On paper, being 7-6 after Week 14 isn’t the end of the world. There will still be a month of games left and the Pittsburgh Steelers, worst-case scenario, will remain on the “in the hunt” graphic when it comes time to show the playoff picture.
In reality, dropping to 7-6 tonight could mean the end of the Steelers’ season. Losses always hurt. But falling to the 2-10 New England Patriots four days after dropping a game to the 2-10 Arizona Cardinals? A gut punch that’ll be tough to come back from.
Though the term is used too often, tonight is “must-win” for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has to act as such.
Tonight, there’s no longer a concern of Pittsburgh overlooking New England, bad as the Patriots are. For any players who assumed they’d take care of Arizona no problem, they’ve learned their lesson. If anything, there’s now a risk the Steelers could begin to press. If this game starts off close, God forbid if Pittsburgh falls behind, players could feel the pressure – they’ll certainly hear about it from the crowd – and try to play hero ball instead of doing their job. From there, things could crumble.
Jumping out to an early lead sure would help, something the Steelers don’t often do. In 12 games this season, they’ve been in front after the first quarter in just two of them.
If this game starts to go sideways, Tomlin’s going to have to look in the mirror. If QB Mitch Trubisky is harming more than helping, if he’s being too careless with the football and creating costly turnovers, Tomlin must go to Mason Rudolph. Perhaps a halftime switch but if Trubisky isn’t getting the job done, Tomlin’s going to have to make a change. It comes with its own unknowns — Rudolph hasn’t thrown a regular season pass in two years — but Tomlin has to adopt a whatever-it-takes approach to get the win. If a player is repeating fundamental mistakes that broke this team against the Cardinals, he has to be replaced. This isn’t the time to give it time and let things play out. Pittsburgh doesn’t have margin for error.
Losing can’t happen. The Steelers can’t lose consecutive games at home against two of the worst teams in football. They can’t sit and stew on that fact for nine days until they play the Indianapolis Colts next Saturday. They can’t be on their couch this weekend watching the AFC’s Wild-Card teams gain ground and pass them by. And it’s a competitive race. Those Colts, the Cleveland Browns, the Denver Broncos, the Houston Texans are all in this thing. Three weeks ago, the NFL world talked about the AFC North sending three teams to the playoffs. Now, it might be the AFC South that does that.
Despite what looked like a favorable schedule just two weeks ago, entering this week the Patriots are the last team Pittsburgh will play that has a losing record. The Colts are 7-5, hanging tough despite multiple key injuries. Jake Browning showed he can play, at least a little, and the Bengals are back to .500. The Seattle Seahawks also sit at 6-6 and the Steelers will have to go to their place for Week 17. And the Baltimore Ravens are sitting pretty atop the division. Sure, they might have the North locked up by Week 18, but they could still be playing for the one seed, meaning they’re less likely to rest their starters.
The Steelers’ path is tough the rest of the way. In part because they make it that way, beating themselves as much as the opponent does, but this is a win that can’t be squandered away. As bad as Pittsburgh’s looked, the New England Patriots have a historically incompetent offense. The last team to average fewer points per game than they are was the 2011 Los Angeles Rams. They’ve scored no more than seven points in three straight games, something only three other NFL teams have done since 2005. But as is the constant, latent fear Steelers fans hold, rightfully so, the Patriots will somehow find a way to gain traction tonight. They won’t score 30 but they’ll score 17 and guarantee another nail-biting finish.
Ugly as that type of win would be, at least it would be a victory. It’s sure better than a defeat. Lose to the Patriots and you threaten to lose not just the season but the locker room, a group simmering to a near-boil all year through the frustrations of the season. On his podcast, Patrick Peterson said good teams don’t lose two straight games and they “damn sure” don’t do it to teams like the Cardinals and Patriots.
If the Steelers fall tonight, Peterson’s words will be proven correct. That they aren’t a good team. And if they lose and sit at home come January because of it, they’ll deserve it.
