With the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2023 season in the books, it’s as good a time as any to revisit the predictions I made about the team prior to the regular season kicking off. Looking back on my record prediction post and my “10 Things I Think I Think” about the team article, we’ll see what I got right. And what I got wrong. There’s definitely a mixture of both.
What I Got Right
Steelers Record, Season Outcome
On Sept. 9, days before the year began, I predicted Pittsburgh would finish the year 10-7, grab a Wild Card spot, and get bounced in the first round. Here’s part of what I wrote:
“I have Pittsburgh back in the playoffs after missing out a year ago. The expectation should be for the team to at least make the postseason. Anything short of that, barring obvious long-term injuries that derail the Steelers’ year, will be viewed as a disappointment. This roster is good enough to be one of the AFC’s top seven and the Steelers undeniably have a way of winning close, one-score games where other teams struggle. They’ll get in the dance.”
“One-and-done is their recent track record. The offense has turned the ball over. The defense hasn’t played well. How those things look in a singular game, especially with such a different-looking roster, is anyone’s guess. My calculation is that it’s still a young offense and a team that doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience, especially at key positions. I think it’s one more year for this team to be able to make a serious playoff run.”
While no one could’ve predicted how the Steelers got there — I need lotto numbers from whomever guessed Mason Rudolph would guide Pittsburgh to the playoffs — but the big-picture things came true. Pittsburgh’s strength came through winning tight games, an NFL-best 9-2 in one-possession outcomes, and it got into the top seven…though just barely.
But the Wild Card Round is, again, as far as the Steelers went. Youth didn’t seem to be their issue so much as it was an offense that beat itself, defensive injuries, and simply being outclassed by a far better quarterback. Regardless of reason, this was the result, and the Steelers will wait at least another year to get over their playoff hump.
I also had Baltimore winning the division at 12-5 (the Ravens finished 13-4) and Pittsburgh finishing third in the North. I did, however, have Cincinnati in second place at 11-6 and Cleveland in last at 8-9.
Najee Harris’ Strong Season
I wrote that Harris would finish with a yards per carry in the 4s for the first time in his career and have more than one run of 20-plus yards on the year, which, frankly, wasn’t all that bold. But both came true. Harris finished the season with a 4.1 YPC, a career-high. Despite a long of only 25, he registered eight runs of 20-plus yards, tied for fourth-best in the NFL.
Harris had a slow start to his season, and he didn’t have quite the year I projected (my stat predictions had him with 1,192 yards rushing and a 4.3 average). But he was strong over the second half of the year and put the Steelers on his back for their final two regular season victories of the year.
George Pickens Won’t Be Feast/Famine
Before the year began, here’s what I wrote on Pickens.
“He runs a fuller route tree, he creates more space underneath, and he’s a bigger YAC threat. Pickens will still catch his fair share of insane downfield passes but that won’t be the only arrow in his quiver.”
Pickens proved he evolved. He went from being the NFL’s worst YAC wide receiver as a rookie to the fourth-best of any wide receiver with at least 50 catches in 2023, more than tripling his YAC per reception to over six yards. He took slants for long touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals.
In fairness, his season still felt up and down. A handful of massive games, five 100-plus yard games, with as many duds, five games held under 30 yards. And his time in the headlines was split between big games and questionable effort and comments. Consistency, he’s still working on. But on the field, there was progress as a wide receiver that can set up a really big 2024.
Steelers Will Feel Need For One More High-End DL
Here’s how I ended this point/prediction.
“All told, the team needs Heyward to stay healthy and play at his elite-level self. And as the Steelers near the point where they have to seriously think about finding his heir, that feeling of lacking top-end talent will come into focus by the end of this year.”
Heyward’s health went out the window halfway through Week One, tearing his groin against the San Francisco 49ers and missing half the season. Even when he returned, he wasn’t 100 percent, and his pass rush didn’t make much of an impact. Pittsburgh felt the pain without him and has failed to develop the likes of DeMarvin Leal while Isaiahh Loudermilk is maxed out as a rotational base end backup.
With Heyward potentially entering the final year of his career in 2024 and Larry Ogunjobi turning 30 this summer after hot-and-cold play, Pittsburgh needs to find its next stud defensive end in the draft.
Early Secondary/Defensive Growing Pains
Noting the turnover in the secondary, losing SS Terrell Edmunds, CB Cam Sutton, and NCB Arthur Maulet, it seemed likely that the Steelers’ defensive backs would have a tough time out of the gate. Largely, that proved true. Patrick Peterson looked totally washed the first month of the season before settling in the rest of the way.
And while the secondary had problems at the end of the season, that’s largely due to the rash of injuries that the Steelers suffered at safety. In that middle portion of the year when the core group was healthy and had snaps together, the defensive backs played well.
Season Comes Down To Week 18 Vs. Baltimore
Not the most outlandish prediction but true all the same. While losing to the Ravens wouldn’t have eliminated the Steelers on the spot, a win and outside help was their most likely path to getting in the postseason. It helped that Baltimore rested its starters, and this game didn’t decide the division like I thought it might, but Pittsburgh didn’t clinch a playoff spot until the final weekend. Had the Steelers lost to Baltimore, they wouldn’t have gotten the help required (a Broncos win over the Raiders) and wouldn’t have made it to the postseason.
Chris Boswell Returns To Form
I really stuck my neck out on this one. A great kicker like Boswell would have a great season. But a year ago there was at least some question about Boz after he missed eight field goals in 2022 and had the second-worst statistical season of his long NFL career.
But Boswell returned to typical form, missing only two field goals all season, one of which was a 61-yarder against Jacksonville after his 56-yard make was negated by a questionable penalty. For an offense that sputtered most of the year, Boswell was often the unit’s best weapon.
What I Got Wrong
Pittsburgh Will Return To Its 50 Sack Ways
What I wrote prior to Week One.
“With his good health, far better EDGE depth, additions of names like NT Keeanu Benton, and maybe something from blitz-capable off-ball players like ILBs Kwon Alexander and Elandon Roberts along with NCB Desmond King II, Pittsburgh’s pass rush should return to familiar form.”,
Desmond King II will be an awesome Steelers trivia question one day. While T.J. Watt led the league in sacks with 19, the Steelers fell short of their goal and restarting their 50-sack streak, which was snapped without him in 2022. They finished the year with 47, which didn’t even crack the NFL’s top 10. Disappointing all things considered, having Watt and Highsmith healthy for the entire year. Heyward’s injury obviously had an impact, and he wasn’t much of a pass rusher even when he returned.
ISAAC SEUMALO AND JAMES DANIELS WILL BE ONE OF THE NFL’S TOP GUARD DUOS
Things certainly could’ve gone worse with these two, but it would be inaccurate to call them one of the NFL’s top guard duos. Both had their struggles early in the season and Daniels has been a slow starter in both seasons with Pittsburgh. Both finished on solid notes, Seumalo battling through a shoulder injury, but there’s probably a handful of stronger guard duos in the league than these two.
Connor Heyward Throws A Touchdown Pass
Wrong. But I came close. Heyward attempted a touchdown pass in the Steelers’ Week 13 loss to the New England Patriots, but it was batted away and fell incomplete. A play they ran during their goal-line drill in training camp stayed tucked away until that Thursday night. Close but close doesn’t count here. This was a wrong prediction.
Pittsburgh’s Slot Production Will Return To Form
One I definitely got wrong. Nothing against Allen Robinson II, who did what he was brought here to do. Block, make touch catches over the middle, serve as a veteran leader. But the production after Diontae Johnson and George Pickens was slim and has been for two years. The two primary slot wideouts (and there’s mixing and matching, and injuries impacted things, I know) of Robinson and Calvin Austin III combined for 51 receptions, 460 yards (an average of nine yards per catch) and one touchdown.
Outside of his 72-yard score against the Raiders, Austin offered almost nothing in the passing game. And Robinson didn’t make an impact past 10 yards. After getting nothing from this spot in 2022 from Chase Claypool, Gunner Olszewski, and Steven Sims, the Steelers need to find a more consistently impactful player next year, as they found with JuJu Smith-Schuster in his final two seasons with the team. Especially knowing Robinson either won’t return or will come back on a severely reduced salary and clearly declining at 31 years old by the time 2024 kicks off.
Pittsburgh Won’t Suck At Screens
Mostly wrong until things got a bit better late in the season. But most of the Steelers’ running back screens were painful and they didn’t attempt virtually any tight end screens. Maybe 2024 will be the year they figure out how to run what 31 other teams can do. But probably not.
Pittsburgh Will Average 21 Points Per Game
From my statistical prediction post, which was pretty much wrecked by injuries. But my math worked out to the team scoring roughly 21 points per game, a realistic thought based on the expected jump of this young offense and play of the group in the preseason. Here’s what I wrote:
“If you’re following the touchdowns here and doing some rough field goal math, the Steelers should average right around 21 points per game this season, a nice three-point bump compared to a season ago.”
Alas, they regressed from the 18.1 per-game average they notched a year ago. Pittsburgh ended 2023 scoring 17.9 points per game and was tracking toward a 50-year low until Mason Rudolph led back-to-back 30-point games in Weeks 16 and 17.
