It’s been a rough week for the Pittsburgh Steelers, with horrendous back-to-back home-losses against 2-10 teams, the worst-stretch for an NFL team with a winning-record. EVER. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted-passes at the line-of-scrimmage that effect the intended pass-location. This week, a throwaway and batted pass were removed.
QB Mitch Trubisky went 22/35 on the stat sheet for a 62.9-completion-rate and 190-yards. Threw a great strike to WR Diontae Johnson, tracking the over-the-shoulder go-ball touchdown-catch, which was the only meaningful explosive play all game. The other two were in desperation-mode in the final 15-seconds, against off-coverage, and the length of the field down three-points was insurmountable.
Terrible issues dominated the performance, including a BAD interception, a miscommunication with TE Pat Freiermuth throwing it right to the defender. Also had several other turnover-worthy plays, and other issues included: pocket-presence, decision-making, and missing open receivers. 74.7-rating, 30-scramble-yards including a sneak-touchdown, but two sacks that both came on third-down.
The latter was extremely painful, with Pittsburgh’s offense going 3-14 on the money-down (21.4-percent). This included three early three-and-out-fails, deservingly warranting boos from the Pittsburgh-faithful. Also excruciating was going 1-for-3 on fourth-down, both fails needing two yards, one a red-zone-stuff unable to get points of a turnover with great field position, and the other a scream-at-the-T.V. go-ball. Way too big a moment (2-minutes-left) to just cross-your-fingers, and that’s the best play you can come up with?! Sickening.
Let’s examine the 34 charted passes further, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 14:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 47.1-percent. A painfully-high-rate the last two weeks (50-percent in Week 13, and 32.3 previously). One came on the second-drive, a four-yard comeback to WR George Pickens on first-down. Late first-quarter, RB Jaylen Warren got a dump-off at the line-of-scrimmage, adding some YAC for the eight-yard chain-mover. Mid-second-quarter, Trubisky surveys but felt the free-blitzer late, late-triggering to TE Connor Heyward in the flat at-the-line for five-yards.
An early third-quarter third-and-four was one of the few conversions, a decisive-throw to Freiermuth on the stop-route at the chains, adding a few YAC for seven-yards. Later that drive, it’s a dangerous pass-break-up targeting WR Allen Robinson II, the turnover-worthy throw jumped on second-and-nine (third-down sack the following play, with poor pocket-presence).
The next-drive, Pickens got the out-route for five-yards. On third-an-six, he runs a shallow-crosser thrown a bit ahead but makes the one-handed catch look easy. Brought down quickly on an open-field tackle though: make a move, stiff-arm, something to try to force a miss in that situation.
On the early fourth-quarter red-zone-drive (off Miles Killebrew’s huge punt-block), it’s a rarely refreshing sight getting the ball to the big-TE Darnell Washington, a flat-route at one-air-yard and getting great YAC for the 12-yard gain. Important play that eventually led to the Trubisky sneak-TD, narrowing the deficit to three.
Pain followed though, with another near-interception. This one a disastrous RB screen with Warren blanketed, and bad-decision to force it in regardless, yikes. The following third-and-five was an in route to Freiermuth, who thought he converted, but clearly stopped short. Must have more awareness, seemed hesitant on his route, churn harder just in case. Thankfully, Trubisky was able to convert the following fourth-and-one sneak to extend the drive.
Then stop-route (Pickens), and late-game examples against off-coverage: dump-off to RB Najee Harris (14-yards with YAC), and a stop-route to Johnson. The latter set-up manageable late-down situations in crunch-time, but I’ll rehash that horror in a bit.
#2. Behind-the-Line: 17.6-percent. Not what you want to see trailing the majority of the game. The first-example was successful though, a swing to Warren with great blocks in front (Freiermuth, Heyward, and WR Miles Boykin) setting up great YAC for 12-yards.
To start the second-quarter, Trubisky has time then slides towards pressure and dumps it to Harris for no-gain. Later that drive, the screen to Warren works for an eight-yard gain on second-and-three.
Fourth-and-two in the red-zone, T Broderick Jones allowed pressure and leads to a flip-pass to Warren, who was hit-hard gaining only a yard and turnover-on downs. Excruciating down 21-10 to leave without red-zone-points.
The following-drive, Trubisky play-action-boots and hits Harris in the flat for five-yards on first-down. Then with 5:56 left, it’s second-and-three and the call is another screen, but Pickens is stopped for no-gain. Face-palm play-call IMO, and led to a key stalled-drive down three-points, pain.
#3. 15-20 air-yards: 14.7-percent. Big uptick after none last game, but horrid results. First-play of the second-quarter, it’s the bad-interception: a miscommunication on third-and-nine with Freiermuth sitting, Trubisky pressured (Warren, two-blitzers on his side) and throwing it right to the defender, ouch.
The other throws came late-game. It’s third-and-three following the failed-Pickens-screen, and Trubisky is pressured (T Dan Moore/G Isaac Seumalo), leading to a scramble-drill and overthrowing Freiermuth out-of-bounds. 2:44 left and Trubisky finds Freiermuth open over-the-middle, but the high-pass goes through his hands, a catch he is certainly capable of making. Then, another accuracy issue, overthrowing Johnson on the comeback, sailing out-of-bounds.
T-fourth. 5-10 air-yards: 11.8-percent. The remaining-distances tied for least-common. On the second-drive, it’s a dangerous-decision on a stop to Freiermuth, with the DB reading and breaking-it-up. Later they connected on, you guessed it, a stop-route that picked up seven-yards.
Third-quarter, Trubisky found Heyward with open grass, providing a wow-hurdle on the excellent-individual-effort, stretching for just enough on the third-and-ten conversion. This was the only passing-conversion the ENTIRE game.
T-fourth. Explosive: 11.8-percent. This distance was volatile. On third-and-six, it’s a deep-shot to Robinson way over-thrown, the longest-air-yard-attempt of the game. That’s a Pickens-moment, instead, one of the four three-and-out fails of the game. Next was third-and-five second-quarter, overthrown/outside of Johnson on the go-ball, for another fail as Pittsburgh started the game 0-for-5 on third-downs.
The lone-highlight was the aforementioned Johnson-touchdown. Then the elephant in the room. Two-minutes left. Fourth-and-two. Let’s roll-the-dice and chunk a deep-go-ball to Johnson with the must-win-game, and your season on the line. WHY?! Run something better, literally sickening.
T-fourth. 10-15 air-yards: 11.8-percent. Yup, it’s another third-down-fail, this one a severe underthrow on an out to Johnson, nearly picked, three-and-out. Then the third-and-two that proceeded the fourth-and-two deep-shot, overthrowing Pickens on the slant and missing Johnson wide-open on the out-route. Then, two aforementioned explosive-plays in the final-15-seconds against off-coverage, to Johnson and Robinson.
Here are the dots of completions-and-incompletions for the game:
Trailing the entire game, by as many as 18-points, not good Bob. Only three-completions past five yards, and going 3-of-12 on those (25-percent), whoof. 2-of-five on/in between the numbers, and most painful was outside-the-numbers, a horrid 1-of-7 (14.3-percent). At least the connection was the lone-passing touchdown. We do see more intermediate targets than last game (2-for-8), but the two-completions were gimmies in the final 15-seconds. Running out of adjectives.
Now for the heat-maps, with all the charted-passes for Week 14, then completions-only:
Gross. The furthest completion-dots were the explosive touchdown, and the others in desperation-mode as just discussed. So, 86.4-percent of Trubisky’s completions were at five-air-yards or less. JV-results and execution on offense that must improve, knock-on-wood the historically bad-stretch doesn’t continue.
Now let’s look at all 380 charted-throws this season, with frequencies-by-distance and previous-averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 35.5-percent. Previously 34.4-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 23.7-percent. Previously 24.9-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.2-percent. Previously 18.2-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 12.1-percent. Previously 12.1-percent.
#5. Explosive: Season 11.8-percent. Previously 11.8-percent.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: Season 11.1-percent. Previously 10.7-percent.
No changes in the ranks. 0-5 air-yards was the most notable uptick, 5-10 air-yards dipped over a full percentage-point. 15-20 air-yards climbed, while the remaining-distances stood pat.
Here are dots for all charted-throws of 2023, along with completion-rates by distance:
PICKETT:
Behind-the-line: Season 51/58 (87.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 75/99 (75.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 52/75 (69.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent).
Explosive: Season 12/33 (36.4-percent).
TRUBISKY:
Behind-the-line: Season 10/11 (90.9-percent). Previously 4/5 (80-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 27/36 (75-percent). Previously 14/20 (70-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 11/15 (73.3-percent). Previously 9/11 (81.8-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 2/7 (28.6-percent). Previously 2/3 (66.7-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 2/8 (25-percent). Previously 0/3 (0-percent).
Explosive: Season 3/12 (25-percent). Previously 2/8 (25-percent).
Improvements at five-air-yards or less, but we get specific-context to the painful-passing-game from Week 14 otherwise. 10-15 air-yards was especially bad (0-for-four), his first completions at 15-20 air-yards gimmies in the waning-moments, and one explosive-completion a rare-highlight of the putrid-passing-game. Here’s to hoping it can only go up from here, righting this painful-stench Pittsburgh must sit in until Week 15 against the Colts, no slouch as a pass-defense.
To close, here are heat-maps for charted-passes through Week 14, then completions-only:
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
