Are “advanced analytics” like Pass-Rush Win Rate here to stay and taking a more dominant role in evaluation?
There is one commonality throughout history when it comes to describing how most people evaluate athletic performance. They look at numbers a lot more than they look at tape. We just have a lot more numbers today, and those numbers claim to more closely measure actual performance.
The problem is a good deal of those new statistics and metrics rest on a subjective element. Pass-rush win rate is getting a ton of press right now and will continue to do so. The principal argument of Myles Garrett’s campaign for Defensive Player of the Year rested on it. In theory, it measures how often a player beats his blockers within 2.5 seconds. But how do you evaluate objectively when a defender has beaten a block? And how precisely do you measure 2.5 seconds?
There were 11,842 offensive plays during the 2023 regular season. Let’s say there are two edge rushers on each of those plays on average. Who is looking at those nearly 24,000 plays and timing out 2.5 seconds? What happens if you beat your block in 2.56 seconds and get a strip sack returned for a touchdown? You still lose your pass rush rep, I guess.
But I digress. The fundamental question of the day is whether these things are here to stay. Not only here to stay but increasingly rising in prominence. Essentially, Myles Garrett is the first analytics Defensive Player of the Year. He did not finish in the top four in any statistical category, though he did sit out the Browns’ regular-season finale.
More and more we hear voters talk about advanced analytics like this when making their decisions. We know who the voters are, too. Eight of the people on this list didn’t even put T.J. Watt in their top three votes. I would be fascinated to know who they are and who they voted for.
Frankly, the annoying thing about all this is that it takes away from the play and the players. Garrett really is one of the best defenders of his generation, easily. He does impact the game, often, more than his statistics reflect. But quantifying “advanced analytics” and trusting their consistency and objectivity is another matter. Are we already there as a football culture, and if not, will we get there? Will the pendulum eventually swing the other way?
One thing we can safely say is that people aren’t going to watch more tape to make actual decisions about who is the best. Not that watching tape isn’t also subjective. But at least it’s based on legitimate observation. We’re only going to come up with new metrics to reinforce our perceptions and convince ourselves they’re closer to reality.
The Steelers’ 2023 season has been put out of its misery, ending as so many have before in recent years: a disappointing, blowout playoff loss. The only change-up lately is when they miss the playoffs altogether. But with the Buffalo Bills stamping them out in the Wild Card Round, they have another long offseason ahead.
The biggest question hanging over the team is the quarterback question. Is Kenny Pickett the guy? Will he get another season’s reprieve without a serious challenge? How will the team address the depth chart? Do they re-sign Mason Rudolph, one of few significant unrestricted free agents?
The Steelers are swirling with more questions this offseason than usual, frankly, though the major free agent list is less substantial than usual. It’s just a matter of…what happens next? Where do they go from here? How do they find the way forward?
