For the third time in the past five seasons, Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt finished as a runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year Award, this time to Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns. More than the first two, many on the outside view this decision as a snub, with a fleet of arguments.
The award faces particular scrutiny because Garrett did not hold the edge over Watt in any statistical category. Watt recorded five more sacks, 26 more tackles, two more tackles for loss, five more passes defensed, and an interception. Both forced four fumbles, but Watt recovered a fumble for a touchdown.
Where Garrett really shined, supposedly, was Pass Rush Win Rate. This advanced statistic purports to measure the frequency with which a pass rusher defeats a block within 2.5 seconds. How anybody systematically fact-checks this is beyond me. But he also had a higher double-team rate, even though they do not play identical positions.
The big sticking point for Watt’s supporters, though, is Garrett’s lack of productivity late in the season. He had just one sack after Thanksgiving. In his final seven games, he recorded 14 tackles with six for loss. He did not produce any turnovers and registered seven quarterback hits with one pass defensed. That’s where Watt teammate Patrick Peterson can’t understand how Garrett won the award.
“If we’re talking about best defensive player, what is this guy doing to make a difference in the game?”, he said on his All Things Covered podcast with Bryant McFadden. “Towards the end of the year, you really didn’t hear about Myles Garrett no more”.
I already pointed out the statistics. One sack in the final seven games he played, including the postseason, though the playoffs don’t count for voting. Yes, he managed a respectable handful of quarterback hits. Yes, you can have a big impact as a pass rusher without actually recording sacks.
The Browns did go 4-2 in their final six regular season games with Garrett, including a 4-0 run to finish.
That includes wins over the New York Jets and Chicago Bears, mind you, both at home, and losses to the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams. Lopsided losses, giving up a combined 65 points. Indeed, the Browns gave up at least 20 points in six of their final seven games with Garrett. They held four opponents to 10 points or fewer in their first 10 games, but never fewer than 17 after.
In Watt’s final seven games, he recorded 7.5 sacks with 32 tackles, eight tackles for loss, 13 quarterback hits, two forced fumbles, and two passes defensed. The Steelers suffered a three-game losing streak but went 4-3 overall. The defense held three of those opponents to 11 points or fewer.
I can’t help but wonder who led the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate and Double Team Rate in 1986. Lawrence Taylor recorded 20.5 sacks, but how many of them came while beating a block within 2.5 seconds? Perhaps Pro Football Focus should revisit these past seasons to determine who really deserved the MVP Award in 1986.
