With 2023 now in the books, I wanted to provide this seasons’ Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) data from Pro Football Reference as we head into the playoffs. ANY/A is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). Here is a visual for offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A):
Compared to the 2022 regular season rankings, there are more varied results at each end of the spectrum. The bragging rights for the best OANY this season are the 49ers, at a whopping 8.6, an entire yard above any other team, and no team eclipsing an 8.0 OANY/A in 2022. Wow.
The lowest OANY/A in 2023 was the Jets at 3.7, compared to every 2022 offense above a 4.0 OANY/A.
Similar takeaway for the worst DANY/A of 2023, an atrocious 7.7 number from Washington, compared to Arizona’s next to last 7.0, and the last rank in 2022 coming in at 7.1 (Raiders).
Three stellar defenses top the DANY/A results, including two in the division that are both playoff bound. Pittsburgh is fresh off a matchup with Baltimore, who top the DANY/A results at 4.1, followed by Cleveland’s also impressive 4.2 DANY/A.
The Browns defense was able to compensate for a lowly 4.7 OANY/A, tying for 27th, the worst mark of postseason squads.
With the playoff teams colored on the visual, we can see four teams landing comfortably above the mean: San Francisco, Baltimore, Dallas, and Buffalo.
The latter is Pittsburgh’s next challenge, with the Bills landing best in the DANY/A ranks. Their 4.8 number was fifth-best in 2023, while their also respectable 6.5 OANY/A ties for eighth and is right on the target line for historical playoff success.
Ten teams had a 6.5 OANY/A or better, with all of them making the postseason. A 5.0 DANY/A or below has also boded well historically to playing for a Lombardi, with five-of-six teams this year fitting the description. The exception was the Jets, whose aforementioned OANY/A weighed them down.
So, a 6.5 OANY/A or higher, and less than or equal to 5.0 DANY/A were the ideal marks for 2023 playoff privileges.
Two postseason teams fall into neither category, including the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their 5.6 OANY/A this season came in at 21st, below the league mean, and posted a 5.8 DANY/A landing right at NFL average and tied for 13th.
Let’s get more context of the defenses stronger season ranking, viewing DANY/A weekly:
Many things jump out, right away for me is being above the line of six or less in DANY/A (blue line) against every AFC North opponent, a huge reason for their impressive 5-1 record in the division.
These occurred in Weeks Two against Cleveland (4.0), Week Five handing Baltimore their worst OANY/A of 2023 (3.9). Week Eleven was Pittsburgh’s best 2023 DANY/A number of 2023 in the Browns rematch (2.7).
Week Twelve was the first duel against Cincinnati (5.7), then performing better in the Week Sixteen rematch (4.3), and ended with the same mark in the Week Eighteen finale (4.3) to close 2023.
Other games with ideal marks included Week Three versus Las Vegas (4.1), Week Nine facing Tennessee (4.4), the following Week against Green Bay (5.7), all resulting in wins. So, Pittsburgh went 8-1 when posting a DANY/A number less than six.
When Pittsburgh’s defense was below that mark, it was largely bad news. In those eight games, they had a 2-7 record. Included in this was the abysmal three game losing streak from Weeks 13-15, beginning stretch of six games that had four below average DANY/A results.
The two wins were against the Rams in Week Seven, close to the ideal mark at 6.3, and the outlier in the recent Seahawks win (8.2).
Of course, many things can change over the course of an NFL season, with Pittsburgh certainly falling into that category mainly due to key injuries on both sides of the ball.
Here’s a weekly OANY/A visual for more context:
Here we see the volatile results I alluded to for Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ most recent three game winning streak with QB Mason Rudolph at the helm included a fantastic 9.6 average OANY/A.
This included two stellar outings in particular, an 11.6 number against Cincinnati in Week 15, and 10.6 in Seattle, scoring 30-plus points in each. Week 15 was Pittsburgh’s best number of 2023, and ranked 18th across the league, while Week 16 was second-best for the team, and 25th in the NFL.
In the Week 18 finale, the number came in at 6.7, which was still above the ideal historical mark despite the poor weather conditions and adds context to Rudolph’s impressive play to close 2023.
Previously, QB Mitch Trubisky wasn’t cutting it, eclipsing the target 6.5 OANY/A number just once. In five games played, he averaged a 4.2 OANY/A, and each resulted in a Pittsburgh loss. Trubisky’s best mark was 8.1 in Week 13 against Arizona, coming in when QB Kenny Pickett suffered his ankle injury in his last appearance of 2023.
Pickett had an up and down season for sure. In 12 games played, he averaged a 5.5 OANY/A. Four games were above the ideal 6.5 OANY/A number: Weeks Three (9.2), Seven (7.9), Twelve (7.7), and Thirteen (7.0) enroute to a 3-1 record.
Interestingly, the following four games in terms of his best OANY/A marks were all victories: Weeks Five (6.34), Nine (6.0), Two (5.5), and Ten (5.0). As expected, the defense provided above the line performances in those outings to carry Pittsburgh to victory. When Pittsburgh posted a 5.0 OANY/A or better, they went 7-1 this season.
The other side of the coin was Pickett’s worst OANY/A outings, with four games at a 4.0 OANY/A or lower, all resulting in losses and scoring ten points or less. These were Weeks Eight (4.0), and particularly poor Weeks One (2.5), Eleven (2.5), and season-worst 1.9 in the Week Four blowout against Houston.
Today, we certainly saw the importance of the stat, and its impact on the outcome of games. Pittsburgh had a 6.5 OANY/A or better, along with a DANY/A of six or less in four games this year, going undefeated.
Very important context to the tale of three quarterbacks in 2023, and hopefully Rudolph can keep his encouraging play going, which will surely be needed in hopes of ending the playoff win drought since 2016.
To close, here’s a table of the 2023 regular season OANY/A results, with team names in green making the postseason. The entire row is colored for teams with a positive differential (OANY/A – DANY/A), a DANY/A six or below, and an OANY/A of 6.5 or better. Last, it’s sorted by differential with the goal of showing the most likely teams to win the Super Bowl:
With ANY/A being historically great at predicting success in the postseason, the teams that meet the ideal requirements as the most likely Super Bowl winners are the 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, and Bills. A second tier also meets the historical marks: Dolphins, Chiefs, and Texans.
Seeing 12 of the 14 postseason teams in the top 13 ANY/A differential ranks is another of the many ways to view the predictability and the value of the stat.
Only one Super Bowl team since 2000 has a negative ANY/A differential, which unfortunately doesn’t bode well for Pittsburgh (-0.2) and Philadelphia’s (-0.6) chances at the Lombardi historically. Would love to be wrong on that of course, but here’s to hoping for a victory against Buffalo, which would likely feature being on the right side of the ANY/A stats.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
