Accuracy is a very important element for an effective offense in today’s NFL, and one of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett’s perceived strengths according to many evaluators. Adjusted completion percentage attempts to do that, and I wanted to look at that stat courtesy of Pro Football Focus (PFF), and how Pickett fared among his peers in 2022 throughout the first half, last half, and the full regular season.
PFF describes adjusted completion percentage as accounting for factors that hurt the passer’s completion percentage but don’t help show how accurate they are. It accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and passes where the QB was hit while they threw the ball.
Here’s the formula: ((Completions + Drops) / (Attempts – Throw Aways – Spikes – Batted Passes – Hit As Thrown)).
Let’s see how the quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 dropbacks fared during the full regular season:
Pickett lands quite a bit lower than expected in the ranks, with a 73.3 adjusted completion percentage for 2022 on the whole, which ranked 26th among the 35 qualifying quarterbacks. There are of course many factors that play into the results, such as the scheme, depth of passes, etc., but I was definitely surprised to see Pickett land where he did. For more context, Pickett had 444 dropbacks (18th), 389 attempts (21st), 245 completions (22nd), with 19 drops (15th), for a 7.2 drop rate (T-12th), 18 throwaways (T-19th), eight batted passes (T-17th), a spike, and hit as he threw twice.
The big takeaways are many of the plays factored in the adjusted completion percentages hurt Pickett’s overall 63% completion percentage on the season, namely drops, and while he was under pressure quite a bit in 2022, it sure felt like the hit as thrown number would have been higher.
This also raises the question that several readers bring up and I wonder myself, was there a positive trajectory towards the end of the year, as was the case in many areas for the 2022 Steelers on both sides of the ball?
Let’s take a look, starting with weeks 1-9:
Here we see a much better rank for Pickett, tying for 13th in the first nine games of the season, with a 75.8 adjusted completion percentage. This makes sense after charting Pickett’s rookie year, with the offense easing him in schematically, and primarily making short/high percentage throws overall to start the season.
Pickett played in five games in this span, when seven of the 19 drops came (36.8%) for a drop rate of 5.1%, two of his eight batted passes, was not hit as he threw, along with five of his 18 throwaways (27.8). So stronger (and safer) play that unfortunately did not lead to winning. The comparative context across the league is also very interesting, highlighted by Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts topping the list, which makes sense as Philadelphia began the 2022 season on a tear.
Now let’s see how the quarterbacks fared the latter half of the 2022 regular season (weeks 10-18):
This is where we see the dropoff, with Pickett’s 71.4 adjusted completion percentage matching his overall 2022 regular season rank of 26th. This makes sense considering the Steelers put more and more on his plate throughout his rookie year, and as most rookies do, had growing pains in the process.
One of these aspects was more deep passing, and while the frequency didn’t astonish us as fans last year, Pickett did push the ball down the field more in the latter part of the year overall, contributing to the lower number. In the span came 12 of the 19 drops on the season (63.2%), for a much higher drop rate of 25.8% than the first half of the year. Also, six of his eight batted passes came in the last four games, along with a whopping 13 of his 18 throwaways (72.2%).
So, with Pickett expected to take on more right out of the gate in his second season, the big hope and takeaway that the data emphasizes is what we’ve been talking about at Steelers Depot. Pickett must make the expected leap we’re all hoping for, along with the offense as a whole who is largely returning with more experience under their belt and more familiarity together. Here’s to hoping the 2023 can open things up more as well, while being a more successful unit than last season, with all parties needing to step up. All reasonable expectations in my opinion, and can’t wait to see how it plays out.
What are your thoughts on the data from 2022? Do you think Pickett and the 2023 offense will improve in this regard? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
