The Pittsburgh Steelers turned their 2022 season around not just with a more effective ground game, not just with T.J. Watt’s return, but by taking unbelievable care of the football. Eliminate turnovers and you immediately give yourself a chance to win games.
After throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, QB Kenny Pickett threw only pick following the team’s bye week, the Steelers going 7-2 down the stretch and nearly making the playoffs are looking dead in the water. Intentionally, Pittsburgh was hyper-conservative and that choice paid off.
Through the first month of 2023, a full training camp and three preseason games, Pickett and this Steelers’ offense is taking more shots. But he’s still protecting the football.
Through the 2023 training camp, Pickett threw just one interception during the Steelers’ team period. That came during an early two-minute drill, his sideline throw for WR Cody White jumped and snatched by CB Joey Porter Jr., who made a great sliding catch to end the drive. So far this year, it’s been the only 11v11 pick Pickett’s thrown. In three preseason games, Pickett was just about perfect, completing 13-of-15 passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Meaning, over his last 417 pass attempts (224 after the bye, 178 in camp, 15 in the preseason), Pickett’s thrown only two interceptions. That’s a 0.5-percent interception rate. Comparatively, the QB with the NFL’s lowest/best interception rate last season was the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones at 1.1-percent, putting Pickett’s percentage at half of that.
Just as importantly, Pickett doesn’t look as conservative as a year ago. He pushed the ball downfield in camp, he took some risks, and certainly had no qualms about airing it out in preseason action. A perfectly thrown ball to Pat Freiermuth for a touchdown against Buffalo, two vertical shots complete to Diontae Johnson and George Pickens versus Atlanta. He’s not checking down and preserving his lack of interceptions by throwing three yard dumpoffs. He’s found a good balance.
Of course, interceptions can be fluky. And it’s not always a quarterback stat. A pass off a receiver’s hands, someone running the wrong route, there’s a half-dozen different variables that can lead to picks that aren’t the quarterback’s fault. The opposite is also true. A safety who drops a pass thrown right at him means a quarterback got lucky. It’s reasonable to expect some interception “regression” of the opposite kind. He won’t have a 0.5-percent interception rate this season. That’d be historic (the only two QBs with at least 400 attempts in a season with that kind of interception rate are 2016 Tom Brady and 2018 Aaron Rodgers).
But the point is this. Pickett is doing the number one job of a quarterback. Protect. The. Football. Pittsburgh still isn’t equipped to be a team that turns the ball over a ton and and still be competitive. Few teams are. While it’s exciting to see the Steelers’ offense grow and expand and create big plays, the nuts and bolts are rooted in ball security and not giving away possessions to the other team. If Pittsburgh keeps that up in 2023, they’ll be a playoff squad.
