Before the 2023 NFL seasons kicks off Thursday between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, and the Pittsburgh Steelers season gets going Sunday afternoon against the San Francisco 49ers, I wanted to offer some stat projections and predictions for the upcoming season.
Looking back, last year’s predictions were a bit of a bumpy road, though Kenny Pickett played a lot earlier than I anticipated. Still, it’s a fun exercise to begin thinking about how the season unfolds and to look back on after the year wraps up.
QUARTERBACKS
| Player | Completions | Attempts | Yards | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett (16 starts) | 370 | 568 | 3,667 | 23 | 9 |
| Mitch Trubisky (1 start) | 37 | 62 | 414 | 1 | 1 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Obviously have Kenny Pickett missing one start. All of Mitch Trubisky’s numbers won’t come in his lone start. He’ll likely see bits and pieces throughout the season if Pickett misses time or if there’s mop-up duty (hopefully blowout wins than losses).
Pickett sees his completion percentage rise a couple points. Ditto with his yards per attempt. Touchdowns end up being pretty comfortably over 20 thanks to an improved red zone attack. And he keeps his interceptions a hair under double digits.
And yes, I’m predicting Connor Heyward throws a touchdown pass this season. Some eligible player will.
RUNNING BACK
| Player | Carries | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 275 | 1,192 | 4.3 | 8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 103 | 467 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Kenny Pickett | 70 | 354 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Anthony McFarland Jr. | 37 | 155 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 14 | 121 | 8.6 | 1 |
Good efficiency all-around. Jaylen Warren’s presence will prevent Najee Harris from putting up incredible volume numbers but his yards per carry cracks the 4s for the first time in his career. With more carries, Warren’s average regresses slightly but it’s still a strong number. Calvin Austin III gets involved in the receiver run game and busts off a big play or two.
Anthony McFarland Jr. won’t see time initially but inevitably somebody gets dinged, which will elevate him to second-string status.
RECEPTIONS
| Player | Catches | Yards | YPC | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 81 | 886 | 10.9 | 4 |
| George Pickens | 64 | 889 | 13.9 | 7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 59 | 614 | 10.4 | 3 |
| Najee Harris | 44 | 246 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 40 | 247 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson II | 32 | 284 | 8.9 | 2 |
| Calvin Austin III | 29 | 401 | 13.8 | 2 |
| Connor Heyward | 28 | 306 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Darnell Washington | 19 | 151 | 7.9 | 3 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
I know these numbers look a little lighter than you were expecting. It assumes reasonably good health. The more time players miss, the more concentrated some numbers get. And there’s a ton of weapons here to throw to. The ball will be spread around. Also, check the math, all the passing and receiving numbers add up. Receptions, yardage, touchdowns, all equal to the quarterback. Try it on your own and you’ll see the challenge it becomes unless you project Pickett to throw for 5,000 yards.
Diontae Johnson’s numbers don’t jump off the page but he has, on tape, a far better year than in 2022. And he finds the end zone four times after being shutout a year ago. Pat Freiermuth’s numbers have been steady his first two years. George Pickens takes a jump, though his average come down by a little more than one yard with him running more underneath routes. Still, he finds the end zone three more times than he did a season ago, and it’s not unreasonable to believe his numbers will be better than this projection once you factor in injuries, especially his receptions and yards.
Allen Robinson II does his work underneath while Austin gets a couple big plays downfield. Darnell Washington’s yards-per-catch is low but he’s a red zone threat.
SACKS
| Player | Sacks |
|---|---|
| TJ Watt | 20.0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 11.0 |
| Cam Heyward | 8.5 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 3.5 |
| Nick Herbig | 3.0 |
| Markus Golden | 3.0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2.5 |
| DeMarvin Leal | 2.0 |
| Desmond King II | 1.5 |
| Elandon Roberts | 1.5 |
| Kwon Alexander | 1.0 |
| Montravius Adams | 0.5 |
No sack record for T.J. Watt but 20 sacks should give him a puncher’s chance to lead the league. Small regression for Alex Highsmith with Watt’s return and I’ll be a Debbie Downer and predict Heyward falls under double digits. Healthy showings from Nick Herbig and Markus Golden while the off-ball players also get involved.
For those scoring at home, that’s 58 sacks for the defense.
INTERCEPTIONS
| Player | INTs |
|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5* |
| T.J. Watt | 3 |
| Patrick Peterson | 3* |
| Damontae Kazee | 2 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 1 |
| Cole Holcomb | 1 |
| Desmond King II | 1 |
*One Pick-Six
Watt ends the year with three picks. Patrick Peterson’s veteran savvy nets him a couple, including a pick-six, while Joey Porter Jr. grabs the first of his career. A projection of 18 total interceptions.
If you’re following the touchdowns here and doing some rough field goal math, the Steelers should average right around 21 points per game this season, a nice three-point bump compared to a season ago.
As for my record prediction, you’ll have to wait until Friday for that.
