Pittsburgh is coming off an inexcusably poor performance in all three phases against Arizona, falling 24-10. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, two batted passes were removed.
QB Kenny Pickett was unfortunately injured in-game, on a third-and-goal red-zone scramble that was stopped just short of a TD, instead resulting in excruciating news of a high-ankle sprain. He is out for at least the Week 14 game on this short week, and possibly longer. Prior to the injury, Pickett went 7-of-10 for 70 yards, with no touchdowns, interceptions, or sacks, and an 89.6 rating.
QB Mitch Trubisky went 11-of-17 for 117 yards, a fourth-quarter red-zone TD with the game well-at-hand, no interceptions or sacks, charged with a fumble on a bad shotgun snap from C Mason Cole, and a 104.3 rating. Trubisky entered in the second quarter, with a fourth-and-one from the one-yard-line, with the unsuccessful shotgun carry from RB Najee Harris stuffed, and the turnover-on-downs resulting in an ensuing 99-yard Arizona TD-drive before halftime.
Situational football and self-inflicted wounds were a struggle in Week 13. The Steelers’ offense went 4-of-11 on third down (36.4 percent), 1-of-3 in the red zone (33.3 percent), and had nine team penalties that made life difficult. Pittsburgh was even worse from a conversion perspective in the first half, 1-of-6 on third down for an abysmal 16.7 percent, and 0-for-2 in the red zone. The two-batted-passes also came on third down, including pressure (T Broderick Jones/RB Jaylen Warren, G James Daniels).
Many compounding factors to the painful loss, but conversions discouraging regressed from Week 12, and were detrimental in the pummeling.
Let’s examine the 26 charted passes further, with the number of throws at each pass distance for Week 13:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 50 percent. Expectedly the most common pass-distance as usual, but a much higher rate (32.3 percent last week). The opening field goal drive got to the red zone, and the first pass in this range was incomplete to WR George Pickens, a late scramble against good coverage, with the throw on the run a bit low, charged as a drop (another painful issue). Later in the first quarter, the third-and-five is a screen to WR Diontae Johnson, with a lazy get-off allowing the defense to diagnose quickly and crash hard for the no-gain stop, ugh.
Pickett’s lone third-down-conversion came on the second red-zone-drive (third-and-three, second quarter), standing tall and zipping it to TE Pat Freiermuth on the stop-route with YAC, but came away with no points and the unfortunate injury.
In the third quarter, Trubisky targeted TE Connor Heyward on the stop route, and while the pass was outside his frame, hit his hands and dropped. Backed up on their own end in the fourth quarter, Trubisky faced a third-and-five following a safety-avoiding scramble (Cole pressure), pumping but hit as he re-triggered (Jones), forcing the pass to fall well short of Freiermuth for another fail.
5-of-13 passes in this range came in fourth-quarter garbage time, with Pittsburgh down 24-3. This included all three of RB Najee Harris’ targets, and Arizona’s off-coverage encouraging short-dumpoffs. The first was a low pass, but a good catch by Harris. Another was a stop route to Allen Robinson II, and the last was the only TD of the game to Johnson, a great comeback route in the end-zone to separate for the score. Nice play, but too little, too late.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 30.8 percent. Things started well in this range, with a first-play stop route to Pickens, with Pickett zipping it past the zone LB and including YAC for 13 yards. Then, a second-drive out route to Johnson for five yards on second-and-three. In the second quarter, we also saw a quality/decisive throw to Pickens on a slant (MORE!) against tight single-coverage, adding a bit of YAC for ten yards on second-and-eight. All three Pickett examples moved the chains.
Trubisky also found success here, starting on third-and-nine to Freiermuth from slot alignment, another stop-route early third-quarter despite pressure (Warren/blitz), a great throw, and churn getting just enough to convert. Robinson caught two second-half stop routes for six and eight yards. The second third-quarter drive was to Freiermuth, and yes, it’s a stop-route, finding him open between the hashes at six yards, with YAC and a 12-yard first-down.
#3. Explosive: 19.2 percent. Higher rate this week, mostly from Trubisky, and behind on the scoreboard, expectedly. Pickett’s lone attempt was an encouraging concept/connection with Pickens, a corner route off play-action, and Heyward’s shorter mirrored route conflicting the DB on the 38-yard-catch to the red zone, the longest gain from Week 13 (FG-drive).
Trubisky had four attempts, going 50 percent. Mid-third quarter was the longest air-yard-attempt (46), over the middle into double-coverage. The DB nearly tracked the overthrow. Dangerous. Encouragingly, Trubisky connected on third-and-14 (longest conversion) with Pickens, another successful corner route where he burned the DB with an inside shimmy, then broke out and toe-tapped on the sideline for the great catch and 25 yards.
Then, another missed connection with Heyward late-third-quarter, a seam over-the-middle near the end-zone (26 air yards) on third-and-six, with the failed throw a bit inside (catchable), and followed by a rare missed FG from K Chris Boswell. With 5:33 left in the game, Johnson got wide-open on a post-route versus zone, jumping to catch the slightly high pass, and falling down inside the five on the lone TD drive.
#4. Behind-the-Line: 11.5 percent. Here we saw some presence/progression issues. Looking downfield, Pickett held it against good coverage, with Robinson open early on a check-down, instead targeting the well-covered Warren late at -7 air yards and loss of four. The next second-quarter-example was schemed, a quick-swing-pass to Warren with blockers, gaining five on first down. Then another third-quarter-incompletion, with Trubisky’s check-down to Warren dropped.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 3.8 percent. Only one attempt here, on Calvin Austin III’s lone target, uncovered off-the-line (outside-CB-blitz), making the catch on the sideline for 10 yards.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 0 percent. NONE.
Only one pass at intermediate-air yardage was painful and among the laundry list of hopeful changes for Week 14.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for the game:
The visual really hammers the last point, with most targets less than 10 yards (80.8 percent) or explosive for both QBs. We also see Trubisky favored the middle, 82.4 percent on/between the numbers, including his six incompletions (64.3 completion rate).
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for Week 13, then completions-only:
Neither chart is pretty, and Pickett’s heat maps are actually generous (wider-ranged), given his low attempts. Two things really stand out, the lack of intermediate passing, and three explosive air-yard completions. Comparatively, Pickett had just two of the latter in the previous game, even though the offense felt so much better than this outing. Really emphasizes air yardage as one piece to a massive puzzle in the outcome of games, and the hopeful return to intermediate targets Pittsburgh found success with in Week 12.
Now let’s look at all 346 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 34.4-percent. Previously 33.1-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 24.9-percent. Previously 24.4-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.2-percent. Previously 18.8-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 12.1-percent. Previously 12.8-percent.
#5. Explosive: Season 11.8-percent. Previously 11.3-percent.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: Season 10.7-percent. Previously 11.6-percent.
There was a change in the ranks, with explosives passing this week’s biggest faller of 15-20 air yards, but wish it came in better circumstances. Explosive air yards have been on the rise for multiple weeks, and it will be interesting to see what this looks like with Trubisky and the new offensive coordinators. The biggest riser was 0-5 yards of 1.3 percent, and the remaining pass distances dropped in Week 13.
Here are dots for all charted throws of 2023, along with completion rates by distance:
PICKETT:
Behind-the-line: Season 51/58 (87.9-percent). Previously 49/56 (87.5-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 75/99 (75.8-percent). Previously 72/95 (75.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 52/75 (69.3-percent). Previously 49/72 (68.1-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent). Previously 19/38 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent). Previously 15/34 (44.1-percent).
Explosive: Season 12/33 (36.4-percent). Previously 11/32 (34.4-percent).
TRUBISKY:
Behind-the-line: Season 4/5 (80-percent). Previously 4/4 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 14/20 (70-percent). Previously 8/11 (72.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 9/11 (81.8-percent). Previously 4/6 (66.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 2/3 (66.7-percent). Previously 2/3 (66.7-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 0/3 (0-percent). Previously 0/3 (0-percent).
Explosive: Season 2/8 (25-percent). Previously 0/4 (0-percent).
While it’s a small sample for Trubisky in 2023 thus far, it is interesting to compare what we’ve seen this season, along with things to possibly expect and hopefully improve sans-Pickett.
To close, here are heat maps for charted passes through Week 13, then completions-only:
Pickett added color on the completions-only chart with the left sideline 36 air yarder to Pickens, while Trubisky had his first explosive attempts, including the two large-explosive-completion-dots (low-attempts make them larger than Pickett’s).
There are several things I’d like to see from Trubisky, with intermediate and explosive-passing connections being atop the list in these terms. He does have the more “gunslinger-style” and history and will be interesting to watch unfold. Here’s to hoping he has a strong passing performance in his first start of the 2023 season.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
