As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week 12’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Good Time Keep Rolling With Run Game
Despite a talented collection of front-seven members, the Bengals have one of the worst rushing defenses in football. They’re 31st league-wide in yards per carry allowed and give up a ton of big plays. Pittsburgh’s running game has been excellent for three-straight games. They gotta make it four. Inside zone with RB Jaylen Warren looking for cutbacks, power/gap schemes with Najee Harris, and some receiver running game with WR Calvin Austin III should be the team’s baseline gameplan.
2. Kenny Pickett Can Find His Groove
With Matt Canada gone, all eyes shift towards Kenny Pickett. His OC is no longer here to “shield” Pickett from the most-intense criticism thrown his way. And Canada can no longer be the blanket answer to every offensive struggle the Steelers have. Pickett just has to hit what’s open, take what’s there, and he can still end the season on a high note. Not expecting magic. Just competent quarterback play. He can do it. But he’s gotta prove it.
3. Chris Boswell Outperforms Evan McPherson
Can’t forget about special teams. The AFC North features three of the NFL’s best kickers. Baltimore’s Justin Tucker and the two playing in Cincinnati today in Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell and Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson. Three of the best legs who can hit from 55-plus.
With one side dealing with a backup quarterback and the other playing like one, kickers and specialists will be critical. This is the type of game that could come down to a field goal, as it did for the Steelers last week, who ended up on the wrong end of things. Boswell needs to prove his mettle.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Joey Porter Jr. Struggles On Ja’Marr Chase
Though not confirmed, it’s expected that Porter will shadow Chase in this one. With WR Tee Higgins out, Chase is the Bengals top weapon and only star in the passing game. But Porter took his lumps against a technical and quick route runner in the Browns’ Amari Cooper. Chase may not be that refined but he’s fluid and a top athlete. Porter can’t just jam him all day. He’s going to have to flip his hips and defend the whole route tree.
2. Bengals ILBs Make Plays
Cincinnati has two playmaking off-ball linebackers in Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. And they make plays against Pittsburgh. Always a thorn in the Steelers’ side, they can’t play free and make plays. That means controlling the first level and their space eaters in D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill without getting stuck on combo blocks and unable to climb to the second level.
In the pass game, Wilson can’t be forgotten about over the middle of the field. If Pickett throws it there, he has to know where No. 55 is at.
3. Third Down Offense Remains Poor
Pittsburgh’s third down offense has been a mess the last two weeks. Against the Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns combined, they’re 7-of-27 the last two weeks. That’s 25.9 percent, a dreadful number. Some of the issue has been the offense being in third-and-long but the run game has been effective and kept the offense on schedule. They just gotta find ways to convert. Hitting 40 percent would be a good place to start in this game. Cincinnati enters with the 28th-ranked third down offense in football and will be without top corner Cam Taylor-Britt. For Pittsburgh, there’s no excuses here.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Bengals: 17
Season Prediction Record
6-4
