Fourth quarter passing performance is an extremely important aspect to quarterback play and team success. Today I wanted to look at and provide data on quarterback Kenny Pickett’s rookie year for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this regard. The main stat I would like to provide is a favorite here at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). This factors in several important elements into one metric: passing yards + 20 [passing TDs] – 45 [interceptions] – sack yards/attempts + sacks. This is a valuable stat and for the situation, so I’ll look at NFL quarterbacks with a minimum of 60 regular-season pass attempts in the fourth quarter, along with how the first and last half of year progressed.
Here are the 2022 regular season results:
Over the 2022 season, Pickett landed towards the bottom of the NFL with a 4.2 regular season ANY/A in the fourth quarter that ranked 31st out of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks. As we can see, this was another aspect of Pickett’s rookie season that must be better in Year Two. Let’s add more context to his fourth quarter ANY/A: 120 attempts (18th), 799 yards (16th), just two touchdowns for a 1.7 percent TD rate (33rd), compared to five interceptions (third most) for a 4.2 interception percentage (T-29th), and 11 sacks (T-27th) for an 8.2 percent sack rate (28th). So, very low marks in terms of quality, with his -3 touchdown/interception ratio that must be cleaned up for a hopefully more consistent and successful 2023 season.
Some other telling numbers include a 61.7 completion percentage (19th), compared to a strong 79.2 percent on target rate that ranked solidly at seventh, emphasizing the Steelers’ supporting cast needing to step up more in 2023 for its signal caller. The most important aspect in the fourth quarter is when the team is down, back against the wall, and the quarterback needs to lead the squad to victory. In these terms, Pickett had three fourth quarter comebacks, tying for eighth most in 2022. Of course, a solid team would not be in these situations too often in the first place, but an encouraging element of Pickett’s fourth quarter performance, nonetheless.
Let’s dive deeper and see how Pickett fared in the first half of the year (weeks 1-9) for more context:
This visual really emphasizes Pittsburgh’s 2022 season being a tale of two halves in the fourth quarter, with the first half of the year being the painful chapter. In the first nine weeks of the season, Pickett had an abysmal 1.1 ANY/A in the fourth quarter that ranked dead last, over an entire yard less that any qualifying quarterback (yikes). Recalling Pittsburgh’s 1-4 record when Pickett played during this span really sheds light to the early season struggles, and considering the one win was when Pickett was concussed, and quarterback Mitch Trubisky finished the game. Two of the losses were blowouts. The other two were one-possession games that could have turned the tide of the season for Pittsburgh and highlights no fourth quarter comebacks for Pickett to start the first half of his rookie year.
Let’s add more context to Pickett’s fourth quarter ANY/A the first nine weeks of 2022: 54 attempts (T-22nd), 315 yards (27th), no touchdowns, all five of his fourth quarter interceptions on the season for a 9.3 interception rate that both ranked dead last, five sacks for an 8.1 percent sack rate (29th), a 61.1 completion percentage (23rd), and the strongest result by far an 81.3 percent on target rate (fifth). Pickett clearly struggled, but his impressive on target rate highlights it being a team struggle that was not entirely on him. Here’s to hoping the 2023 group that is largely returning can gel right out of the gate and throughout the season, especially in these situations when the game is on the line.
To close, here’s how things progressed the last half of 2022 (Weeks 10-18):
Here we see a very encouraging improvement from Pickett, jumping up to a 6.8 ANY/A in the fourth quarter the last nine weeks of 2022, which impressively ranked 13th. His performance was night and day, ending the season very well as you’d hope from a rookie, and highlighted by all three fourth quarter comebacks coming in this span. It’s hard to ignore Pittsburgh’s much better 6-2 record in the eight games Pickett played to end the season as well, emphasizing how important this facet of the game is, and the positive trajectory aligning with the Steelers’ much stronger play to end the year.
In the last half of 2022, Pickett had 66 attempts (10th), 484 yards (11th), with both of his regular-season touchdowns coming in the timeframe for a 3 percent touchdown rate (24th), impressively no interceptions (compared to five the first nine weeks), while being sacked a tick more at six times for an 8.3 sack percentage (T-24th), a 62.1 completion percentage (18th), and 77.6 percent on target rate (10th).
Largely improved for sure, particularly taking care of the football along with a +2 TD/INT ratio, while a big goal should obviously be more scoring. Another less obvious takeaway were his completion rates, improving slightly in overall completion percentage as the Steelers’ supporting cast improved overall, but Pickett regressed a bit in on target percentage. The latter ranked in the top 10 in each period of the season though, impressively displaying well above average accuracy in comparison to his peers in clutch time throughout his rookie season. Hopefully we see similar accuracy from Pickett in these situations, considering the identity Pittsburgh has assembled for 2023 that will likely keep games close, building on the overall strides he (and the offense) made to end the year, with the biggest leap needing to come on the scoreboard.
What are your thoughts on the data from 2022? Do you think Pickett and the 2023 offense will improve in this regard? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
