The 4-2 Pittsburgh Steelers host the 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars for their next challenge, with each team on a winning streak. Let’s dive into the matchup.
QB Trevor Lawrence spearheads the Jacksonville offense, currently 11th in passing yards, 67.4 completion rate (12th), and a 92.8 passer rating (13th). Two things that stand out as a passer are his time to throw (TTT) and touchdown/interception ratio:
Lawrence has the second quickest TTT of 2.4 seconds of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks, a +5 ratio (T-11th), with eight passing touchdowns (T-15th) to only three interceptions (T-fourth least). He’s making good decisions on his throws and getting the ball to his playmakers extremely quick on average.
QB Kenny Pickett is below average in both, with a 2.9 TTT (28th) and a +1 ratio on five passing touchdowns (T-27th) and four interceptions (T-10th least). He is coming off his best performance of 2023, despite no touchdowns which he can hopefully provide Sunday. Pickett now has 1,257 yards (23rd), a 60.9 completion rate (29th), and an 81.2 passer rating (27th).
Lawrence also presents a challenge as a runner:
He’s one of only six quarterbacks to eclipse 200 rushing yards this season, contributing to their sixth rank in team rushing yards to date. Pittsburgh did a good job against Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, so hopefully this isn’t a negative talking point after the game.
Lawrence has also been sacked 16 times (T-11th most) and fumbled seven times (T-second most). Hopefully this holds true as two of Pittsburgh’s strengths on defense (strong pass rush and splash plays).
RB Travis Etienne leads their backfield, one of only four players with 500-plus rushing yards:
This highlights a big challenge for the Steelers defense, who currently rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed, and 100-plus the last three games. Etienne also tops the league in some other key areas:
He has the most rushing attempts in the NFL (127), with 504 rushing yards (fourth), and seven rushing touchdowns (third). So, volume and he finds the endzone, but has a 4.0 YPC number (24th). Don’t let that fool you though, he has big play ability with six runs of 15-plus yards (T-third). He is also utilized often in the passing game, with 196 yards (fifth), 24 catches (eighth), with a -1.3 ADOT and an impressive 8.2 YPR (T-15th).
The Steelers running backs are below average on the visual, but both encouragingly etched a touchdown (finally) in an encouraging rushing performance last week. Najee Harris now has 77 rush attempts (25th), 300 yards (23rd), and 3.9 YPA (26th). As a receiver, he has 52 yards (45th) on a low eight catches (47th), a 1.2 ADOT (ninth), and 6.5 YPR (T-31st).
Jaylen Warren has 40 attempts (least of the 41 qualifiers), with 156 yards. 3.9 YPA as well, landing a tick above Harris in the ranks at 25th. He’s overtaken receiving duties overall this season, though he was a bit quiet last week. His 165 receiving yards ranks tenth, with 22 catches (11th), -1.6 ADOT and 7.5 YPR (23rd).
- Jacksonville’s most targeted at the position to date are Christian Kirk (52) and Calvin Ridley (47). Pittsburgh’s George Pickens also has 47 targets, with Allen Robinson II at 26, and 22 for Calvin Austin III. Jaguars TE Evan Engram is highly utilized as a receiver with 49 targets, which is second most in the matchup.
With this in mind, here are WR and TEs average intended air yards and separation through week seven:
The visual highlights a high correlation league-wide in the data, with more separation at less intended air yards. We can see this favoring the Jaguars in the matchup. Engram has 3.7 IAY (fourth least of 114 qualifiers), and enjoys 3.8 SEP in the process (12th most). This former makes sense with Lawrence’s quick TTT.
Kirk also fits the bill among WRs, at 8.0 IAY (79th) and 3.4 SEP (28th), succeeding with 474 yards (18th) and three touchdowns (T-14th). Ridley is on the other end of the spectrum, with the highest 13.3 IAY of the outlook (15th), 2.4 SEP (100th), 368 yards (39th), and two touchdowns (T-31st).
Pickens lands similarly on the chart with 13.1 IAY (20th) and 2.2 SEP that is seventh least. With Diontae Johnson returning last game, that number will hopefully improve with defenses giving him less attention. Pickens now has 500 yards (15th) and two touchdowns (T-31st). Austin lands on the lower right as well, with 11.7 IAY (33rd), 2.5 SEP (91st), 143 yards (104th), and one touchdown (T-57th). Robinson is the only player to land on the bottom left, with 6.5 IAY (94th), 2.7 SEP (71st), 144 yards (T-102nd), and no touchdowns.
- Engram is one of only three at the position with at least 40 receptions:
This reiterates the earlier points of how much Lawrence leans on him, a great security valve at around the line of scrimmage that could have a big game if Pittsburgh continues to play zone coverage at a high rate.
Here are OL PFF grades:
Jacksonville has two players on the top left with the best-balanced grades. RG Brandon Scherff (78.4 PBLK, 63.4 RBLK) highlights the expected starters on the chart. He hasn’t allowed a sack or a QB hit, with nine pressures allowed, but does have three penalties.
Walker Little (76.8 PBLK, 68.2 RBLK) looks set to return at LG, after starting the year at LT. Cam Robinson has manned that spot since, and has the best 83.4 PBLK in the matchup including four pressures and a sack in three games, but much lower 49.1 RBLK that’s second worst in the outlook. RT Anton Harrison (56.2 RBLK, 54.9 PBLK) has ten pressures and four sacks. Hopefully Pittsburgh’s edge rushers make a big impact as they do most weeks, with T.J. Watt seemingly having the more favorable matchup.
Rounding out their quality interior are C Luke Fortner (56.4 PBLK, 52.2 RBLK) and LG Tyler Shatley (51.7 PBLK, 45.5 RBLK). The former has the most snaps in the outlook (483), ten pressures and two sacks. Shatley has just three pressures, no sacks, and their only expected starter that is penalty free. Curiously, the majority of the Jaguars o-line are below average in RBLK according to PFF, despite their strong run game.
The Steelers o-line are trending positively after a strong showing, including LG Isaac Seumalo (65.2 PBLK, 63.3 RBLK). He’s allowed nine pressures, seven hurries, two QB hits. Impressively, he hasn’t allowed any sacks on 362 snaps, and was a crucial cog in the improved rushing attack that found the endzone thrice last week (77.7 RBLK, his best of 2023).
RT Chukwuma Okorafor is the final Pittsburgh starter above the mean in both (60.0 RBLK, 56.9 PBLK), also with his best game by far last week (77.5 PBLK, 74.5 RBLK). He’s allowed nine pressures, eight of which were hurries, one sack, but the most penalized in the matchup and tied for sixth most in 2023.
LT Dan Moore lands on the lower left due to early season struggles against tough matchups (53.0 RBLK, 27.0 PBLK), and had a nice performance last game returning from injury (76.6 PBLK, 75.0 RBLK). He draws the tough test of Jacksonville EDGE Josh Allen, who has seven sacks (T-fourth). Though Moore’s only been charged with one sack, he’s allowed a matchup high 21 pressures on the year (T- 12th most league-wide), 14 hurries (T-15th), and six QB hits (T-fifth).
For context, the second most pressures allowed in the matchup is C Mason Cole (58.4 RBLK, 31.6 PBLK). Nine hurries as well which is also second-most, and ties a team high three QB hits along with a sack. He did perform better in week seven, with no pressures or sacks, and his best individual grade of the year by far (83.7 PBLK). RG James Daniels (65.9 RBLK, 46.2 PBLK) is the other Steelers lineman to allow three QB hits.
Defense. Looking at baseline stats, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards, impressively. It’s a seemingly more favorable matchup in the pass game with them allowing the most passing yards in the NFL. Expected points added (EPA) tells a different story though:
Jacksonville is one of only six teams to land above the mean in both data points, ranking 12th against the run and stronger ninth pass defense. Being up in the majority of their games lends to more passing yards, and the EPA number sheds important light to being a tough challenge for Pittsburgh’s offense trying to keep their positive trend from last week going.
The Steelers defense ranks better in pass defense (7th), but three corners are questionable (Wallace, Porter Jr., Pierre), and a much lower 24th rank against the run. The latter is not what you want to see in the matchup with Jacksonville’s offense ranking sixth in team rushing. Here’s to hoping it’s another Steelers victory on Sunday.
Opponent Scouting Reports: Offense Defense
Injury Reports: Steelers Jaguars
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