Sunday afternoon, someone’s winning streak will continue. Someone’s won’t. And the loser won’t just see their streak end. They’ll see their season end. That’s the storyline in the AFC Wild Card game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh’s won its last three, Buffalo its last five, two teams with similar story arcs throughout the season.
Entering the weekend, the Bills have the on-paper advantage. Vegas believes in them too, Buffalo 10-point favorites. But on Wednesday’s episode of Undisputed, former NFL WR Michael Irvin said the game will be much closer than that.
“I can guarantee you guys this. I will take this bet, Skip,” Irvin told Skip Bayless and Richard Sherman. “I guarantee you you’re not beating them by 10 points…even without T.J. Watt, it’s way too many points for Buffalo.”
This will mark the fourth playoff matchup between Pittsburgh and Buffalo but the first since the 1990s. The large line is, in part, due to the Steelers missing Watt due to a knee injury suffered in Week 18. But the Steelers have stronger depth this year than they did a year ago, veteran Markus Golden and rookie Nick Herbig better options than Malik Reed and Jamir Jones in 2022, and the Steelers are getting healthier elsewhere with FS Minkah Fitzpatrick’s expected return. In fact, Irvin said he talked with Steelers TE Coach Alfredo Roberts — the pair were teammates in Dallas and at the University of Miami — who made that point.
“That’s what Alfredo said to me two days ago…’We’re picking up the guys on the back end.’ We’re telling them, ‘Let’s go in as a group on the front end.’ That’s the only way you can make up for T.J. Watt as a group,” Irvin said. “As a group, there’s no one man who can make up for him. But getting guys back on the back end.”
In addition to Fitzpatrick, the team will also get back S Damontae Kazee, his three-game suspension for his hit on Colts WR Michael Pittman now over. Irvin not only sees the Pittsburgh keeping things close; he thinks the Steelers could win.
“This is going to be the most physical game Buffalo’s had all year long,” Irvin said. “Bar none. They’re not coming in saying we’re throwing the ball. They fully understand, we are running the ball and playing defense.”
Irvin went on to make the case for why Pittsburgh could win, pointing to a healthy running game in snowy conditions that would keep QB Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense off the field. Still, a win would put the Steelers in rare territory. Since 1967, teams that are double-digit underdogs in the playoffs are 14-62, a .184 winning percentage. And since 2013, teams in Pittsburgh’s shoes are only 1-12, the lone upset coming in the 2019 season when the Tennessee Titans beat the Baltimore Ravens, 28-12, in the Divisional Round. In most other cases, the score hasn’t even been close, though the Bills were 13.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins last year and barely beat them, 34-31.
All that matters is Pittsburgh has a chance. And to Irvin and the Undisputed panel, a good shot at making history on Sunday.
