Pittsburgh is now 4-3, coming off a tough-to-watch loss against Jacksonville. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways on the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, QB Kenny Pickett’s throwaway in which he was unfortunately injured, along with a Mitch Trubisky bat and spike were removed.
Pickett went 10-for-16 (62.5%) before being forced to exit just before halftime for 73 yards (low 4.6 YPA), no touchdowns or interceptions, a sack (second play of the game for the second week in a row) allowed by RT Chukwuma Okorafor and a 73.2 rating.
Another slow start, including two drops by WR Diontae Johnson on the first drive, and four straight three-and-outs. Lack of scoring. Poor showing from the offensive line. Non-existent run game (12 running back attempts for 32 yards, 2.7 YPA).
Trubisky was 15-for-27 (55.6%) for 138 yards, the only touchdown on WR George Pickens’ only catch (five targets), but he threw two interceptions and was sacked for a 51.2 rating. For the passing game, execution was the prime issue in this one.
Let’s examine the 40 charted passes further, with number of throws at each pass distance this week:
T-1st. 0-5 air-yards: 30%. On the opening drive, 3rd and 6 was a near pick due to Johnson losing his footing (an issue on multiple occasions in the rain). Another issue was obviously the hits Pickett endured, including a huge one from a free rusher though he got the pass to RB Najee Harris in the flat.
Trubisky had nine attempts, mostly late with the game out of hand. Under four minutes to go and the Steelers down 10, he converted a 3rd and 2 over the middle to TE Connor Heyward on a stop route, one of three third-down conversions all game (3-for-12). Facing 4th and 16, he bailed from a clean pocket and threw ahead of RB Jaylen Warren incomplete. The short target would have failed anyway. TE Rodney Williams had a drop late as well.
T-1st. 5-10 air-yards: 30%. Nice throw/slant from Pickett to Johnson in the first quarter, but face-palming horizontal YAC limited the gain to eight. Another strong connection came on a stop route with good separation, and bit of YAC for 12 yards. Consecutive out routes to Johnson followed, an under-center play-action for six, and in the red zone for Pickett’s only third-down conversion of the game.
There were several unfortunate misses, including the most painful one, an end zone target to Johnson. He was wide open on the in-breaker (cleared by Heyward), but he and Pickett were on different pages, and the ball was thrown behind Johnson, clearly livid that his touchdown drought continues (since 2021). The two did connect for a great play shortly after, Johnson making an excellent sideline catch after Pickett escaped pressure (LT Dan Moore).
Trubisky had a dangerous scramble drill eluding pressure (Moore), but a cringeworthy cross-field throw was luckily caught by Johnson for 12 yards on a 3rd-and-2 conversion. Most encouraging was obviously the lone offensive score, making a decisive throw at seven air yards to Pickens on the slant with great separation against rare single coverage. He provided impressive YAC, including a hurdle/missed tackle for the 22-yard touchdown (only explosive play). A Trubisky issue was staring down receivers, one resulting in a pass breakup on a stop route.
No. 3. Explosive: 17.5%. Pickett had three explosive attempts, all incomplete. The first play of the game was a great design, slightly overthrown to Johnson over the middle but hitting his hands on a huge drop. Gut-wrenching. Johnson’s other drop was also an explosive attempt on the opening drive, though the coverage was tight on Pickett’s scramble throw (Okorafor beat/Jags declined holding penalty). Later in the first quarter, Pickett severely underthrew Pickens on a corner route, another big missed opportunity with a pass break-up. Love the aggressiveness to start the game though.
Trubisky had four attempts, all incomplete as well. One was a prayer before halftime, bailing from a clean pocket and throwing ahead of Johnson. Another was WR Allen Robinson II’s only target, an interception with three defenders in the area. Then, a near-pick into double coverage on a Pickens go-ball, both horrible decisions. A final Hail Mary pass was also intercepted. Excruciating explosive air-yard results.
No. 4. Behind the Line: 12.5%. G Isaac Seumalo was unfortunately beat on 3rd and 7, resulting in a huge Pickett hit. That forced the dump-off on Pittsburgh’s fourth-straight third-down fail to open the game. On the red zone trip in the second quarter, the play call was a flip pass to Heyward, who was stopped for no gain on 2nd and goal. Ugh.
Trubisky and Warren connected on a screen, with trips-bunch routes in front, creating space with the latter able to stay on his feet for a nice 11-yard gain. Another positive was a screen with the Steelers backed up to their own end zone, WR Calvin Austin III providing good YAC for seven yards.
T-5th. 10-15 air-yards: 7.5%. Trubisky stared down an in-breaker by Heyward that was undercut and broken up. Another was a great throw and catch on an out-route by Johnson against tight-coverage for 11 yards.
T-5th. 15-20 air-yards: 7.5%. Pickett went under-center play-action, reading and finding Johnson late, but he found space on the sideline for an outstanding toe-tap grab. Trubisky’s other near-pick was another slip by Johnson, staring him down again as the defender telegraphed it. Another came on 3rd and 7, an overturned incompletion where Pickens had a near excellent toe-tap on a back-shoulder from Trubisky.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for Week Eight:
The lack of explosive success stands out right away, 0-for-7 on such attempts. Longest completion of 16 air yards came from Pickett, with Trubisky’s best 11 air yards (twice).
Much more on/in between the numbers for Trubisky, 64% of his charted passes and going a strong 13-for-16 (81.3%). Just 2-for-9 outside the numbers though (22.2%), including 0-for-6 past 15 yards. Ouch.
Pickett went 3-for-5 on/between the numbers (60%) with the longest completion at seven air yards. He was 7-for-10 outside the numbers (70%), with both completion rates worse than last week despite the smaller sample size.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only (brace yourselves):
Yikes. Not much heat on what I’ll call “dark maps” this week after improvement in Week Seven. That was particularly true for Trubisky, with the completions-only visual highlighting the earlier point of short middle success, but really struggling outside the numbers and downfield.
A bit better for Pickett, particularly outside the numbers, and really emphasizes the poor offensive execution we saw on Sunday. If the Steelers can clean that up, there’s optimism for improvement with some encouraging play calling we saw moving forward.
Now let’s look at all 217 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
No. 1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 31.3%. Previously 31.6%.
No. 2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 25.3%. Previously 24.3%.
No. 3. Behind the line: Season 17.1%. Previously 18.1%.
No. 4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 15.2%. Previously 16.9%.
No. 5. 15-20 air-yards: Season 12.4%. Previously 13.6%.
No. 6. Explosive: Season 11.1%. Previously 9.6%.
No changes in the ranks this week. NOTE: I forgot to change the headers last week (apologies). The biggest change was a downtick in 10-15 air-yard passes. The biggest riser was explosives, expected with the Steelers trailing most of the game and Trubisky being more of a risk taker. Passes with 5-10 air-yards also increased, while the other distances dipped in Week Eight.
Here are dots for all charted throws of 2023, along with completion rates by distance and quarterback:
Pickett:
Behind the line: Season 29/33 (87.9%). Previously 27/31 (87.1%).
0-5 air-yards: Season 42/57 (73.7%). Previously 40/54 (74.1%).
5-10 air-yards: Season 32/49 (65.3%). Previously 27/42 (64.3%).
10-15 air-yards: Season 16/30 (53.3%). Previously 16/30 (53.3%).
15-20 air-yards: Season 10/24 (41.7%). Previously 9/23 (39.1%).
Explosive: Season 7/20 (35%). Previously 7/17 (41.2&).
Trubisky:
Behind the line: Season 4/4 (100%).
0-5 air-yards: Season 8/11 (72.7%).
5-10 air-yards: Season 4/6 (66.7%).
10-15 air-yards: Season 2/3 (66.7%).
15-20 air-yards: Season 0/3 (0%).
Explosive: Season 0/4 (0%).
Expectedly, Pickett’s season completion rates decline with each pass distance. Improvements this week include behind the line, 5-10, and 15-20 air-yards. His rated at 0-5 dipped, 10-15 air-yards stood pat, and the biggest decline of over 6% was unfortunately explosives, though only one of the three was on him (underthrown corner route to Pickens).
For Trubisky, the sample size of just 30 charted throws is notable but important to investigate with the possibility he plays Thursday. He has comparable or better numbers to Pickett at 15 air yards or less, but a painful 0-for-7 past that mark this season with two interceptions (Pickett four touchdowns and three interceptions).
To close, here are heat maps for all charted passes, then completions only:
Clearly better with Pickett at quarterback, which will hopefully be the case on this short week. Here’s to hoping, considering there’s not a lot of optimism, that the offense is less offensive against the Titans.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
