Mike Tomlin can explain it away all he wants. A great opposing defense. A focus on establishing the run. The winning model the Pittsburgh Steelers are trying to build. At some point, the blame for the Steelers’ continued offensive woes have to turn to one person. Their quarterback. Kenny Pickett.
Tomlin said he needed more. He’s right. We’re all still waiting for it.
I don’t want to dump on the guy each week. Because it’s not all his fault. Context, nuance, and patience are all important ingredients in evaluating a football player, especially a quarterback. But at a point, there’s a commonality. And excuses die hard. Many first-round quarterbacks ride a roller coaster early in their career. Some good games, some bad ones, with fans vacillating between “savior” and “bust” on a week-to-week basis. Heck, look at the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield. That’s what that fan base did before the team finally moved on.
But for Pickett, for the Steelers, the last month hasn’t been a roller coaster. It’s just one downhill spiral, each week worse than the last. You know me – I’m not concluding anything until Pickett’s second season is over. There are more games to watch, more passes to be thrown, and the Steelers are still in the middle of a playoff race.
Still, it’s not going well. At all. What is clear as of now: Pickett has not progressed since his rookie year. He’s regressed. And I don’t know how he gets it turned around to a point that matches expectations when the Steelers declared him their next franchise quarterback.
The best way I can sum up my concern with Pickett, other than just telling you to go watch the game, is Pittsburgh’s game plan in Sunday’s 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns. It mirrored what the Browns did on the other side. Only they trotted out fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, making his second career start and only because Deshaun Watson was lost for the year with a fractured shoulder.
The Steelers and Browns coaching staff handled things the same way. A heavy dose of the running game, short passes in the flats, a little play-action, and as conservatively as a quarterback can be treated. Neither quarterback took deep shots. It may have been Pittsburgh’s intent but not its results. Pickett averaged 3.8 yards per attempt, the same figure as Thompson-Robinson on the other end.
There’s no question the Browns are a tough defense. One of the toughest in the NFL and that fact shouldn’t be ignored. But it can’t wash away everything. If Pickett throwing for under 100 yards until the game’s final play is justified by playing a strong defense, then the Steelers should never have hopes of making a Super Bowl run again. Because it’s going to require real obstacles. A great defense. A high-flying offense you have to match score-for-score. A game where your quarterback has to take control, consistent make plays, and sit in the driver’s seat to victory. Most games, Pickett’s sidecar.
It’s not just about the Browns game. A one-off happens to all quarterbacks, even elite ones. This is a consistent, month-long pattern of futility. His stats from the last four games with the first against Jacksonville only first half stats before being bounced because of a rib injury:
Week 8 – 10/16 73 yards 0 TDs 0 INTs
Week 9 – 19/30 160 yards 1 TD 0 INTs
Week 10 – 14/23 126 yards 0 TDs 0 INTs
Week 11 – 14/27 106 yards 0 TDs 0 INTs
Numbers that don’t even reach mediocre. They’re just miserable. His Week 10 matchup against the Green Bay Packers was ripe for a big day versus a subpar defense missing its top cornerback and generally battered in the secondary. Yet, Pickett’s numbers were hardly better in that game than they were in this one. His biggest issue is below-to-average accuracy when it was supposed to be his calling card and the stated central reason why the Steelers drafted him.
His only saving grace is not turning the football over, tying a team record of six straight games dating back to Week Five, but it’s partially because he’s so conservative with the football. A part of you almost wants to see a mistake because maybe it’ll mean he’s trying to make plays down the field. The only thing he’s comfortable with is throwing on the outside against man coverage when he gets 1v1 looks. Because they’re clean and simple reads without any noise. It’s a 1v1 matchup, I’m going to put the ball up. To his credit, he’s shown accuracy and aptitude to making those throws — his back-shoulder placement is excellent — but it’s the only card he has to play.
Teams that have taken that away from Pickett have flourished. The San Francisco 49ers played almost exclusively zone, a ton of Cover 3, and it fooled and shut down the Steelers’ passing attack. Cleveland borrowed a similar script Sunday, Pickett admitted that Pittsburgh expected man (which had been the Browns’ personality) but saw a ton of zone. Again, Pickett and the Steelers’ air attack were grounded. On the other side, when the Baltimore Ravens curiously played a high dosage of man coverage in Week Five, Pickett made plays late and hit WR George Pickens one-on-one downfield for the game-winning touchdown. Man, he can win against. Zone, it’s a struggle.
The key for opposing defenses is to play soft zone. Take away the vertical sideline throw, make messier reads for Pickett, and watch him fall into a shell. He’s reduced into old habits of spinning and bailing on pockets instead of stepping and climbing, an area he has gotten better at throughout the season. But regression showed up under pressure against the Browns; he had the benefit of hardly being touched the two prior games.
The Steelers’ offense has other problems. No question. On the whole, OC Matt Canada is uninspiring, though better as of late, and his game plans have completely missed the mark too many times (again, they came out with a plan to beat man and got nothing but zone; my initial feel is that Canada didn’t call a good game Sunday). The offensive line has some issues and there aren’t enough interior weapons. But there are pieces. There is talent and everyone was healthy Sunday afternoon. This offense should be better than it’s been. Heck, it was better last year with a younger and worse-looking offensive roster.
At some point, not everything can and should be excused away. There’s always just that one thing that’s preventing Pickett from making plays. When Diontae Johnson went down, it was George Pickens was always doubled (which, to be fair, was valid which would go away once Johnson was healthy. When Johnson returned and Pickens still didn’t perk up, Tomlin said Pickens was…still being doubled. Then he turned it into Pat Freiermuth being the reason why Pickens was always doubled. It’s never-ending goalpost moving to shift the blame away from Pickett. I can understand Tomlin’s angle, not wanting to openly critique his quarterback and generate headlines and hot takes and distractions and even more external pressure on Pickett. He’s trying to protect Pickett the best he can. You have to wonder how much longer he can keep that up.
For Pickett, I’m not throwing in the towel. It might be in my hand, my arm might be moving forward, but it’s fair to still hold out hope. He has to show, in at least one game against a halfway-quality opponent the rest of the season, that he can put together a complete game. Show why he can be the franchise quarterback. Have a glimmer of hope. A game to make your case. It hasn’t happened yet. Not once in his career. The closest he’s gotten was Week Seven against the Los Angeles Rams, a game I praised him for, but even that didn’t quite reach the bar.
Why can every other quarterback have that moment, even if it’s false and fleeting? Why can Josh Dobbs hop around and have success team-to-team? Why can Zach Wilson look competent and go down swinging against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Why can Tommy DeVito, whose name still doesn’t sound like a real NFL quarterback, have a three-touchdown day and put up 31 points to beat the Washington Commanders, two things Pickett has never done in his 22 NFL starts?
The old adage is to win a game, you have to first not lose it. Pickett’s gotten that far. He doesn’t make the killer mistakes that sink your ship. But was that what Pittsburgh drafted him to be? There has to be more. And if there’s not, if this is it, then the Steelers must begin considering their future at quarterback the moment the 2023 season ends.
