In the end, the decision to push back the Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills Wild Card game isn’t much of a surprise. With a forecast looking increasingly worse with each update, the flexibility to push the game back 24 hours, and the interest in public safety, it’s almost shocking the NFL didn’t decide earlier than Saturday at noon.
From a third-party view, the decision is logical and not unprecedented. The NFL has moved games due to extreme weather before. Often, Pittsburgh’s been involved in them be it the 2016-2017 Divisional Game against Kansas City or the 2004 hurricane-impacted game against Miami, though those contests were moved to later in the day instead of the next one entirely. No one, Steelers fans, Bills fans, anyone watching, wants to run the risk of fans trapped or in danger due to the conditions. Easy as it is, I’m not going to scorch the decision to postpone kickoff. Rightly so, the focus was on overall safety.
But there is a football element to the decision, too. A cost that certainly doesn’t help the Steelers. In blizzard conditions, Pittsburgh held an advantage. Their style of ground-and-pound, finally finding their identity of tough, physical, they were prepared to run the ball 50 times if need be. It wouldn’t have been a shock to see them get there. They were gearing up to go old-school.
In fairness, and as I’ve repeated throughout the week, the Bills can play that game as well. Since Week 12, the two teams who have run the ball most are the Steelers and the Bills. In different ways, Buffalo has a QB-run component Pittsburgh certainly doesn’t, but the Bills have a big and powerful offensive line. They like to pull guards and tackles and run downhill. They live off the lake. Bad weather is what they’re used to, just like Pittsburgh.
So the advantage was narrower than perceived. But it was an advantage in the Steelers’ favor. Their best chance to win is to run the ball, keep the score down, and reduce the number of big plays. Their passing game has evolved but when it’s Mason Rudolph versus Josh Allen, Buffalo has the advantage. They just do.
Moments after the postponement was announced, the Over/Under that had been tumbling all week because of the weather jumped up, increasing from 33.5 to 38. That’s a collective total but one that favors Buffalo. Conditions for Monday still won’t be great, temperatures around 20, sustained winds about the same, but the snow won’t be nearly as significant. And the Bills even have an extra day to try to rest up key injuries like CB Rasul Doglas and LB Tyrel Dodson, both ending the week questionable. On the Steelers’ side, T.J. Watt’s already been ruled out and they don’t have any coinflip injuries to “benefit” from the extra day.
Bottom line. The better the weather, the more open this game becomes, the stronger the odds the Bills have of winning.
Pittsburgh’s script won’t change. Mike Tomlin will make it clear he doesn’t care when and how this game gets played. The NFL could move this to Tuesday at 2 AM – and don’t tempt them – and Tomlin wouldn’t waver. The Steelers can still win under the same model. But that mountain, already steep and now with less snow at the peak than expected, became a little harder to climb.
