Unfortunately, the wheels have come off for the 7-7 Pittsburgh Steelers the last three weeks, an unexpected losing streak that has them outside the playoff-picture that they were well within not that long ago. They will be looking to right the ship Saturday against the AFC-North Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), who fell to the Steelers the first-matchup in Week 12. Let’s dive into the matchup.
Jake Browning is playing better since his first-start in Week 12, taking over following Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. In the first showdown, he went 26-of-32 (73.1-completion-rate), 227 yards, with a touchdown and interception (S Trenton Thompson).
The latter is one of many in the position room that is unavailable for Pittsburgh in Week 16, including star S Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), Damontae Kazee (suspended the rest of the year), and Keanu Neal unable to make it back from injured reserve (ribs). Linebacker is also a thin group for the Steelers, still working through passing game woes without Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander.
Here’s to hoping it can improve, with opposing offenses painfully picking Pittsburgh’s defense apart. The matchup will be a tough test, with Browning having the sixth-fastest time-to-throw in the NFL, and executing a highly efficient quick-passing game despite throwing into tight coverage often. Next-Gen-Stats measures the latter with their aggressiveness metric, and here’s a visual of that along with completion rates this season:
A picture speaks 1,000 words, with Browning sporting the best 73.6-completion rate of QBs (40-qualifiers, min. of 120-attempts), nearly three percentage points better than his peers, despite throwing into tight coverage at the second-highest rate league-wide (19.4-AGG). The only player that has thrown into tight coverage more is Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (out-ankle), but we see a stark difference in his 62.0-completion-rate (31st).
This gives great comparative-context to the impressive job Browning has done since Pittsburgh saw him last, leading his team to three-straight wins including a 5-to-2 TD/INT-ratio, and the challenge he presents. Pittsburgh has a tendency this season to play down to perceived favorable situations, and hopefully don’t underestimate Browning on Saturday.
Mason Rudolph will get the start for Pittsburgh, coming in upon the deserved late-game-benching of Mitch Trubisky against Indianapolis last week, for his only snaps of 2023 (four dropbacks). He hadn’t played since the 2021 season, and here’s to hoping Rudolph gets us in the Christmas spirit with the gift of a better Steelers passing game.
Joe Mixon is always high on the checklist for Pittsburgh to limit, doing a great job of this in Week 12 (16-yards, eight-attempts), and allowing just 25 rushing yards. This would be welcomed after the Colts bludgeoned the Steelers defense with 13-straight running plays, imposing their will in demoralizing fashion. Cincinnati is 31st in rushing yards this season, and knock on wood Pittsburgh’s run defense can get back on track.
Here are RBs time-to-the-line numbers, and rushing-yards through Week 15:
Here we see an important-facet of the Bengals ground game, with Mixon the second-fastest RB in TLOS (44-qualifiers, min. 80-attempts). He is also above league-average with 815-rush-yards (11th), accounting for the majority of Cincinnati’s yards in 2023, with the sixth-most attempts league wide (211), 3.9-YPC, and eight touchdowns (seventh).
The visual emphasizes the committee-approach Pittsburgh has enjoyed in comparison, but definitely highs-and-lows throughout the season in terms of success. Najee Harris leads the team with 723-rush-yards (19th), on 183-attempts (14th), and 4.0-YPC, with a below-average TLOS.
Jaylen Warren now has 652 rush yards (28th), on 119 attempts (eight-least among qualifiers), for the second-best 5.5-YPC, on a slightly above the mean TLOS. Last week was another game under 100-rushing yards for Pittsburgh, and hoping they eclipse this to ease the passing-game in Rudolph’s first-start.
The big news at the position is Cincinnati with be without star WR Ja’Marr Chase, who has 1,156-receiving yards this season (seventh), on 132-targets (T-ninth), and seven-touchdowns (T-seventh). They’ll be hoping that Tee Higgins can fill the void, after missing the first matchup in Week 12. He is coming off a two touchdown performance, and will be a crucial matchup for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., who will likely follow him the majority of the game. Tyler Boyd also provided a double-explosive play last game, and hopefully Pittsburgh’s pass defense can limit them sans Chase.
Let’s look at average separation and yards-after-catch for WRs in 2023:
Chase is the only player in the outlook comfortably above the mean in each, with 3.2-SEP (18th) and a healthy 5.8-YAC (14th) among 84-qualifiers (min.-40-attempts), re-emphasizing how big him being out is. Boyd is next in SEP (3.1, 23rd), and is just above-average with 4.5-YAC, but certainly benefits from the attention Chase gets when healthy. Secondary receivers tend to go-off against Pittsburgh though, and here’s to hoping he isn’t the newest example postgame.
Higgins is below the mean in each, with 3.9-YAC and a particularly low 2.3-SEP (11th-least). Similarly, Pittsburgh WR George Pickens lands a rank lower in SEP, but stronger 5.1-YAC that ranks 25th. The latter has been falling after a stellar start to 2023, when he was atop the YAC ranks. Really hoping he and the Steelers can have a great YAC-game, needing to see better and more consistent scheming-things-open in hopes of victory IMO.
The last point would be great to see with Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth, who has been limited to stop and out routes largely, in an underwhelming season overall. Encouragingly, his best game of 2023 by far came against Cincinnati in Week 12, with a whopping 11-targets (39 total this season) and 120-yards (only 100-yard game), accounting for nearly 50-percent of his 243-receiving yards in 2023. Here’s to hoping history repeats itself, and we here plenty of “MUTH!” chants on Saturday.
Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled against the position the last three games, and while the Bengals didn’t wow from a yardage-perspective (38), the Steelers yielded a touchdown to Drew Sample. They have three TEs with 18 targets or more, including Tanner Hudson (38), Irv Smith Jr. (26), and Sample (18).
How they employ the group will certainly be a challenge, and to highlight this, here are wide-out alignment rates along with yards-per-route-run to gain context for the matchup:
Right away we see the Bengals align their TEs WIDE, with Hudson and Smith Jr. each above 20-percent, seventh and 12th-most league-wide. We also see all three have made it to the end zone, Hudson most recently in Week 14, and also has one of the best-balances of YPRR (fourth) largely from WIDE-alignment. Not what you want to hear with Pittsburgh’s injuries at linebacker and safety, and recent struggles against the position.
The rest of the matchup TEs are below average in YPRR among qualifiers (60, min. of 15-targets), and Pittsburgh’s TEs well below the mean in WIDE, discouragingly. They each land around seven-percent, and Connor Heyward actually has the higher 7.1-rate (53rd). Freiermuth face-palmingly has just a 6.9-WIDE, tying for sixth-least. Thought that would be way higher before the season, and could be an aid to the struggling-pass-game if that increases to close the year.
Here are OL PFF-grades:
Neither group have stellar-grades, with none above-70 in the outlook.
Cincinnati’s best balanced grades come on the interior: from C Ted Karras (68.9-PBLK,65.6-RBLK) and RG Alex Cappa (67.1-RBLK,62.5-PBLK). LG Cordell Volson has an outlook-high RBLK (67.7), but by far their worst PBLK grade (42.8). He has seemingly played better the last four games, starting with the Steelers Week 12 matchup with no pressures or sacks. Pittsburgh’s DL really needs to step-up with the back-end ailing, one of the biggest keys to hopeful victory IMO.
LT Orlando Brown (65.3-PBLK,55.8-RBLK) and RT Jonah Williams (62.9-PBLK,59.2-RBLK) fare better in PBLK-grades, with the two-lowest RBLK grades in the matchup. Here’s to hoping that’s the case, and the Steelers EDGE rushers can be a big factor in keeping Mixon and the run game bottled up like the first-go-round.
Pittsburgh’s OL will hopefully be able to trend back to some encouraging player earlier in the year, following a particularly poor showing against Indianapolis as pass-blockers. Here’s how the starting OL has fared through Week 15, listed by run block grades:
LG Isaac Seumalo (66.4-RBLK,64-PBLK)
C Mason Cole (65.9-RBLK,39.9-PBLK)
RT Broderick Jones (62.2-RBLK,53.7-PBLK)
RG James Daniels (61.3-RBLK,60.5-PBLK)
LT Dan Moore (59.2-RBLK,37.6-PBLK)
Seumalo also has the best PBLK grade, and the others falling after the putrid performance. Hopefully they get back on track, and the tackles really need to step up against their quality EDGE rushers.
Defense. There are several important factors, but hopefully it boils down to something as simple as pass and rush yards allowed:
Both teams are below-average in each, with Pittsburgh much closer to the league mean in both. They tie for 19th this season with 6.2-NPY/A, while their 4.3-RY/A ties for a slightly better 18th. The Bengals have been rough in these terms, allowing 7.0-NPY/A (31st), and 4.7-RY/A (T-30th). Here’s to hoping that holds true, and the Steelers offense can take care of the football, with limiting turnovers a huge key en route to hopeful victory.
Opponent-Scouting-Reports: Offense Defense
Injury-Reports: Steelers Bengals
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