The Pittsburgh Steelers will play their first game of the 2023 regular season at home on Sunday afternoon against the San Francisco 49ers and they’ll enter that contest listed as a slight underdog. Below are five key things that I believe the Steelers will need to do in the home game on Sunday to come away with their first win of 2023 season.
Not Just Any ANY/A – Don’t like the ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards Per Passing Attempt) stat? Tough, because you are getting one here to open the 2023 season. From 2018-2022, the Steelers are 43-16-2 (.705) when they hold their opposition to an ANY/A under 7.00. Last season they were 8-3 in such games. With that noted, 49ers QB Brock Purdy has yet to have had an under 7.00 ANY/A in his five regular season starts. That said, the 49ers were 2-4 in 2022 in regular season games in which their offense registered an ANY/A under 7.00.
The Steelers, on the other hand, were 6-8 in games that their offense registered an ANY/A under 7.00. The skinny here is that the Steelers chances of beating the 49ers on Sunday should increase quite a bit if they hold Purdy to his first ever under 7.00 ANY/A passing stat in a single game.
Deep Thoughts – The Steelers offense just wasn’t very good at delivering explosive plays in 2022 and especially when it came to their deep passing game. Sure, this 2023 Steelers offense probably wants bully ball to be their primary identity but that said, deep shots must be taken throughout the season and especially in Week One against the 49ers. Renown stat analyst Warren Sharp recently indicated in a video that the Steelers offense has a good reason to attack the 49ers defense down the field on Sunday and he provided stats to back that up.
“One key area where I think they could have some success attacking this Niners defense is a little bit of what we saw this preseason, some explosive passing,” Sharp said. “The 49ers are the number one pass defense when passes are thrown within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. But their efficiency last year dropped all the way to number 31 when teams threw the ball 15 plus yards down the field.”
So, the long and short of this, well mostly the long, is that Steelers QB Kenny Pickett needs to take his shots down the field on Sunday and likely to WR George Pickens as well. Last season, Pickett was 26 of 66 for 648 yards and three touchdowns on passes of 15 yards or more down the field. Pickens, on the other hand, had 20 receptions for 542 yards and two touchdowns on such air yard passes in 2022 on 38 total targets. If he Pickett connect on a few of those, it should keep the Steelers very much in the game.
No Special Blinking – Remember the last two Week One games the Steelers played? Both were on the road, and they were underdogs to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals in both of those contests. The Steelers won both of those games and the play of their special teams made a big difference in both games. Against the Bills two years ago, S Miles Killebrew blocked a punt to turn the tide. Against the Bengals last season, S Minkah Fitzpatrick blocked an extra point right at the end of regulation time to force that contest into overtime. That was obviously a game-saving play.
Will either team blink on Sunday when it comes to special teams? Maybe this contest against the 49ers comes down to the punt return game. WR Calvin Austin III had a great preseason returning punts for the Steelers. Can he bust a long one on Sunday? How about 49ers punt returner WR Ray-Ray McCloud, a former Steeler? He’s coming off a wrist injury for starters and on top of that, he’s had fumbling issues in the past on punt returns. The 49ers will also have a rookie kicker on Sunday in Jake Moody, who has recently dealt with a quad strain. Him making his NFL debut at Acrisure Stadium might not be a picnic.
Steelers special teams coordinator Danny Smith needs to have his rebuilt unit on point on Sunday. If he does, that phase of the game might just wind up being a difference-maker.
Thanks, Captain Obvious – Yeah, sure, turnovers play a big part when it comes to football games. That obvious statement aside, let’s look back at 2022 when it comes to the Steelers and the 49ers and turnovers.
Not surprisingly, the Steelers were 7-1 in 2022 when they did not turn the football over in a game. Five of those wins came from Week 10 and on. The first of those seven wins was in Week One versus the Bengals. The 49ers, on the other hand, were a perfect 7-0 in 2022 when they did not turn the football over. They were also a perfect 13-0 in 2022 when they won the turnover battle or it was equal. In all four of their 2022 loses the 49ers lost the turnover battle. The Steelers were 0-6 in 2022 win they lost the turnover battle outright.
The Steelers still have a developing quarterback in Pickett and it’s imperative that he and the team do the little things to beat a team like the 49ers on Sunday. Not turning the football over and getting one or two on defense or special teams will severely increase the Steelers odds of upsetting the 49ers.
So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance? – In five of the Steelers eight losses in 2022, they were within a touchdown or less. In four of those five losses, they entered the fourth quarter down less than seven pints. In short, they were in a lot of games last season entering the final quarter.
Pickett was credited with three fourth quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives as a rookie in 2022 and all four of those instances came after the team’s bye week. That was at least something to hang his hat on when it comes to his overall growth in 2022. He’ll likely face similar situations in 2023.
Summing this final key up, the Steelers need to keep this Sunday game against the 49ers close going into the fourth quarter if they’re not leading. If they can do that, at least Pickett should have another shot at delivering a fourth quarter comeback or even another game-winning drive. What a way that would be for him to start his second NFL season.
