Today I wanted to revisit a favorite stat here at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), which is (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). Taking the offensive (OANY/A) and defensive (DANY/A) results, we get a differential.
To review the importance of the stat, only one Super Bowl Winner since 2000 has had a negative differential, and no team has had a DANY/A of six or above. Here are links to the full 2022 season results and ANY/A Stats Week Seven if you’d like to compare trends with this article.
Here are the 2023 results through week 12:
Six teams are clearly above average on both sides of the ball: SF, BAL, DAL, MIA, BUF, and KC, each with eight or more wins sans the under-achieving Bills (six). The 7-4 Pittsburgh Steelers have a below-average 5.0 OANY/A (T-24th), while the defense has a solid 5.5 DANY/A, ranking much better at 11th. This equates to a -0.5 differential, tying for 19th in the NFL. The offense needs to step up to hopefully improve to a positive differential, which bodes well in the history books for making and winning in the postseason.
There’s reason to be optimistic coming off the encouraging passing performance from QB Kenny Pickett and company in Week 12, and here’s how things have progressed weekly on offense:
Since the Week Seven article, Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled until last week, when they eclipsed the ideal 6.5 OANY/A number (blue line) against Cincinnati. The Steelers have achieved this only three times this season, with Week 12’s 7.66 OANY/A ranking third. This came in Pickett’s best game of the year, keeping his no-interception streak going, a season-best 278 yards (33 attempts), but sacked twice and no touchdowns. There were multiple opportunities though, including WR Diontae Johnson having a debatable one slip away out-of-bounds, and TE Pat Freiermuth’s feet tangling with the DB on another. Stay aggressive, and TDs will hopefully follow.
The prior four games were stale in comparison, all below the line, with a 2-2 record. The losses were the worst OANY/A performances as expected, against Jacksonville and Cleveland, all in the current playoff picture with Pittsburgh.
Against Jacksonville, Pickett was forced out of the game, sustaining a rib injury in the first half. Before exiting, he had 16 attempts for 73 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and sacked once, while Mitch Trubisky had 27 attempts, 138 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and sacked twice. In totality: 43 attempts, 211 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and three sacks for a 2.63 OANY/A, fourth-worst for Pittsburgh in 2023.
Pickett showed admirable toughness to play despite injury, facing the Titans in Week Nine. He put up a 6.0 OANY/A that was the best of this four-game-stretch, and fifth in 2023. He had 30 attempts, 160 yards, a huge fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown that ended WR Diontae Johnson’s historic drought, no interceptions, and encouragingly no sacks at less than 100 percent.
Then against Green Bay, Pickett posted a 4.96 OANY/A on 23 attempts, 126 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and a sack. Pittsburgh leaned on the running game (34 attempts), which eclipsed 200 yards (205) and added two touchdowns.
The visual highlights the AFC North roller-coaster the last two games, with the Week 11 loss to Cleveland gut-wrenching. Pickett struggled against the stellar pass defense, with a season-low 106 yards on 28 attempts, no touchdowns or interceptions in another game, and was sacked three times for an abysmal 2.48 OANY/A, second-worst mark of 2023.
Lack of passing yards and scoring was a common theme in this four-game stretch, and ultimately led to Matt Canada’s firing. Pittsburgh responded even better than I anticipated in Week 12, with room to improve even more considering touchdown opportunities were left on the field.
Here’s a weekly view of the defense:
Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid overall since the bye, and better than the ideal 6.0 DANY/A number in the last four games. This is especially encouraging in S Minkah Fitzpatrick’s absence, injured early in the Week Eight game against Jacksonville (hamstring), which was the only below-the-line performance since.
Considering the huge loss of Fitzpatrick in that game, Pittsburgh’s 7.07 DANY/A could have been worse. They allowed a less-than-ideal 300 yards (32 attempts), and a 56-yard-touchdown allowed (miscommunication between CB Joey Porter Jr. and S Damontae Kazee) in his absence though. Kazee did step up with a red-zone interception, and the pass-rush had three combined sacks (LB Elandon Roberts 1.5, half-sacks from EDGE T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and DL Armon Watts) on QB Trevor Lawrence, despite getting the ball out quickly (second-fastest 2.26 time-to-throw of the week).
Pittsburgh’s defense posted a 4.42 DANY/A against Tennessee in Week Nine. They allowed 262 yards to QB Will Levis on 39 attempts, no touchdowns allowed, a huge final-drive red-zone interception from LB Kwon Alexander (now on IR), and a whopping four sacks from their EDGE group: Highsmith (two), Watt, and Markus Golden.
Against Green Bay, their Week 10 DANY/A dropped to 5.68. QB Jordan Love had 288 yards (40 attempts) and two touchdowns, both allowed by CB Levi Wallace, whose playing time has decreased dramatically since. The defense was quieter in terms of sacks, with one from Watt, and encouragingly got two picks from safeties Keanu Neal (tipped by CB Patrick Peterson) and Kazee, with the latter coming on a clutch red-zone interception, sealing games in this fashion two weeks in a row.
Week 11 was Pittsburgh’s best 2.68 DANY/A of 2023, playing well against Cleveland and rookie-backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson as expected. He had just 165 yards on 43 attempts and no touchdowns. CB Chandon Sullivan provided a third-and-five interception, but Pittsburgh sacked DTR just once (Watt). The Steelers’ defense has been encouragingly solid in the AFC North, including the Week Two Browns matchup (before QB Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury) and Week Five against the strong Ravens squad.
This includes last week’s Bengals game, against another backup in QB Jake Browning, with Joe Burrow lost for the season as well. Pittsburgh had a 5.73 DANY/A, allowing 227 yards (26 attempts) and a red-zone touchdown to the wide-open TE in the flat, running it in from 11 yards out. Four sacks were vital, from Watt (two), DL Cameron Heyward, and EDGE Nick Herbig. S Trenton Thompson also added an interception, reading, and under-cutting for the big-play turnover, turning the tide for Pittsburgh’s scoring drive on offense.
With Fitzpatrick set to return soon, the pass defense that has already shown encouraging improvements since the bye seems to set up for a great stretch run. Pass rush and high takeaway rates likely strike fear for the opposition, and passing yardage allowed will hopefully continue to trend positively to close the season.
Here’s a table view of the season data to close, ranking the teams by ANY/A differential:
Pittsburgh is still tied for 19th as they were in my last article, but a slightly improved -0.5 differential. Obviously, you want this in the positive, with Pittsburgh’s 5.0 OANY/A needing to improve the most. The last game’s strong 7.66 OANY/A despite no touchdowns hopefully is a spring-board in this goal. The defense has been much steadier as the team’s backbone, especially post-bye, and will hopefully continue this upon Fitzpatrick’s return.
Very encouraged on Pittsburgh’s outlook for the rest of 2023, especially if the offense can connect on their touchdown opportunities. Recent improvements are aligning at a great time, and knock-on-wood, these positive trends continue, as the Steelers currently sit at fifth in the AFC playoff picture.
Next up is a seemingly favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 30th in ANY/A differential.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
