Pittsburgh is now 6-4 following a painful divisional loss. This came in large part due to the putrid 106 passing yards on offense, with clear reoccurring problems with Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, and the final straw with the Steelers finally firing OC Matt Canada. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line-of-scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, a whopping three throwaways and three batted passes were removed.
Pickett went 15-for-28 on the stat sheet for a rough 53.6 completion percentage, second worst of 2023 (50-percent in the first Week Two Browns matchup). The lowest pass yardage in full games the last two outings, with the 106 last week the worst. Just 3.8 YPA and a 62.5 passer-rating in Week 11, also new lows this season. No touchdowns or interceptions, with the latter continuing an encouraging six-game streak, but the conservative approach has led to only six passing touchdowns including none the last two games.
Accuracy, miscommunications, and decision-making were critical throughout, particularly against a stellar Cleveland defense, with Pickett and the passing-game beating themselves far too often. Pass-protection was an issue, with Pickett sacked three times including elite EDGE Myles Garrett on the first offensive play for a near safety (LT Dan Moore). On another later in the game, Pickett had WR Diontae Johnson wide-open on a crosser over-the-middle, instead spinning left for the negative play.
Painfully, zero explosive pass plays, 3-of-14 on all third downs (just two passing conversions), and only four total first downs in the pass game, sickening. One positive was a fourth-and-one tush-push conversion. Unfortunately, the unsustainable wins overcoming the poor passing game came to a screeching halt on Sunday, despite another strong day on the ground (172-yards) and on defense.
Let’s examine the 22 charted passes further, with number of throws at each pass distance this week:
T-first. 0-5 air-yards: 22.7-percent. Three-way tie for the most common pass distance (behind-the-line/5-10 air-yards). One was a throw to TE Darnell Washington in the flat at two air-yards on third-and-11, who gave good churning YAC effort but stopped short on the eight-yard gain. In the second quarter came another fail on third-and-five, one of the miscommunications where Johnson broke in, but Pickett threw outside.
Another flat-route on third-and-four in the third quarter, at the line-of-scrimmage to RB Najee Harris, corralled quickly and able to only muster a yard. A fourth quarter second-and-seven, and you guessed it, flat-route to WR Allen Robinson II who took an immediate big hit at three air-yards.
One success came on a fourth-quarter third-and-four conversion, a nice route-concept with Johnson running the slot-out and the outside receiver creating a pick/rub for space, and Pickett making a nice throw despite a QB hit (Moore) for six-yards.
T-first. Behind-the-Line: 22.7-percent. Miscommunications at this distance as well. Second-and-11, second drive was a swing-pass to RB Jaylen Warren behind three WRs, none of which blocked and a swarm of Browns tackling the no-gainer. TE Pat Freiermuth’s return was welcomed, but dumbfoundingly targeted just once, a screen that picked up seven on a third quarter first-and-ten, which should have gone for more (ran into C Mason Cole downfield). Hoping his involvement is a big change with the coordinator news (nine catches in five games).
An encouraging play was a rare third-down passing-conversion, third-and-13 early fourth quarter, a Warren screen from TE alignment for excellent YAC (19) and 14-yard gain, just enough to move-the-chains and included a great block by G James Daniels.
Begrudgingly, another screen followed. This one to Johnson, getting just three yards on first down. Then, third-and-15 with under five-minutes left, back to the Warren screen behind the trips receivers that horribly failed earlier picked up just two yards, with Freiermuth getting a good block but Robinson missing his allowing the tackle. Tied late in the game, and this one had me yelling in frustration.
T-first. 5-10 air-yards: 22.7-percent. On the all-too-familiar opening-drive three-and-out that started with a sack and run (both near safeties), third-and-18 backed up on the goal-line was an out-route. Pickett was low on the pass rolling left to Robinson, diving for the catch limiting YAC, another issue through the game.
The following drive, good throw from Pickett to WR George Pickens on a slot-out, squeezing it past a defender for six-yards on first-down. In the final two-minutes, it was an excruciating three-and-out on three-straight passes to Johnson, hairpulling with a tied scoreboard and Warren the only bright-spot all day. First-down was an out-route thrown ahead of Johnson, taking a bump at the stem of the route that may have affected timing.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: 18.2-percent. The first drive of the second quarter featured a nice throw and comeback route by Pickens, getting open for the sideline-catch, and stretched for extra yards on the 14-yard gain. A third-and-12 in the third quarter was a rare intermediate-target over-the-middle, a nice throw and crossing-route, close-but-no-cigar tackled just short of the chains.
Mid-fourth quarter Pickett was off-target on an under-center play-action comeback-route to Pickens, with great body-control to corral it for 12-yards on first-and-ten. Last was the third-and-ten fail with 1:32 in the game, a critically inaccurate high-pass on an intermediate out-route, with third-times-a-charm unfortunately not the case to Johnson, and the final-straw of Canada’s tenure.
T-fifth. 15-20 air-yards: 9.1-percent. Tied with explosives, on just two plays. Both were incompletions to Johnson in the third quarter. First was inaccurate, thrown high on-the-run (pressure RT Broderick Jones), with tight defense as well. Then another miscommunication on third-and-eight, Johnson running the go, Pickett expecting an intermediate-route, another three-and-out drive.
T-fifth. Explosive: 9.1-percent. Two incompletions here as well, both in the fourth quarter. One was a back-shoulder attempt to Pickens, who was nearly able to toe-tap it, but thrown a bit too far out-of-bounds. Feel like a broken record, but the other was yet another miscommunication, this time Johnson breaking-off the route and Pickett throwing the go-ball.
The team’s number one priority is to iron-out communication, which was extremely frustrating with the offense finally having their full cupboard of weapons healthy.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for Week 11:
Another abysmal element to the Week 11 passing performance was lack of downfield passing, zero-for-two on explosives and zero-for-four past 15-yards, and Pickett was zero-for-five on his longest air-yardage passes.
No throws between the hashes again, but a bright spot was 6-of-6 on/between the numbers on charted passes. Outside the numbers, Pickett favored the right side of the field, going 6-of-10 and 3-for-6 to the left.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions-only:
As we see on the ugly completions only chart, it was another short passing game, with the longest completion at 12 air-yards. Rarely targeting the middle of the field is, which is also unfortunately unsurprising. It will be interesting to see if any of this changes, which I’m hopeful for considering the rare mid-season coordinator-move made by Coach Tomlin, showing he was fed up (finally).
Now let’s look at all 289 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 33.2-percent. Previously 34.1-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 23.9-percent. Previously 24.0-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 19.0-percent. Previously 18.7-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 13.8-percent. Previously 13.5-percent.
#5. 15-20 air-yards: Season 11.8-percent. Previously 12.0-percent.
#6. Explosive: Season 10.7. Previously 10.9-percent.
No changes, with the pass distance ranks stabilizing the past several weeks. Two risers, each by 0.3-percent: behind-the-line and 10-15 air-yards. Downticks, otherwise, with the biggest faller 0-5 air-yards, typically the most common distance.
Here are dots for all Pickett’s charted throws of 2023, along with his completion-rates by distance:
Behind-the-line: Season 44/51 (86.3-percent). Previously 39/46 (84.8-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 63/85 (74.1-percent). Previously 59/80 (73.6-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 41/63 (65.1-percent). Previously 37/58 (63.8-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/37 (51.4-percent). Previously 16/33 (48.5-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 13/31 (41.9-percent). Previously 13/29 (44.8-percent).
Explosive: Season 9/27 (33.3-percent). Previously 9/25 (36-percent).
The completion-rates of course don’t tell the full story, but Pickett was able to improve his percentages at 15-or-less air-yards. 10-15 yards most notably, going 3-of-4 last game and eclipsing 50-percent on the season. Past 15 air-yards was a no-fly-zone, going 0-for-four, and only completing a third of his explosive air-yard throws in 2023, yikes.
To close, here are heat maps for Pickett’s charted passes through Week 11, then his completions-only:
An added dot on the first chart was the miscommunicated go-ball to Johnson, the longest air-yardage (40) of Week 11. The completions-only chart hasn’t improved for multiple weeks, with too many re-occurring issues. Refreshingly, Pittsburgh finally had enough, and hopefully the jettison of Canada inspires the much-needed pass-game improvements moving forward.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
