Quarterback performance under pressure is a key component to playing the position, and the goal of this article is to look at how Kenny Pickett fared in these situations. I will also include data when quarterbacks were kept clean from Pro Football Focus (PFF) for comparative context, charting PFF passing grades in those situations, seeing how Pickett fared among his peers in 2022, as well as the first and second half of the season to see how things progressed.
Here are the results of quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 dropbacks under pressure during the regular season:
Pickett stands out clearly at the top of the chart with an extremely respectable second ranked 69.2 PFF passing grade under pressure out of the 32 qualifying players in his rookie season, bested only by a great quarterback in Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. For further context, Pickett had 140 dropbacks (19th) that resulted in pressure (31.5%) and sacked 27 times (T-18th), with 99 pressure attempts (T-20th), 48 completions (T-18th), a 48.5% completion rate (14th), 514 yards (23rd), 5.2 yards per attempt (25th), two touchdowns (T-27th), and just two interceptions (T-fifth).
Pickett didn’t have the same level of opportunities of other quarterbacks, and the biggest positive takeaway so far is he did not turn the football over comparatively in terms of interceptions, staying cool under pressure, while he ranked lower in yardage and scoring unfortunately which was not limited to this aspect of play. Many encouraging aspects of play for Pickett so early in his career under pressure, above several respectable and successful names at the position.
Some other factors that PFF measures were notable, including a 5.5 big time throw rate (ninth), which is a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window, with many of Pickett’s coming in the latter. This emphasizes his strength in accuracy, and making tough throws at a well above average rate despite pressure among his peers. Even more impressive was his 2.6% turnover worthy play rate that tied for second, and here’s to hoping he has a similar (or better) 2023 season in these percentages.
When kept clean, Pickett landed in a much different spot with a 72.2 PFF passing grade that ranked 25th. This included 304 dropbacks (20th), 290 attempts (T-20th), 197 completions (22nd), a 67.9% completion percentage (25th), 1,890 yards (24th), seven of his nine interceptions (T-21st), but most discouraging was a 6.5 yards per attempt and only five touchdowns which each tied for last in more ideal circumstances.
That obviously must improve for Pickett in year two. On the more optimistic side, he still had formidable 3.9% big time throw and 2.5% turnover worthy play rates, ranking closer to average at 17th and tied for 12th in the latter, though you’d like those numbers to be closer to his stellar under pressure results.
Let’s see how the quarterbacks fared the first half of the season:
As expected, Pickett lands on a less desirable spot on the visual. His 56.6 grade under pressure was still above average and ranked 12th, but his 60.8 kept clean grade was next to last among the qualifying quarterbacks in the first half of the season. In terms of under pressure stats from weeks one through nine, Pickett had 54 such dropbacks (T-30th) in less playing time to begin the season, accounting for 28.3% of his passes (23rd), 34 attempts (30th), 20 completions (27th), 181 yards (30th), 5.3 yards per attempt (T-22nd), no touchdowns and one interception. Pickett also had a 4.9% big time throw rate that ranked 12th, along with a 4.8% turnover worthy play rate that ranked 17th, so also lower than his overall season results.
The most encouraging bright spot by far was a 58.8% completion rate that ranked a strong second, but the other low data ranks give context to the limited offense the Steelers employed, and the lack of success that occurred early in the 2022 season.
His lowly kept clean result the first nine weeks included 137 dropbacks (27th), which were 71.7% of his passes (ninth most), 131 attempts (26th), 92 completions (26th), a 70.2% completion rate (17th), 781 yards (29th), along with a 0.7% big time throw rate (T-30th) and 3.5% turnover worthy play rate (27th). He was particularly poor with just 6.0 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and a whopping seven of his nine interceptions which all ranked dead last. Not great Bob, and highlights clearly to just how bad the growing pains were to start the 2022 season.
To close, let’s see how Pickett fared at the end of his rookie year:
Here we see the desired positive trajectory that Pickett and the team provided after the bye week, landing on a much better point on the graph. He matched his full season under pressure grade rank of second (75.5), and substantially improved to a 78.1 kept clean grade that ranked 15th, landing him at the mean of the qualifying quarterbacks. Under pressure the last half of 2022, Pickett had 86 dropbacks (13th), which were 34% of his passes (14th), 65 attempts (13th), 28 completions (T-14th), a 43.1% completion percentage (21st), 333 yards (15th), 5.1 yards per attempt (22nd), but just two touchdowns and one interception, 5.8% big time throw rate (T-eighth).
Largely an encouraging improvement, with the most notable positive being a 1.1% turnover worthy play rate that was the best at the position to end the year. Here’s to hoping Pickett can keep this momentum he ended the 2022 season with, and hopefully provide even more this year.
Where Pickett has to be more consistent in year two is in situations where he is kept clean, and it’s reasonable to be optimistic with the positive trend we see in the visuals. In the last half of the 2022 season, Pickett had 167 dropbacks (16th), accounting for 66% of his plays (15th), 159 attempts (16th), 105 completions (17th), with a substantial bump to a 6.4% big time throw rate (second) and 1.7% turnover worthy play rate (11th), but a lower 66% completion percentage (T-23rd) as the offense opened up more, along with 1,109 yards (20th), 7.0 yards per attempt (24th), three touchdowns, and encouragingly no interceptions.
The data in the article gives great context to the vast improvements Kenny Pickett made throughout his 2022 rookie season, and I hope you enjoyed seeing the stats to back up the film. Here’s to hoping Pickett has a strong 2023, particularly with more consistency his second year, while providing more yardage and scoring being high on my radar as well.
What are your thoughts on the data from 2022? Do you think Pickett and the 2023 offense will improve in this regard? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
