After the first two preseason games, the Steelers’ hype train has taken off with numerous people hopping on the bandwagon. The first-team offense has only played 17 snaps through two preseason games, but those 17 snaps have resulted in three touchdowns on three drives, ending in explosive plays by RB Jaylen Warren, WR George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth. QB Kenny Pickett and the offense appear to be firing on all cylinders, making mincemeat of the Buccaneers defense in one drive in the preseason opener and doing the same on two drives against the Buffalo Bills this past Saturday.
This offensive efficiency and explosiveness have caused many media analysts to jump on the Pittsburgh hype train. They include Rich Eisen, who thinks it’s not an overreaction that Pittsburgh could win the AFC North in 2023, and former Steelers S Ryan Clark, who thinks Pittsburgh could be a major player in the AFC this season. Former Browns Gm Michael Lombardi pointed to Pittsburgh’s impressive performance against a Bills team that dismantled the Steelers last season, stating that they are prepared to make a lot of noise in 2023.
It seems like the NFL landscape has gone from calling the Steelers a fringe playoff team and potential sleeper in the AFC to a likely contender for the AFC throne overnight. While the offense has looked impressive through two preseason games, it feels like the hype is starting to get out of control.
Don’t get me wrong, I have been calling for a potential offensive explosion for Pittsburgh in 2023 well before this team reported to training camp. They have the plethora of weapons in the passing game as well as a beefed-up offensive line and two talented running backs that can be dual threats in the running game and passing game. Pickett is looking great in the action he’s seen thus far in his second season, possessing more confidence and chemistry with his weapons to effectively move the ball down the field and finish drives in the end zone.
However, much like Steelers Depot’s very own Josh Carney called for people to slow down on the George Pickens hype train just a bit, I’m doing the same for Pittsburgh offense.
There’s no denying this unit looks FAR better than it did a season ago. I mean, we’re taking about an offense that finished 26th in the league in points scored, 24th in the league in passing yards, and dead last in the league in passing touchdowns a season ago. Those are easy numbers to improve on, but it can be stretch to expect this team to shift the complete opposite direction and finish in the top 10 in each category after just one season.
While the offense has looked sharp through two preseason games, you must look at the sample size and competition, taking both variables into account. The Buccaneers sat most of their starters on defense in the first preseason game, allowing Pittsburgh to go against a bunch of second stringers with its first-team offense. The Buffalo Bills did play a lot of their starters on defense, but one drive was aided with a big punt return by WR Calvin Austin III while Pittsburgh ripped off a 62-yard TD run, one in which C Mason Cole has called an anomaly by most standards in the NFL.
On top of that, the sample size is small considering that Pittsburgh’s three offensive drives with its starters have only been 17 plays. While that speaks to the effectiveness of the unit as a whole, more of a sample size is needed to see exactly what this offense may look like when the regular season arrives. You also have to take into consideration the competition Pittsburgh will be facing once the regular season starts, including the San Francisco 49ers and their vaunted defense to open things up Week One of the 2023 season.
I’m not trying to say here that Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t going to show notable improvement this season. Based on where they were in 2022, that shouldn’t be a high bar to clear. What I am saying that it may be a bit negligent to expect Pittsburgh’s offense to reach the heights of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals on a week-to-week basis in the AFC after being near the bottom of the league last season.
HC Mike Tomlin himself said that he doesn’t expect Pickett to outduel the top quarterbacks in the division this season. Hence why the Steelers built the roster the way they did to run the ball and play good defense while giving Pickett the weapons to succeed through the air, but not having to win on his arm every game.
Therefore, I would say it’s fair to be optimistic about Pittsburgh and their offense heading into the regular season, but that the hype train needs to slow down. Sure, we may see a complete shift in the offensive production for the Steelers much like the Bengals did from QB Joe Burrow’s rookie year to his second year after he got WR Ja’Marr Chase and the offense took off. However, that isn’t the most likely scenario and expectations need to be managed until the Steelers can show that they can keep this effective, efficient play on offense going throughout an entire game and carry it from week to week.
