The weather is expected to be brutal Sunday for the Wild Card Round matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium in Western New York, which could really hinder both offenses in the playoff game.
That’s good news for the Steelers and a bit of bad news for the Bills, who have leaned on an explosive offense all season under quarterback Josh Allen. For the Steelers, poor conditions play right into their hands as they like to run the football and win ugly games.
On Sunday, that should be the case.
But as usual, especially in the playoffs, it will come down to a few key matchups within the game, especially with Steelers star outside linebacker T.J. Watt out for the Wild Card Round matchup.
Let’s take a look at my four matchups to watch.
Steelers OLB Alex Highsmith vs. Bills LT Dion Dawkins
With T.J. Watt out of the lineup on the opposite side of the defense, the Steelers will lean heavily on Alex Highsmith to have a big game getting after Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. That’ll be a tall task going against Buffalo standout left tackle Dion Dawkins.
Not tackle in football is playing better than Dawkins. He has not allowed a sack since Week Eight of the season and allowed just five pressures in the last month of the season. He’s a road-grader in the run game, too. The last time the Steelers and Bills matched up though, Dawkins allowed two pressures and Pro Football Focus graded him out at a 62.6 overall, including a 76.8 in pass protection in Week Five of the 2022 season.
In the season opener in 2021, Dawkins allowed five pressures and had one of the worst-graded games of his career. In those matchups, Highsmith had two pressures each in 2021 and 2022. This season, he’s taken his game to a new level despite not seeing the sack numbers come with that improvement. On the season, Highsmith graded out as the 10th-best EDGE defender in football and put together 69 total pressures.
In poor conditions, Highsmith will have to make some plays against the run and the pass, which is especially challenging against a standout tackle in Dawkins. This is the marquee matchup of the week, at least for me.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.
Talk about a star-studded matchup. Arguably the best route runner in football in Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs against one of the most promising young cornerbacks in football in Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter Jr., in a playoff game to boot? Sign me up.
Diggs is a phenomenal talent, one who has put up some incredible numbers throughout his career, especially since joining the Bills and working with Allen. This season alone, Diggs had 107 receptions for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns and graded out at an 81.1 overall from PFF, good for 21st overall in the NFL.
He creates a ton of separation, has great rapport with Allen and is good for a handful of big plays a game. Porter will have his hands full.
Fortunately, Porter is battle-tested after squaring off against the likes of Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins since stepping into the starting lineup this season, not to mention dealing with Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in limited action prior to becoming a starter.
On the year, Porter allowed just 24 receptions on 53 targets for 352 yards and just one touchdown. He’s posted some terrific numbers in coverage overall and his confidence is high. Big test ahead for him, but he’s ready for it.
Steelers’ RBs vs. Bills’ Run Defense
The conditions are going to be brutal in Buffalo. High winds, lot of snow. That’s perfect for the Steelers, who love to muck it up and play some ugly football by running the ball and out-physicaling other teams.
On Sunday, they’ll need to lean heavily on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris has been one of the best running backs in football over the last two weeks, putting together back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his career. He’s been a load for defenses to deal with, and he gets better and better as the weather gets worse and the season gets longer.
He’s at the height of his powers and gets a chance to go against a defense that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. It helps having Jaylen Warren to call on too, keeping both running backs fresh and able to hammer away at defenses. With snow and heavy winds expected, it feels like perfect conditions for Pittsburgh.
If the Steelers can run the football and control the clock, they’ve got a real shot at pulling off the upset. There’s a belief internally that they can do that after having done it the last month of the season in playoff-like games with the season on the line. The Wild Card matchup will be no different.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Steelers Defensive Coaches
Josh Allen is one of the very best quarterbacks in football. Few are better than him. He accounted for 44 touchdowns in the regular season, including 15 rushing touchdowns. A tremendous combination of size and strength, he can make all the throws and adds a serious element to the Bills’ run game.
His problem is that he’s reckless with the football, taking unnecessary chances throughout games. That led to his NFL-leading 23 turnovers (18 interceptions, five fumbles), causing some problems for the Bills’ offense. The key for Allen and the Bills, especially in poor conditions, will be to play a smart, mature game, not take unnecessary risks and take what the defense gives them.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will try to rope him into some mistakes. They’ll play things a certain way early, trying to lure Allen into some confidence in certain looks, and then they’ll try and pull the rug out from underneath him. Ball security will be massive in this one. Allen has a tendency to turn the football over in critical spots.
The Steelers know this, so defensive coordinator Teryl Austin and the rest of the defensive coaching staff have to have some plans in place to try and fool Allen into making some crucial mistakes.
