prototype with good burst, speed, RAC ability. Good hands. High football IQ, with a QB’s understanding of route concepts and the “why” behind the “what.” This 2022 Steve Helwick article on McCaffrey’s transition from QB to WR deserves a long quote: “…But one trivialized element of playing wide receiver, especially in Rice’s ‘pound the rock, control the clock’-style offense, is the ability to work as a blocker on the majority of snaps. When asked about adding this skill to his repertoire, McCaffrey’s eyes lit up as if blocking was his calling card from birth. ‘It’s a lot of fun. You get to let out some of that anger that you have,’ he said. ‘At quarterback you probably just have to put your hands in a fist and get mad, whereas at receiver, you can get into that action a bit more. It’s fun.’”

Pick 6:19 (#196 overall, plus round 3-5 compensatory picks) – C/G Andrew Raym, Oklahoma

I have Raym graded as a fifth-round talent, so this amounts to cheating on the mock out of sheer desperation. He’s not going to be Mansfield. Or Webby. Nor Dawson, Hartings, or Pouncey. But he does project as good, long career depth if he can clean up his footwork. Probably a peer of Mason Cole and better than the current depth with Ryan McCollum.

C/G Andrew Raym, Oklahoma (Senior). 6-3¾, 315 pounds with short 31⅞-inch arms and 9⅞-inch hands. Turns __ in ___. The successor to Creed Humphrey at Oklahoma, he played in every year of his college career, first as a backup guard in 2020 and then a starting center from 2021-2023. Very good hands, knee bend, and athletic potential. A very solid run blocker. Moves smoothly getting to his landmarks and out in space, but technical missteps happen often enough to be an issue. A fierce demeanor with good leadership skills, but is he nasty enough? The technique needs work, especially in pass protection, and also in his range when climbing. Raym will only benefit from time in an NFL training room. These links go to the NFL Draft Buzz profile (Round 5-6 grade), a December TDN scouting profile (Round 3 or so).

Pick 7:20 (#237 overall, plus round 3-6 compensatory picks) – QB Gavin Hardison, UTEP

My hypothetical offseason left Pittsburgh with only two QBs. The team needs three, so this time I’ll go with a high-ceiling player who might be able to fix the things that held him back during college.

QB Gavin Hardison, UTEP (RS Senior). 6-1, 215 lbs. with ___” hands. Turns 24 in May. Big-armed tough guy who can throw touch passes too. Statisticians will point to a low completion percentage (53), but was it caused by wandering mechanics or by playing behind a sieve of an offensive line that had him under constant pressure? A fine boom-or-bust prospect who deserves a Day 3 pick.

CONCLUSION

Am I happy? I suppose I should be. From a 2025 perspective, this mock should give Pittsburgh better pairs at outside corner and offensive tackle than I can ever remember; a better pair of offensive tackles than I can ever remember; a heavily reinforced midfield defense with both a promising Mack ILB to groom and a fireplug firestarter; plus a good WR3, CTR2, and QB3. It’s a nice haul.

But come on. This is me. Mansfield to Webster to Dawson to Hartings to Pouncey! I Want A Center! An Elite Center! The 2024 NFL Draft has two great prospects for that role and two awfully darned good ones, and I managed to come away with none of the four. Even cheating to find a good depth piece in Round 6 doesn’t make up for the disappointment.

So I officially hate this draft. Doesn’t this author know diddly squat about what my team needs?! Knives! Pitchforks! Torches! It’s outrageous!