Nearing the end of the series, I wanted to provide one more data article on Markus Golden, following my 2021 pass rush article, along with 2022 pass rush and run defense studies. Today I wanted to look at run defense data from the 2021 season on Golden, along with 2021 Steelers, and see how they fared across the NFL at the position.
Let’s get right to it, starting with run snaps (minimum of 150) and average tackle depth on such plays from PFF to get a gauge of the position comparatively.
The 2021 Steelers each land above the mean in both data points, encouragingly. Alex Highsmith had 342 run snaps which was the fourth most of the 84 qualifying edge rushers. His 1.9 average tackle depth was also strong considering this (T-24th), and impressively was the only player in the top five in run snaps with an above average tackle depth. Highsmith was also utilized often in the run game last season, ranking 11th in the NFL in run snaps (354), but had a bit lower 2.2 average tackle depth (T-35th), landing slightly above average in both once again.
In 2021, T.J. Watt had the best 1.5 average depth of tackle of the highlighted players in each season, which fared very well across the NFL, tying for 14th in 2021 and 13th last season. This came on 297 run snaps (21st) in 2021, compared to just 189 last season (65th) when he was injured.
After a substantial drop off we see Golden, who was below the mean in both. His 233 run snaps in 2021 ranked 41st, while his 2.6 average tackle depth tied for 46th. The good news is he provided more last year, particularly with a stronger 1.7 average tackle depth that tied for 19th best in the league on 267 run snaps (38th). Though Golden was on the field far more in passing situations each season, it’s encouraging to see the positive strides he made in this regard in 2022 that will hopefully continue in Pittsburgh.
Now let’s look at types of tackles, solo versus assisted tackles against the run:
Highsmith impressively led NFL edge rushers in solo run tackles in 2021 with 41, and also tied for a strong third rank in assists (13). He was also above the mean in both last year on similar run snap opportunities, but wasn’t as gaudy in terms of tackle totals, with 26 solo run tackles (T-22nd) and 10 assists (T-18th).
Here’s to hoping this season is closer to his notable 2021 campaign in this regard. Watt was also above average in both, with his 26 solo run tackles in 2021 tying for 13th, along with nine assists (T-23rd), but of course landed lower in the totals due in less opportunity last season, with 18 solo run tackles (T-53rd) and five assists (T-68th). Seeing both Pittsburgh starting edge rushers fare so well in 2021 is encouraging, and is one of the many ways to highlight the importance for a healthy season for Watt (pretty please).
Golden is a great overall insurance plan for the irreplaceable, but we can see he made far less of an impact in the run game including tackling in 2021, particularly with only two assists which was fifth least (80th) of the qualifying players. He was just above the mean in solo run tackles though, tying for 35th. Last season, Golden provided much more in the assisted variety (16), a substantial jump to sixth in the NFL, but fell below average with 18 solo run tackles (T-53rd) on a bit more snaps. Lack of consistency for sure, and it will be very interesting to see how he fares this season as a run tackler.
Next, I wanted to see how the players fared in a ‘hit or miss’ type view with stop percentage, which uses the successful play rates formula (less than 40% on first down, 50% or less on second down, and third or fourth down plays kept from a first down or touchdown) and missed tackle percentage:
What jumps out right away is all three focused players being above the league mean in stop percentage. Most notable is Highsmith again, with a 9.6% stop rate in 2021 that was fourth best in the NFL, along with a respectable 6.9% missed tackle rate that tied for 21st, which is very respectable given his volume. This was the biggest area of regression for Highsmith in 2022, when he was below the mean in both, with a 5.2% stop rate that tied for 59th, and a 16.3% missed tackle rate that more than doubled and ranked a lowly 73rd across the league.
In 2021, Watt had a 6.9% stop rate that tied for 29th in the NFL, but the other side of the coin was an 18.6% missed tackle rate that ranked a lowly 73rd, a low light in his Defensive Player of The Year campaign. He was encouragingly improved in both last season, particularly with a great 4.2% missed tackle percentage in these situations that tied for 13th in the NFL, and a solid 7.5% stop rate that ranked 18th, but important to recall it coming on less opportunity.
Golden had the second-best stop percentage of the highlighted players (7.1%) and ranked 27th in 2021, but the extremely discouraging thing to see is a whopping 28.1% missed tackle rate that was second worst in the NFL. Last season he was much stronger in the latter with a well above average 5.6% missed tackle rate (T-20th), an exciting positive change last season, but I’m tempering optimism with the recently abysmal 2021 number in mind. These data points will definitely be high on my radar to see how they all fare in 2023, considering each had inconsistent results the last two seasons.
To close, let’s look at a more total view of how the players fared in the run game with PFF run defense grades along with points above replacement (the difference between the player’s points above average and a replacement level player in the same facet of the game) from Sports Info Solutions (SIS):
Watt tops the players in our sight in this view, ranking strongest in PAR at seventh, along with a 70.1 PFF run defense grade that ranked 14th. He was also above average in both last season, with a particularly stronger 77.1 run defense grade (11th) compared to tying for a lower 27th in PAR, his lowest result the last two seasons. Highsmith was also above average in both in 2021 as expected from the earlier data, with a 66.5 run defense grade (T-25th), and his PAR tying for 32nd. In comparison, his 73.3 run defense grade was also well above average in 2022 which improved to 19th, but his PAR fell slightly below the mean and ranked 47th.
All three players landed above the mean in the PFF grades in 2021 including Golden, whose 63.9 number tied for 28th, while his PAR was below average (T-51st). Last season, he fared much stronger in terms of PAR ranking an impressive seventh in the NFL, and his 65.1 run defense grade ranked 42nd, putting him above average in both data points.
So, Golden has provided great availability the last two seasons, which is impressive at his age (32) and bodes well for Pittsburgh with Watt’s injury fresh on their mind. His impact has been greater as a pass rusher overall and had far more snap opportunities in those situations as highlighted throughout the series. The above average aspects of Golden’s run defense in 2021 were stop rate (27th), run defense grade (28th), and solo run tackles (T-35th), while he was below average in run snaps (41st), average tackle depth (46th), PAR (T-51st), and was particularly low among his peers in assists (80th) and missed tackle rate (83rd), which were each in the bottom five at the position.
While he made some encouraging improvements in 2022, his results were very inconsistent the last two years and has me cautiously optimistic.
Golden’s strongest metrics last year were PAR (seventh), along with top 20 results in average tackle depth (including nine tackles for loss), assisted run tackles, and missed tackle rate, which are all encouraging but was notably below average in previously. He also had an above average number of run snaps and PFF run defense grade in 2022, while he was only below the mean in solo run tackles and stop percentage (above average in 2021). This is important context to what Golden can hopefully provide in 2023, namely more consistency as a depth piece barring injury (knocks on wood), and can’t wait to see how it unfolds.
What are your takeaways from the data? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
