While wide receiver Diontae Johnson objectively had a down year in 2022, it seems like most agree he will be given every chance possible to bounce back in 2023.
It’s no secret that Johnson didn’t find the end zone last season, and even considering the Steelers’ lack of passing success as a team, this was a disappointment. Johnson was coming off of a 2021 campaign that saw him make the Pro Bowl while racking up 1161 yards and eight touchdowns, as well as over 100 receptions. The question is – can he ever get back to these numbers?
We will focus on one specific mark here, the all-important 1,000 yards. Johnson wasn’t all that far off with 882 last season, and very well could get there this year.
Despite the potential emergence of George Pickens, Johnson is still the wide receiver one in this offense until proven otherwise in my mind. He’s the most established, and despite Pickens’ knack to make the spectacular catch, probably still the most talented as well.
In ESPN’s recent projections by Mike Clay, he has Johnson racking up 960 yards, just short of the 1k mark. But what is more interesting is the fact that he has Johnson at 126 targets, which places him in the top 10 of the NFL. He’s ahead of big names at the position, such as the Miami Dolphin’s Jaylen Waddle, and the Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. His projected target percentage of 24% would also place him in the top 20 in the NFL.
Last season, Johnson also had at least seven targets in all but three games, as he finished with 147 targets on the year. So there’s precedent for Johnson as a high-volume receiver when it comes to targets.
To me, this target projection is what makes me confident that he has a real shot at 1,000 yards. He doesn’t have elite hands, but a 4.8 percent drop rate on the volume he received last season is nothing to sneeze at. With some consistency at the quarterback position, and hopefully Kenny Pickett taking a step forward this year, his wealth of targets should translate into more production.
While 1,000 yards is far from a lock, I think Johnson is being undersold right now by a lot of people. It’s very hard to picture Kenny Pickett being worse than last year, and the Vegas odds that have his over/under in the low 800s for yards feel strange. He had 882 last year, he’s going to get targets, and he’s someone the organization believes in. Add in a budding relationship with Kenny Pickett, and there seem to be a lot of factors that could participate in his positive regression in 2023.
