Late in Thursday night’s 21-18 loss to the New England Patriots, the Pittsburgh Steelers found themselves with the football near midfield with an opportunity to get into position for at least a game-tying field goal try from kicker Chris Boswell.
Instead, the Steelers completely botched the 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 calls late in the game, resulting in a game-deciding turnover on downs that largely could have been avoided had the Steelers been smarter with play calling.
Following a failed 3rd-and-2 throw to wide receiver George Pickens on an in-breaking route, the Steelers stared down a 4th and 2. Instead of going for the conversion, the Steelers took a deep shot down the left sideline as quarterback Mitch Trubisky uncorked a throw to wide receiver Diontae Johnson in tight coverage.
No flag was thrown on the play and the ball fell harmlessly to the turf, leading to the turnover on downs and resulting in major questions regarding the play call.
Head coach Mike Tomlin stated after the loss that the Steelers were being aggressive and going for the win in that moment, rather than looking to sustain a drive.
A few days after the failed fourth-down play call and the crushing loss, Tomlin doubled down on the decision. He stated that the result of a play dictates often perspective, and that the Steelers have been in that type of situation before and had success being aggressive.
“We went deep to George Pickens late in the game against Baltimore, but we caught that one. And so, oftentimes the result of the play dictates perspective, if you will. And we understand that we don’t live in our fears, man. We play and play to win,” Tomlin said to reporters Monday, according to video via the Steelers’ YouTube page. “A lot of big plays, explosion plays that happen in the NFL happen on weighty downs beyond the sticks. And so we’re really comfortable taking that calculated risk and operating in that way.
“You can’t allow people to overplay the sticks. You can’t have that type of a personality and that’s just playing and playing to win.”
Tomlin is right that there is some outcome bias when it comes to the decision-making. Had Trubisky connected with Johnson on that 4th and 2 for the explosive play, it would be deemed a great play call and a much-needed aggressive approach.
But comparing it to the deep ball to Pickens to help beat the Ravens is rather strange from Tomlin, on a few fronts.
In that Week Five matchup, the Steelers were playing with all the momentum at that point and knew in weighty situations that the Ravens were going to bring the house and go Cover Zero. Baltimore did just that. Pickett adjusted the protection and threw a perfect pass to Pickens for the 41-yard touchdown.Â
There’s a major difference though: that was a 2nd-and-9 deep shot from the Baltimore 41-yard line, not a do-or-die fourth-down shot. At that point, if the Steelers didn’t connect it would still have been 3rd and 9 from Baltimore territory with the Steelers in field goal range for a Boswell attempt, too.
If the Steelers wanted to be aggressive and play to win the game, they should have taken a deep shot on third down, knowing that they were in four-down territory. Instead, they tried to just move the chains on third down and failed, and then decided to take a low-percentage shot down the field on a game-deciding down and distance.
It’s a bad call, period, especially for a team that has struggled greatly to connect on downfield shots all season in those situations, especially when targeting Diontae Johnson. If the Steelers really wanted to be aggressive there, they should have drawn something up for Pickens, who thrives in contested-catch situations.
Outcome bias is a real thing, but in this instance, there is no explaining away the decision. It was bad in the moment, and it remains bad a few days later, no matter how Tomlin tries to compare it to a successful play late in a game more than two months ago.
