Brutal. Third consecutive loss (30-13), with the offense inexcusably bad once again, and it’s devastatingly spiraling out of control, unfortunately. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted-passes at the line-of-scrimmage that affect the intended pass-location. This week, no passes were removed.
QB Mitch Trubisky’s performance warranted benching, late in the game and moving forward. He went 16-of-23 (69.6-percent), a good-rate but largely short-area-targets for just 169 yards, and a passing and fourth-and-one sneak-touchdown (overturned-fumble).
The bad far outweighed the above though. Inaccurate and volatile (68.9-passer-rating), most egregiously on his two-interceptions. Third-down was a struggle yet again (4-of-12), with three of the conversions coming in the first half, prior to things completely derailing.
Plenty of blame to go around, including eight-team penalties, with five of them on offense. Very poor showing from the offensive-line as well, allowing four-sacks (three on Trubisky) and a whopping 20-pressures per PFF. As they say, it all starts up front, and they were a huge part of the loss.
QB Mason Rudolph came on with 2:08 left in the game, going 2-of-3 for three-yards, sacked once, and a 70.1-rating. Screen for a loss of three, short-out-route, rushed a third-and-seven comeback with pressure out-of-bounds, and was sacked on fourth-and-seven (T Dan Moore).
Rudolph is expected to start next week, while coach Mike Tomlin didn’t rule out QB1 Kenny Pickett possibly returning from injury (ankle) for the Week 16 AFC-North Bengals matchup.
Let’s examine the 26 charted-passes further, with number-of-throws at each pass-distance for Week 15:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 34.6-percent. Back to a normal-rate after ranging in the 40’s-50-percent the prior two games. On the second-drive, Trubisky found WR Allen Robinson II on the stop route, churning for some YAC and an eight-yard-gain. The next pass was a third-and-three conversion, a stop-route to TE Pat Freiermuth over-the-middle for five-yards.
Another encouraging example was the lone-passing-touchdown, capitalizing off the Connor Heyward punt-block in the red-zone to WR Diontae Johnson, an out route from the slot, getting open off a nice rub-concept for the early 13-0-lead.
Before halftime, Trubisky hit Robinson on a wide open crosser, but then threw terribly-behind Freiermuth over-the-middle on a big third-and-three-fail followed by Indianapolis taking a 14-13 lead. After several incompletions, a dump-off to RB Jaylen Warren with 13-seconds left took them into halftime.
Then the detrimental fumble/turnover to open the second half led to a single-play red-zone touchdown by the Colts, with the deficit now at eight. Then a three-and-out-drive, starting with another stop to Freiermuth for five-yards, but a third-and-five sack (T’s Broderick Jones, Moore), excruciating coming out of the locker-room.
Key-stretch mid-fourth quarter: Jones allowed a sack, Freiermuth false-starts on third-and-12, and Warren picks up seven on a third-and-17 dump-off. They would convert on fourth-down but speaks volumes to how painful this team’s been to watch. Last was an out-route from Rudolph to Freiermuth with the game well at hand.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 23.1-percent. An encouraging play in the first quarter was to WR George Pickens, getting open on a short-in-route, stutter-stepping for healthy YAC and a chain-moving 15-yards. The other past five-yards was in the fourth quarter, a Robinson out-route for six-yards.
#3. 15-20 air-yards: 19.2-percent. On third-and-six in the first-quarter, Pickens ran an intermediate-in-route away from the bracket/double-team, with Trubisky finding him from a clean-pocket for an encouraging 15-yard-chunk to the red-zone (led to Trubisky’s sneak-TD). Two nice Pickens-catches on that drive.
Two-minutes before halftime, backed up at their own goal-line, Trubisky made a good-throw despite Moore getting pushed back into him, finding Johnson on the intermediate-out-route with separation for an 18-yard third-and-four-conversion.
A third-quarter under-center play-action, Trubisky targets Pickens on the intermediate-stop-route, going down to make the 17-yard-catch on the low pass despite good protection. Following a crucial third-and-four holding-penalty (Moore), it’s a go-ball thrown way out-of-bounds to Pickens on third-and-14 fail.
Then the nail in the coffin, an extreme overthrow to Pickens that sailed right to the DB for his second interception. This was right after a nice fourth-and-ten-conversion, painfully volatile.
T-fourth. Behind-the-Line: 15.4-percent. Extremely bad and frustrating once again. On the opening-three-and-out-drive (no-gain-run, Moore-sack) it’s third-and-14. Let’s call one of our least successful plays, a screen, with G James Daniels missing his block allowing the four-yard-tackle. Ugh.
Mid-first quarter, let’s add play-action that’s not working, along with a fake-reverse, with this Warren-screen undercut and broken-up, another near-pick that was unfortunately reminiscent to last-game.
In the fourth-quarter, Trubisky checks it down to Warren, taking the wide open target for nice YAC/churn for 11-yards. Then back to frustration, Rudolph’s first pass down 14 with just over two-minutes in the game, of course it’s a screen, blown up quickly for a loss-of-three. Good thing I already don’t have hair.
T-fourth. 10-15 air-yards: 15.4-percent. Just before halftime, Johnson ran an intermediate settle in zone, but Trubisky threw low/short of him (Moore pressure). Encouraging was the fourth-and-ten fourth quarter-conversion, with Trubisky threading it in on Johnson’s intermediate out route despite tight-coverage. Rudolph then faced a late-game third-and-seven, rushed on the throw with collective pressure, with the pass sailing out-of-bounds to Johnson to end the game with another three-and-out-fail.
#6. Explosive: 11.5-percent. Three attempts here. Following a Jones negated sack (Colts-penalty) and C Mason Cole holding-penalty, Trubisky play-actions and severely underthrows Pickens (Moore QB hit), losing the contested catch situation to boot. Just before half, this one’s overthrown to Pickens, with pressure again (Jones doesn’t pick up twist), and the DB almost got his hands on it as well. Sickening.
Then Pittsburgh faced third-and-19 (Heyward hold, Daniels hold, second-and-21 two-yard-run). Trubisky was able to dial up the only second-half third-down-conversion and longest play of the game, stepping up in the pocket (Jones beat on twist again) and targeting Johnson who found a soft-spot against zone for 25-yards. This was the only explosive air-yard-completion of the game, though.
Here are the dots of completions-and-incompletions for the game:
As just discussed, only one explosive-air-yard completion in the rough-outing. Trubisky was just 1-of-4 between-the-numbers at 15 air-yards or more. Do like the frequency, but the three incompletions included both interceptions, an overthrow the DB had a better chance on, and the completion was the in-route from Pickens away from the bracket-coverage for a first-quarter third-and-six-conversion. Of his seven-incompletions, six were on/between-the-numbers, including the two-interceptions, decision-making issues, and the vast majority inaccurate.
We also see Rudolph’s three attempts, and it will be interesting to see if he is able to improve the Steelers-passing-game if he indeed gets the Week 16 start.
Now for the heat-maps, with Trubisky’s charted-passes for Week 15 (excluding Rudolph’s small-sample), then completions-only:
Huge drop-off on the completions-only view as expected, particularly over the middle and to the left. Just five completions past ten-yards (21.7-percent), an excruciating number considering the scoreboard, and will hopefully be better sooner-than-later for health’s-sake. Rough.
Now let’s look at all 406 charted-throws this season, with frequencies-by-distance and previous-averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 35.5-percent. Previously 35.5-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 23.6-percent. Previously 23.7-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.0-percent. Previously 18.2-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 12.3-percent. Previously 12.1-percent.
#5. Explosive: Season 11.8-percent. Previously 11.8-percent.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: Season 11.6-percent. Previously 11.1-percent.
No rank changes again. The biggest riser was 15-20 air-yards by half a percentage-point, nearing explosives at No. 5. Only three explosive air-yard-attempts in the game, two in the first half prior to trailing, understandable given the putrid results but simply won’t get it done in today’s NFL unless you’re perfect on defense and special teams. With recent results and injuries, it’s been a disastrous recipe that is difficult to picture ending anytime soon. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Here are dots for Pickett/Trubisky charted-throws of 2023, along with completion-rates by distance:
PICKETT:
Behind-the-line: Season 51/58 (87.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 75/99 (75.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 52/75 (69.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent).
Explosive: Season 12/33 (36.4-percent).
TRUBISKY:
Behind-the-line: Season 12/14 (85.7-percent). Previously 10/11 (90.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 34/44 (77.3-percent). Previously 27/36 (75-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 15/20 (75-percent). Previously 11/15 (73.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 4-10 (40-percent). Previously 2/7 (28.6-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 5/13 (38.5-percent). Previously 2/8 (25-percent).
Explosive: Season 4/15 (26.7-percent). Previously 3/12 (25-percent).
The completion rates don’t tell the full story, with each of Trubisky’s percentages rising. Pickett has better success past ten yards, and considering he hasn’t been stellar himself; we get specific context to Trubisky’s struggles on more aggressive throws that likely ended his 2023 campaign.
To close, here are heat-maps for charted-passes through Week 15, then completions-only:
With Trubisky’s smaller sample size, his heat-maps are also generously wide, emphasizing once again the unacceptably poor results he was getting past-ten-yards. Here’s to hoping there’s better days ahead, starting this week against the Bengals.
